Toncoin (TON) Holds Gains With Higher Low, Though Reversal May Not Be Imminent

Key Takeaways

• ABC correction is likely forming on the 1-hour chart.
• A short-term upside is expected before more downside.
• Key confluence at $3.71 for wave c rejection.
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Toncoin (TON) has shown notable price action in recent weeks, with corrective structures dominating the larger trend and short-term formations hinting at potential retracements or continuation patterns.

TON Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart shows Toncoin completing a five-wave corrective structure at a low of $2.42 on March 11. 

This is labeled as an ABCDE pattern, a part of a larger corrective phase (W-X-Y).

The price peaked above $8.20 in June 2024 before entering a steep correction. 

It broke down within a falling channel and found temporary support near $2.70 – the 0.786 Fib retracement of the prior bullish move.

The most recent movement bounced off the long-term support zone around $2.70-$2.88 (highlighted in green), with a possible end to wave (Y).

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The market has since formed a five-wave impulse to the upside, potentially signaling a corrective rally or a new bullish phase. 

This bounce faced resistance near $4.12 (major horizontal and Fib confluence), aligning with the 0.618 retracement of the previous major move down.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour timeframe shows a modest recovery from oversold territory but lacks strong bullish divergence, suggesting that this bounce may still be corrective unless confirmed by higher highs.

TON Price Prediction

On the 1-hour chart, the recent structure appears to be forming an ABC corrective pattern after a completed 5-wave move down. Waves A and B are already in place, and wave c potentially targets the $3.71 area (Fib 0.618).

The price currently trades around $3.03, forming a minor higher low in wave b of the ABC. 

This suggests a short-term move to the upside could develop before another leg down completes the broader correction.

The likely zone for this bounce is between $3.71 and $3.88, in line with the 0.618 retracement of the prior downtrend.

If the projected b-c corrective wave finishes near $3.71 and faces rejection, wave (C) of the larger ABC correction could push the price toward the 0.786 and 1.0 Fib extension levels of $2.66 and $2.37 respectively.

The  RSI remains neutral around the 50 level, giving room for a short-term move higher before any downside continuation.

In conclusion, although we saw a five-wave impulse since the March 11 low, the recent descending move has also shown impulsiveness. 

This is why we expect the recovery since April 7 to be corrective, leading to another retest of the $2.40 zone. 

Should the price action develop this way, TON could establish a double bottom—a firm baseline for a sustained bullish reversal.

Key Levels to Watch:

• Upside Targets: $3.39, $3.71
• Downside Targets: $2.88, $2.68, $2.37
• Support: $2.88, $2.68
• Resistance: $3.88, $4.12, $4.72