XMR price is unlikely to recover soon | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
XMR’s price failed again at the $375-$380 resistance, triggering a pullback toward $340.
The BBP has flipped deeply negative, while MFI near 22 signals capital outflows.
Funding rates have turned positive, and liquidations remain low, indicating reduced leverage.
Monero (XMR) has failed again. After hitting a new all-time high a few months ago, the privacy coin’s price has declined significantly.
As a result, XMR’s price has been rejected several times. This is not the first rejection at this level, and it does not feel like it will be the last.
But what could be next for XMR’s price?
Liquidity Outflows Pressures Price
XMR is losing strength after another failed attempt to reclaim range highs. Price rejection near the upper boundary has triggered a pullback, and momentum indicators now lean bearish.
On the 4-hour chart, XMR recently tested the $375-$380 resistance zone but failed to sustain the breakout.
As a result, sellers stepped in aggressively, pushing prices back toward the $340 region, which now acts as a short-term pivot.
However, the broader structure still resembles a range-bound market, with clear support resting near $300-$305.
This makes the current move a potential rotation rather than a full breakdown, at least for now.
Meanwhile, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) indicator has flipped deeply negative. This shift confirms that sellers are currently in control.
The sustained red histogram also suggests that downside pressure has not yet faded.
At the same time, the Money Flow Index (MFI) has dropped sharply to around 22.29, signaling weakening capital inflows.
The lack of a strong buying response at current levels raises concerns. If bulls fail to defend the $330- $335 zone, price could extend losses toward the lower support range.
Market Aggression Declines
The derivatives data signals stabilizing sentiment as funding rates turn mildly positive and liquidations cool, reflecting reduced market aggression.
On-chain data shows the funding rate at 0.0111%, shifting from deeply negative levels near -0.30%. This suggests bearish pressure has eased.
Meanwhile, liquidations remain low, with $1,570 shorts and $2,860 longs wiped out recently. As a result, leverage is subdued.
In the meantime, XMR continues to trade under pressure despite a mild rebound, holding near $341 after failing to reclaim key Fibonacci resistance levels.
While XMR’s price has stabilized above recent lows, the broader structure remains bearish.
The daily chart shows a clear shift in structure after XMR peaked near $597 (0.618 Fib) and triggered a sell-off.
Subsequently, the price broke down toward the $276 base (0 Fib), establishing a strong demand zone. That level held firmly, preventing further downside.
However, the recovery that followed lacks conviction. Price continues to trade below the $399 level (0.236 Fib), which now acts as immediate resistance.
Each attempt to move higher has been met with selling pressure. As a result, XMR’s price keeps printing lower highs, reinforcing the broader downtrend.
At the same time, the descending trendline remains intact. Price recently approached this dynamic resistance but failed to break above it.
This rejection confirms that sellers are still active on rallies. Until this trendline is cleared, upside remains limited.
Momentum indicators further support this cautious outlook. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is flattening after a prolonged bearish phase, with histogram bars turning neutral.
This signals that bearish momentum is easing. However, there is no strong bullish crossover yet, meaning momentum has not fully shifted.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around the midline near 45-49. This reflects a lack of directional strength. Buyers are present but not aggressive.
Consequently, the market remains in a consolidation phase rather than a confirmed recovery.
Looking ahead, the structure remains fragile. If XMR’s price reclaims $399, momentum could build toward $475 (0.382 Fib).
Conversely, failure to break higher would likely keep price trapped, with a risk of a retest of the $276 support zone.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
