On Thursday, March 5, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) answered definitively — by walking away.
In a proposed final judgment filed with the Southern District of New York, the SEC agreed to dismiss all remaining claims against Justin Sun, the Tron Foundation, and the BitTorrent Foundation.
While it is essentially flat, the TRX price is holding above the Supertrend at $0.28 inside an ascending parallel channel that has contained it since the Feb. 6 low.
Notably, a rising support trendline has held every dip. The green zone near $0.28 has acted as a reliable demand on multiple tests.
Meanwhile, resistance sits at $0.29.
Amid all of these, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is ticking higher. The line (0.00076) recently crossed above the signal (0.00059), turning the histogram bars green.
While Tron might remain in consolidation, a breakout above $0.29 targets the channel’s upper boundary near $0.31.
The Political Dimension: Justin Sun, Trump, and Why This Settlement Happened Now
The timing of the Tron settlement is not random.
It fits squarely within a broader recalibration of the SEC’s approach to crypto enforcement under the Trump administration and new Chairman Paul Atkins.
Following Trump’s 2024 re-election, Justin Sun made a purchase that raised significant eyebrows.
For context, he bought approximately $75 million worth of World Liberty Financial tokens (WLFI).
Also, the token is tied to a company partially owned by Trump and his family.
While the SEC has not commented on any connection between Sun’s WLFI position and the settlement, the sequence of events — a large investment in the President’s family-linked token, followed by a lawsuit pause, followed by the settlement- has not gone unnoticed in financial and legal circles.
However, this does not mean that was what influenced the final judgment.
Positive Sentiment Could Lead to Breakout
From an on-chain perspective, CCN observed that the Weighted Sentiment has turned positive as the TRX price approaches key resistance.
As shown below, the metric has spiked to 2.893 today — the highest positive reading since the Jan. 12 peak near $0.322.
During that period, the altcoin price topped, and TRX subsequently fell 16% over the following weeks.
The pattern has repeated consistently. Every significant positive sentiment spike on this chart — Dec. 24, Jan. 12, and now March 6 — coincided with or immediately preceded a price peak.
Negative sentiment troughs, by contrast, marked the Feb. 4 low near $0.27 before the recovery.
However, today’s sentiment spiked to 2.89, which coincided with TRX testing the $0.28 resistance.
This indicates that the crowd is bullish. But since the TRX price has not registered notable gains lately, sentiment could drive higher demand, possibly sending the altcoin price close to its all-time high.
TRX Price Analysis: The Path to the All-Time High
On the weekly chart, TRX’s current consolidation puts it in sharp perspective.
After a 72.88% rally from the 2024 breakout, the price is now compressing inside a descending triangle at the 0.618 Fibonacci level ($0.30) — directly where the 20-EMA ($0.292) sits.
The triangle is tightening. Lower highs and a flat base near $0.280 are converging fast.
A breakout above the falling trendline targets the annotated short- to mid-term target at $0.36416 (0.786 Fib) — a 27% move from the current price.
In addition, 20-EMA has acted as notable support throughout the 2024–2025 bull run.
Since the TRX price is testing it now, holding it on a weekly close is critical. In a highly bullish scenario, it could rally to its all-time high near $0.45.
However, bulls lose $0.28, and the triangle breaks down toward $0.25 (0.5 Fib); a correction could be next.
For now, that seems unlikely, but traders might need to watch out for Bitcoin (BTC). If Bitcoin’s price slides below $65,000, the TRX bullish price prediction could be invalidated.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
