Toncoin (TON) Price Pulls Back After 65% Surge — Key Pattern Hints Next Direction

Key Takeaways

• Toncoin (TON) broke down from a head-and-shoulders pattern.
• The price has increased over 65% since bouncing on March 11.
• Can TON sustain its increase, or are new lows more likely?
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Toncoin’s price fell nearly 70% after its all-time high in December 2024 but regained its footing with a strong bounce on March 11.

While the price rallied over 65% after the low, it has created a bearish short-term pattern, risking the loss of its previous gains.

Will TON break down in April, or can it resume its previous ascent? Let’s find out.

TON Price Bounces After Breakdown

Toncoin has traded inside a head-and-shoulders pattern since March 2024, reaching its all-time high of $8.28 in June.

As predicted in January, TON broke down from its head-and-shoulders pattern and fell over 50%, culminating in a low of $2.35.

However, TON has bounced over 65% since, reaching a high of $4.09 and confirming the $2.70 horizontal area as support.

Technical indicators give some hope for a bounce but do not confirm the bullish trend reversal.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) moved outside its oversold territory, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is making a bullish cross.

However, both indicators trade below their bullish thresholds at 50 and 0, respectively.

So, the weekly time frame does not confirm whether the TON price has started a bullish trend reversal or is in a relief rally. As it stands, the $2.70-$5 horizontal area can contain the future movement.

Can TON Sustain Its Rally?

The short-term six-hour chart also provides mixed readings. The bullish wave count shows a completed five-wave upward movement (green) since March 11.

This means the upward movement is impulsive, and the ensuing breakdown will be a corrective A-B-C structure.

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However, the TON price has also created a head-and-shoulders pattern, which has previously led to breakdowns, as seen in the long-term outlook.

The bearish divergences (orange) in the RSI and MACD support this possibility. So, the most likely short-term outlook is a breakdown from the pattern.

If one happens, the TON price could fall to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement support level at $3.01.

However, since the increase is impulsive, the TON price will likely resume its ascent afterward, possibly reaching the range high of $5.

Uncertain Trend Ahead

The TON price rallied after its March 11 bottom, increasing by over 65%. The rally prevented a breakdown from a long-term support level.

However, the TON price has created a short-term bearish pattern that can lead to a decline toward