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Stellar (XLM) Downtrend Likely to Continue Without Bullish Confirmation

Published 03 April 2026
Victor Olanrewaju
Authors

Key Takeaways

  • XLM remains weak below resistance as momentum fades; price continues to stall near $0.16.
  • A tight range between $0.15 support and $0.18 resistance suggests consolidation.
  • Flat funding rates signal indecision, yet the outlook suggests another decline is ahead.

Stellar (XLM) is under pressure again. The altcoin’s price has stalled near $0.16 after repeated rejections at higher levels.

At the same time, momentum is fading, and buyers are losing strength.  Although volatility is tightening, the setup leans bearish.

Unless bulls step in, XLM’s price might extend the recent correction.

XLM Faces Momentum Loss

XLM is losing momentum. The price is hovering near $0.16 after multiple failed attempts to push higher.

At the same time, volatility is compressing. This signals a potential breakout phase ahead. However, direction remains uncertain.

On the 4-hour chart, XLM continues to trade within a well-defined horizontal range. XLM’s price has repeatedly held $0.15 support while facing rejection near the $0.18 resistance zone.

However, recent price action shows hesitation. Lower highs are forming.

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At the same time, upside attempts lack follow-through. This suggests buyers are gradually losing control.

As a result, the range is tightening. A decisive move is likely approaching.

The current structure points to compression. XLM’s price is moving sideways with decreasing volatility.

If XLM breaks below $0.160, downside pressure could accelerate toward $0.14. A loss of this key support may open the door to deeper declines.

Momentum is clearly fading. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has crossed bearish.

XLM price analysis
XLM/USD 4-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

Histogram bars are now printing red, signaling weakening upside momentum. Meanwhile, the signal lines are trending downward, confirming the shift.

At the same time, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator remains in negative territory. This indicates sellers are gaining dominance in the short term.

Funding Rate Shows Hesitation

The derivative’s picture mirrors this hesitation. The funding rate continues to hover near neutral, signaling a cautious market even as XLM’s price stabilizes around $0.16.

While short bursts of positive funding point to intermittent long interest, repeated negative prints still expose a lingering bearish bias.

More importantly, the disconnect between flat funding and a gradually declining price highlights weak conviction on both sides.

With positioning largely balanced, the market lacks a clear aggressor.

XLM price on-chain analysis shorts
XLM Funding Rate | Credit: Coinglass

However, this kind of equilibrium rarely lasts. So, any shift in funding could trigger volatility, suggesting the current phase is more of a buildup than a confirmed move.

XLM Price Analysis: Critical Breakout Not Here

XLM is stabilizing near $0.16 after an extended downtrend, holding above the $0.14 support and testing early signs of recovery.

Price action remains constrained below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $0.228, showing that bulls have not regained structural control. However, momentum is quietly improving.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has climbed toward the neutral 50 zone, reflecting a shift away from oversold conditions.

At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has started printing red histogram bars while still in positive territory, suggesting that bearish pressure is fading rather than accelerating.

Still, the broader trend tells a tougher story. The descending trendline continues to cap upside, reinforcing a market that is recovering but not yet reversing.

As long as XLM’s price holds above $0.14, downside risk remains contained. However, a failure here could reopen a deeper decline.

XLM technical price analysis
XLM/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

For now, the market sits in a transition phase. A break above 0.20 could trigger stronger upside, while rejection keeps consolidation in play.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju

Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.

With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.

He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.

In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.

At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.

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