XMR corrected 40% from its peak after a multi-week, momentum-driven rally.
Short-term recovery is weak, with the price still trending below key resistance.
Derivatives and daily charts favor consolidation unless XMR reclaims $515.
Monero (XMR) has finally experienced a notable correction. This happened after the XMR price dropped about 40% from its all-time high as profit-taking swept across the crypto market.
The decline follows a powerful multi-week rally that sent the privacy coins to record levels.
Now, the pullback has revived a familiar debate. Is XMR entering a lasting expansion phase, or was the surge simply a momentum-driven spike?
Monero Recovery Under Pressure
On the 4-hour chart, XMR’s price remains in a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. Short-term indicators show slight buying pressure.
The Awesome Oscillator (AO), while still in negative territory, now displays green histogram bars, hinting at a potential short-term bullish shift.
Likewise, the Money Flow Index (MFI) also remains below the neutral line at 45.13. Although the indicator appears to be trending upward, this momentum is tentative.
If this remains the same, XMR’s price could face immediate resistance near $479.35 and the $534.87 zone.
XMR/ISD 4-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView
However, a sustained move above these levels would confirm any meaningful recovery. On the flip side, failure to hold support around $444.80 could resume the prevailing downtrend.
Other Charts Show Risks
The derivatives market reinforces this cautious picture. At the time of writing, XMR has seen more than $38,000 in short liquidations across major exchanges, indicating that brief upside moves are still forcing some bears out of position.
However, that pressure has not translated into aggressive follow-through. Open Interest (OI) remains relatively low, suggesting limited leverage and a lack of conviction among both bulls and bears.
In other words, traders are largely staying on the sidelines rather than positioning for a decisive breakout.
Meanwhile, the funding rate has dipped below the neutral level. This shift suggests bearish sentiment is gradually building, as traders lean slightly toward short exposure.
As a result, long positions now face higher carrying costs, which can discourage sustained upside attempts and reduce buying pressure over time.
Taken together, this structure points to muted near-term price action for XMR’s price.
Without a clear increase in OI or a flip back to positive funding, XMR’s price is likely to remain range-bound.
In the short run, the bias tilts toward continued consolidation or a slow grind lower, unless spot demand steps in to absorb selling and reestablish bullish momentum.
XMR Price Outlook: Bearish
On the daily timeframe, XMR’s price shows a sharp impulse move followed by a controlled pullback that now looks more corrective.
Price surged aggressively toward the $700 area before stalling just below the 0.786 Fibonacci level near $678, after which it rolled over into a falling wedge, a structure often associated with consolidation rather than distribution.
The current price, around $477, is sitting close to the 0.382 retracement at roughly $474, a level that has acted as interim support during the pullback.
However, the broader structure still holds above the 0.236 level near $364, which defines the higher-timeframe bullish floor.
Momentum has cooled meaningfully, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slipping into the mid-40s after briefly entering overbought territory during the spike.
At the same time, the Bull Bear Power (BBP) histogram has flipped deeply negative. This BBP position reflects the sharp contraction in volatility after the blow-off move.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
