Stellar (XLM) Price Inches Closer to Breakout — April Rally Awaits

Key Takeaways

• Stellar (XLM) trades inside a descending wedge pattern.
• The XLM price has increased since bouncing on March 11.
• Can XLM break out from its wedge and increase in April?
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After staying dormant for most of the crypto market cycle, Stellar finally rallied in November 2024, increasing over 600% in less than one month.

The XLM price has trended downward in 2025, mirroring a broader crypto market trend. However, its decline has been milder compared to many other altcoins.

With a bullish pattern forming, the XLM price movement is much more positive than other notable altcoins, hinting at a strong rebound in April.

Stellar’s Lengthy Consolidation

The XLM price has decreased gradually since its cycle high of $0.636 on Nov. 4, 2024. The decrease is contained in a descending wedge, considered a bullish pattern.

Since the XLM price is nearing the end of the pattern, an eventual breakout is the most likely future outlook.

Several other factors indicate a breakout is the most likely future outlook, the first of which is reclaiming the $0.280 horizontal resistance area.

The second is technical indicator readings, evident in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD).

The MACD generated a bullish divergence before the rally, coinciding with the March 11 bounce at the wedge’s support trend line (green icon).

So, the daily time frame suggests XLM will break out, with the first target at the $0.384 Fibonacci retracement resistance level.

Will XLM Break Out?

The daily time frame wave count supports the possibility of an XLM breakout from its wedge.

Stellar’s wave count shows a completed five-wave decline (red) inside the wedge, likely to be a leading diagonal.

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While this suggests that the breakout will be a relief rally, it predicts an upward movement will occur.

If the count is accurate, XLM is in wave A of an A-B-C corrective structure (green), which will take the XLM price to the 0.382-0.5 Fibonacci retracement resistance range at $0.388 – $0.435.

On the other hand, a rejection from the wedge’s resistance trend line will likely cause a decline to its support trend line at $0.215.

Crucially, this would not invalidate the bullish wave count but would only delay the eventual breakout.

April Will Be Bullish

Stellar has cooled down after its rapid increase in November 2024, but its fall has not been as sharp as in the rest of the crypto market.

The outlook for April is positive. We expect a breakout from the wedge and an increase toward $0.388-$0.435.

In the bearish scenario that XLM fails to break out from the wedge on the first try, the price would still likely break out in the second half of April.