Home / Price Predictions / Monero Price Prediction 2025: XMR Faces Further Downturn

Monero Price Prediction 2025: XMR Faces Further Downturn

Published
Peter Henn
Published
By Peter Henn
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • The LocalMonero trading platform announced its closure on May 7.
  • XMR rallied in late 2024 before cooling off.
  • Our Monero price prediction says it could fall as low as $93 next year.

A peer-to-peer (P2P) trading platform specializing in privacy-focused cryptocurrency, Monero has ceased its operations immediately, adding to a recent trend of closures and crackdowns within the crypto privacy sphere.

LocalMonero declared  on May 7 that all new user registrations and advertisement placements for Monero (XMR) trades would be suspended, followed by a complete halt to trading activities for the privacy-centric digital asset on May 14.

The company attributed its decision to a blend of internal and external factors, though it refrained from divulging specific details. However, it did acknowledge the growing antagonism towards products and services emphasizing user privacy as a significant influence behind the move.

However, when the market fell in early September 2024, XMR was one of the few cryptocurrencies to rise. This, in turn, put it in a pretty strong position for the bull market of November and December, when it broke past $200 for the first time in two-and-a-half years.

By Jan. 9, 2025, Monero was worth about $195.25.

Let’s examine our Monero price predictions, made on Jan. 9, 2025. We will also examine the Monero price history and discuss what Monero is and does.

Monero Price Prediction

Let’s look at the XMR price predictions made by CCN on Jan. 9. The predictions will use the wave count method. We will then add and remove 20% from the final target to develop our minimum and maximum predictions.

Minimum XMR Price Prediction Average XMR Price Prediction Maximum XMR Price Prediction
2025 $93 $105 $127
2025 $132 $165 $198
2030 $32 $40 $48

The most likely wave count suggests that XMR started a W-X-Y correction in June 2022. If so, it is currently in the Y wave, which is the final one for the correction.

If waves W to Y have a 1:1.61 ratio, XMR can reach a high of $250 in October 2025

Then, we can predict a lengthy correction similar to the one after the May 2022 high. If that has the same duration as the W-X-Y structure, it will continue until 2027.

During these projected upward and downward movements, the wave count method gives XMR price predictions of $105 and $165 for the end of 2025 and 2026, respectively.

XMR/USDT Weekly Chart
XMR/USDT weekly chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

Finally, we use the daily rate of decrease for the past three years to arrive at our XMR price prediction for 2030.

The XMR Price has fallen 37% since November 2021. Projecting this decline until the end of 2030 gives a target of $40.

Monero Price Prediction 2025

The wave count method predicts that XMR’s price will range between $93 and $127 by the end of 2025.

Monero Price Prediction 2026

The wave count method predicts that XMR’s price will range between $132 and $198 by the end of 2026.

Monero Price Prediction 2030

Using the daily rate of decrease for the past three years, we arrive at an XMR price prediction range between $32 and $48 by the end of 2030.

Monero Price Analysis

Since June 2022, the $180 resistance level has repeatedly blocked Monero’s upward movement.

Even after breaking a descending trend line in June 2024, XMR couldn’t push past it.

However, in December, Monero finally surged past $180, hitting a yearly high of $231.96 before retracing to retest and hold $180 as support.

This breakout and retest suggest a bullish continuation, with the next target around $310, a 50% increase from current levels.

XMR/USDT Weekly Chart
XMR/USDT weekly chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

Supporting indicators like RSI and MACD remain bullish, reinforcing the optimistic outlook. Monero’s integration with the Keystone Hardware Wallet could further bolster this trend.

Short-Term XMR Price Prediction

The XMR price prediction for the next 24 hours is bullish as long as the price does not close below the $180 horizontal area.

Monero Relative Strength Index (RSI): Is XMR Overbought or Oversold?

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum indicator traders use to determine whether an asset is overbought or oversold. Movements above and below the 50 line also indicate if the trend is bullish or bearish.

XMR RSI
XMR RSI | Credit: Peter Henn/TradingView 

On Jan. 9, 2025, the Monero RSI was at 50, indicating neutral conditions.

Monero Average True Range (ATR): XMR Volatility

The Average True Range (ATR) measures market volatility by averaging the largest of three values: the current high minus the current low, the absolute value of the current high minus the previous close, and the absolute value of the current low minus the previous close over a period, typically 14 days. A rising ATR indicates increasing volatility, while a falling ATR indicates decreasing volatility. Since ATR values can be higher for higher-priced assets, normalize ATR by dividing it by the asset price to compare volatility across different price levels.

XMR ATR
XMR ATR | Credit: Peter Henn/TradingView 

On Jan. 9, 2025, Monero’s ATR was 12.78, suggesting relatively low volatility.

CCN Strength Index

The CCN Strength Index combines an array of advanced market signals to measure the strength of individual cryptocurrencies over the last 30 days.

Every day, it assigns a strength score, ranging from 0 to 100, to the top 500 assets by market capitalization on CoinMarketCap, focusing on both trend direction and the intensity of price movements.

  • 0 to 24: Assets exhibit significant weakness, showing signs of sustained downtrend behavior.
  • 25 to 35: The price tends to move within stable bounds with minimal volatility.
  • 36 to 49: Assets begin a stable uptrend but without strong surges.
  • 50 to 59: Consistent growth with moderate price advances, building momentum.
  • 60+: Sharp price movements and high demand indicate stronger volatility and trend shifts.

The index dynamically adapts to rapid changes. For example, an asset experiencing a 100% increase within a short timeframe would see a sharp jump in its score to reflect the intensity of the rise.

However, should that asset stabilize at this new price level, the score will gradually taper down and align with the dampened momentum as the movement normalizes. The same principle applies to rapid declines: a sudden drop will spike the score downward, but as volatility decreases, the score will slowly adjust back up.

XMR CCN Index
XMR CCN Index | Credit: CCN

On Jan. 9 2025, Monero scored 28.1 on the CCN Index, suggesting weak momentum.

Monero Price Performance Comparisons

Monero is a so-called Privacy Coin. Let’s compare it to some similar cryptocurrencies to see how it has performed over the last year.

Current Price One Year Ago Price Change
Monero $195.25 $148.63 +31.3%
Zcash $49 $21.43 +128%
Oasis $0.0761 $0.1261 -39.6%
Worldcoin $2.15 $1.86 -0.53%

Best Days and Months to Buy Monero

We looked at the Monero price history and found the times when the price was at its lowest across certain days, months, and even quarters in the year, indicating the best times to buy XMR.

Day of the Week Friday
Week 35
Month August
Quarter Third

Advantages and Disadvantages of Monero

CCN’s Senior Research Analyst, Toghrul Aliyev, investigated Monero in depth and found the following advantages and disadvantages.

Advantages of Monero

  • Ultimate Anonymity: Monero’s strong privacy features prompted the IRS to offer a $625,000  bounty for cracking privacy coins. Although Chainalysis and Integra FEC won this bounty, they did so by developing blockchain analysis tools rather than breaking Monero’s encryption. Additionally, despite claims from CipherTrace , tracking Monero transactions remains largely unproven.
  • Transparency and Security: Since Monero is open source , its code is available for anyone to review, audit, and contribute to. This transparency allows the community to identify and fix vulnerabilities quickly, enhancing overall security. Additionally, it fosters trust among users, as they can independently verify that the code functions as intended without hidden backdoors or malicious components.
  • Ethical Development: Monero developers show a high level of ethical responsibility. They make modest  funding requests  and choose to patch major bugs instead of exploiting them .
  • Accessible and Decentralized Mining: Monero’s RandomX algorithm supports mining with standard consumer-grade CPUs. Its ASIC resistance prevents the concentration of mining power among those who can afford specialized hardware.
  • Adaptive Block Size : Monero’s adaptive block size mechanism allows the block size to dynamically expand up to 300,000 bytes without penalty. This flexibility ensures the network can handle increased transaction volumes efficiently, maintaining low fees and preventing delays.
  • Cheap Transaction Fees : Monero has low transaction fees, with an average of around $0.05 over the past three years.
Monero Transaction Fees
Credit: BitInfoCharts

Disadvantages of Monero

  • Regulatory Issues: Major exchanges like Binance, Huobi , and Kraken have delisted Monero, and countries such as South Korea , Japan , Dubai , and Australia  have imposed restrictions. Amid these regulatory challenges, LocalMonero , one of the biggest platforms for trading Monero peer-to-peer, also shut down, further limiting accessibility.
  • Mining Pool Concentration : Monero has a significant concentration of mining power, with two pools, Nanopool and SupportXMR, controlling 73.67% of the network as of early July 2024. Although a single pool cannot control how 223  nodes inside behave, and coordinated collusion is unlikely, the risk remains.
  • Illicit Activity Concerns: Monero is increasingly favored by criminal organizations , particularly on darknet markets and for ransomware payments. For example, White House Market  and AlphaBay , prominent darknet markets, have adopted Monero to reduce transaction traceability. It has also become the preferred currency for money laundering and transactions involving child sexual abuse material (CSAM) vendors .
  • Heightened Scrutiny for Buyers: Due to Monero’s association with illicit activities, anyone who buys XMR on exchanges often faces heightened scrutiny. The first assumption tends to be involvement in criminal activity rather than legitimate investment or participation in privacy-focused transactions. It is logical that exchanges still allowing the purchase of XMR might report these buyers to authorities, assuming they may use these assets for criminal activities in the future.
  • Slow Transaction Processing: On average, Monero blocks are mined every 2 minutes. After a transaction is initiated, it takes around two minutes for it to be included in a block. However, the transaction requires 10 confirmations to be fully verified and spendable, which takes about 20 minutes in total.
  • Complex Wallet Management: Managing Monero wallets can be complex, especially for non-technical users. The need to understand different types of addresses (standard, integrated, subaddresses) and payment IDs can be confusing.

XMR Price History

Following that, let’s now take a look at some of the key dates in the Monero price history . While past performance should never be taken as an indicator of future results, knowing what the coin has done can help give us some very useful context when it comes to either making or interpreting a Monero price prediction.

Monero Price History
Monero price history for the last 12 months | Credit: CoinMarketCap 
Time period Monero price
Last week (Jan. 2 2025) $197.21
Last month (Dec. 9, 2024) $227.06
Three months ago (Oct. 9, 2024) $154.45
One year ago (Jan. 9, 2024) $148.63
Five years ago (Jan. 9, 2020) $59.79
Launch price (May 22, 2014) $1.5894
All-time high (May 7, 2021) $517.62
All-time low (Jan 14, 2015) $0.213

Monero Market Cap

The market capitalization, or market cap, is the sum of the total number of XMR in circulation multiplied by its price.

Monero Market Cap
Monero market cap for the last 12 months | Credit: CoinMarketCap 

On Jan. 9, 2025, Monero’s market cap was $3.6 billion, making it the 40th-largest crypto by that metric.

Monero Supply and Distribution

Supply and distribution Figures
Total supply 18,446,744
Circulating supply (as of Jan. 9, 2025) 18,446,744 (100% of total supply)

From the Whitepaper

In its technical documentation or whitepaper , Monero says, “Monero is a decentralized cryptocurrency, meaning it is secure digital cash operated by a network of users. Transactions are confirmed by distributed consensus and then immutably recorded on the blockchain. Third parties do not need to be trusted to keep your Monero safe.”

Monero (XMR) Explained

One of the biggest selling points of crypto is its private nature. The idea is that the blockchain would help users conduct their business privately.

However, there have been some concerns that people can track down who owns what address with a bit of detective work.

Monero  is designed to address these concerns. The blockchain, which was formed as a spin-off from the Bytecoin network in 2014, uses techniques that mean no one can tell where a transaction originated or was sent to.

While the system’s advocates argue that it is doing nothing wrong, Monero has been accused of facilitating money laundering and helping fund terrorist activity. 

The XMR coin supports the blockchain. Monero is based on the CryptoNote whitepaper, published by pseudonymous author Nicolas van Saberhagen in 2013. 

How Monero Works

Monero uses a Proof-of-Work consensus mechanism. This means people must solve increasingly complex mathematical equations to add blocks to the blockchain and earn rewards.

The system uses “one-time ring signatures” to ensure that transactions remain untraceable. Stealth addresses allow users to set up one-off wallet addresses, which, again, stop transaction tracing. 

With features like these, it is perhaps little surprise that the authorities have raised their concerns about XMR and that some of the largest centralized crypto exchanges, such as Coinbase, do not list it. 

Users can utilize XMR to pay for transactions on the platform and reward the system’s miners. XMR can also be bought, sold, and traded on some exchanges, although, as we have said, some exchanges do not offer it, citing legal concerns.

Is Monero a Good Investment?

Monero’s XMR crypto has been the subject of much skepticism. Concerns surrounding its facilitation of illegal activities have seen it removed from some major exchanges.

To some people, it might seem that the only reason someone might buy the coin is to take part in something that is not entirely within the law. This could have implications when considering the ongoing, often-warranted crackdown on crypto.

On the other hand, the coin performed comparatively well over a period when the market tumbled. As always, it is vital that you do your own research. 

Will Monero go up or down?

No one can really tell right now. While the price forecasts are bullish in the longer term, price predictions may be wrong. Remember, too, that prices can and do go down and up. 

Should I invest in Monero?

Before you decide whether or not to invest in Monero, you will have to do your own research, not only on XMR but also on similar coins and tokens, such as ZCash (ZEC) and DASH.

Ultimately, though, this is a decision you will have to make for yourself. Before you do so, it is vital that you never invest more money than you can afford to lose. 

Technical analysis by Valdrin Tahiri

FAQs 

How many Monero are there?

As of Jan. 9 2025, there were 18.4 million XMR in circulation, representing the total supply.

Can Monero reach $1,000?

It could do, but not at any point before the 2030s at least, according to our analysis. 

What is Monero used for?

Monero’s XMR coin is used to help transactions on the Monero blockchain. It is also given to the system’s crypto miners.

Disclaimer 

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability, and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

Peter Henn

Peter Henn has been a journalist since 2005. In that time, he has written for a variety of publishers including the Mail on Sunday and the Daily Express. He has previously covered the world of cryptocurrency for Currency.com and Capital.com, and has also written for ECigIntelligence.com and CBD-Intel.com. A graduate of the University of Liverpool, he is based in the United Kingdom. His hobbies include music, horse racing and performance art.
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