XRP Price Prediction: Can Ripple Break $1.20 After an 8% Weekly Surge?

XRP has emerged as one of the strongest-performing large-cap cryptocurrencies at the start of July, rebounding by more than 8% over the past week and by more than 13% from its recent lows.

The rally has been driven by a combination of improving technical momentum, renewed optimism over US crypto regulation, and fresh institutional inflows into XRP investment products.

However, despite the impressive recovery, Ripple’s native token is approaching one of its most important technical barriers of 2026.

The $1.17-$1.20 region has repeatedly capped bullish advances in recent weeks, and whether buyers can reclaim this level may determine if XRP is beginning a broader trend reversal or simply experiencing another relief rally within a larger downtrend.

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XRP Bulls Regain Momentum, but the Broader Trend Remains Unchanged

From a technical perspective, XRP has made significant progress since defending the $1.02-$1.06 support zone.

That area produced a classic bullish divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), with momentum strengthening even as price briefly made lower lows, a pattern that often signals seller exhaustion.

The rebound has since carried XRP back toward the upper portion of its recent trading range, while the RSI has climbed above its midpoint, indicating improving buying momentum.

Even so, the bigger picture remains mixed.

XRP/USD 4-hour chart. | Credit: TradingView

On the daily chart, XRP continues to trade inside a long-term descending channel and remains below both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages.

These indicators continue to act as dynamic resistance, suggesting that the market has yet to fully escape its broader corrective phase.

The first challenge for bulls lies between $1.17 and $1.24, a region that previously acted as support before June’s selloff. Now that support has flipped into resistance, making it a key battleground between buyers and sellers.

A decisive close above that range would improve the technical outlook considerably and could pave the way for another attempt toward $1.30 and potentially the former breakdown zone beyond.

Failure, however, could send XRP back toward the $1.10-$1.06 support area, where buyers would once again need to defend the recovery.

Regulation and ETF Inflows Are Supporting the Recovery

Technical factors are only part of XRP’s recent strength.

The token has also benefited from improving macro and regulatory sentiment following progress on the CLARITY Act in the US.

The proposed legislation could provide greater legal clarity for digital assets by defining the respective roles of the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.

Optimism surrounding the bill has encouraged investors to rotate back into assets viewed as potential beneficiaries of a clearer regulatory framework, with XRP among the biggest gainers.

XRP ETFs attracted approximately $6.55 million in daily inflows. | Credit: xrp-insights.com

Institutional demand has also remained supportive.

According to recent fund flow data, XRP investment products attracted approximately $6.55 million in daily inflows, bringing cumulative inflows to nearly $1.5 billion.

At the same time, Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs also returned to positive net flows, reflecting a broader improvement in crypto market sentiment after weaker-than-expected US employment data strengthened expectations for future Federal Reserve rate cuts.

Seasonality is another factor working in XRP’s favor. Historical data from CryptoRank shows July has been one of XRP’s strongest months, delivering positive returns in each of the past seven years and averaging gains of more than 10% since 2013.

While history never guarantees future performance, the seasonal trend may reinforce bullish sentiment if technical resistance begins to break.

Why the $1.20 Level Could Decide XRP’s Next Move

Although momentum has shifted in favor of buyers, the market has not yet delivered a convincing breakout.

On the four-hour chart, XRP has climbed back to a descending trendline that has defined lower highs since mid-June. This trendline intersects almost perfectly with the psychologically important $1.20 level, creating a significant technical barrier.

A breakout above $1.20 could trigger additional buying momentum as traders target the broader $1.25-$1.30 resistance zone. Some analysts believe such a move would confirm the beginning of a larger structural reversal after weeks of sustained selling pressure.

However, there are reasons for caution.

The seven-day RSI has entered overbought territory after the recent rally, while trading volume has cooled following the initial surge.

Meanwhile, Bitfinex data shows XRP/USD long positions jumped sharply over the weekend. Although rising leverage reflects growing bullish conviction, it also increases the risk of volatility if prices fail to extend higher, potentially triggering a wave of long liquidations.

In the near term, traders will likely focus on two levels. A sustained move above $1.20 would strengthen the bullish case and shift attention toward $1.25 and beyond.

Conversely, losing support around $1.10 could expose XRP to another decline toward the psychologically important $1.00 mark.

Can Ripple Break $1.20 After an 8% Weekly Surge? Key Levels to Watch

XRP Bulls Regain Momentum, but the Broader Trend Remains Unchanged

Regulation and ETF Inflows Are Supporting the Recovery

Why the $1.20 Level Could Decide XRP’s Next Move

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