Here is what to expect from XMR this March | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Monero is showing signs of stability near $345 after its steep drop in February, but the broader recovery remains uncertain.
Price continues to face resistance near $375, and only a move above this zone could invalidate a decline in XMR.
XMR funding rates have turned slightly positive, suggesting traders are slowly positioning for upside.
Stability may finally be returning for Monero’s price (XMR). Still, the bullish case is far from confirmed.
At the time of writing, the XMR coin has spent the past several weeks consolidating between $276 and $380.
At the moment, the price trades around $344.93, slightly above the midpoint of that channel.
Meanwhile, technical indicators hint at improving conditions. Nevertheless, a notable breakout remains the key trigger before the psychological $400 can realistically come into play.
Here’s why that might be challenging to achieve.
Monero Sees Range-Bound Price Action
The 4-hour chart shows that XMR’s price is consolidating between strong support near $276.66 and resistance around $375.61. Since early March, volatility has cooled.
As a result, the market has shifted into a sideways structure while traders wait for a decisive breakout.
Currently, XMR trades at $344.93, slightly above the middle of this range. However, the price continues to struggle to break above a key horizontal resistance zone.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) recently rebounded from oversold conditions near 25. It now sits around 50, indicating neutral momentum. This move suggests capital inflows are gradually returning to the market.
Meanwhile, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains slightly negative. However, histogram bars are shrinking. This shift signals a weakening bearish setup.
Together, these indicators suggest the selling pressure that dominated February is slowly fading, though bulls have not yet fully regained control.
The broader structure shows a steep drop in early February, where XMR’s price plunged toward the $276.66 support zone.
Buyers quickly stepped in at that level. The accumulation caused a sharp rebound and formed a recovery structure.
However, the rebound lost momentum near $375.61. Since then, the XMR coin has entered a horizontal consolidation channel.
A confirmed breakout above $375-$380 would likely trigger a stronger bullish continuation.
Until then, the altcoin may continue to oscillate within the current range as traders wait for a clear directional catalyst.
Positive Funding Signals Confidence
On the derivatives side, sentiment around Monero (XMR) appears cautiously bullish.
The funding rate has turned slightly positive, currently hovering around 0.0073%, indicating that traders in the futures market are increasingly willing to pay a premium to maintain long positions.
Historically, sustained positive funding rates often signal rising bullish sentiment around the coin.
However, the current reading remains relatively modest, suggesting that market leverage is still under control rather than overheated.
A similar move is being projected on the daily timeframe. Monero’s price is attempting to stabilize after a sharp rejection from its January peak, with the chart now showing consolidation near $340.
Earlier in the cycle, the XMR coin surged, briefly reaching $802.41, before heavy selling pressure triggered a rapid correction.
Since then, the price has retraced through several key Fibonacci levels, slipping below the 0.382 level near $448.80 and approaching the 0.236 support around $365.26.
This zone is now acting as a critical pivot for the market.
Recently, the asset dipped below that level before rebounding slightly, suggesting buyers are attempting to defend the area.
However, the recovery remains weak, and the broader structure still reflects a corrective phase following the earlier parabolic rally.
Momentum indicators reinforce this cautious outlook.
The Directional Movement Index (DMI) shows a weakening trend strength as the positive +DMI and negative -DMI lines move closer together, indicating that bullish momentum is fading.
At the same time, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is slightly negative at -0.03, suggesting that capital inflows remain limited despite the recent bounce.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
