Toncoin (TON) Corrects 12% After Hitting Predicted Bullish Price Target

Key Takeaways

• Rejection from 0.5 Fib caps initial recovery.
• RSI diverges on higher and lower timeframes.
• Wave (a) is in progress; deeper retracement is likely.
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Toncoin (TON) recently completed a strong impulsive recovery from a long-lasting descending channel, reaching our previously outlined target of $4.12.

A rejection occurred, sending TON into a 12% sharp decline, and it is still moving to the downside.

This analysis uses multiple time frames to determine whether the recent decline is part of a healthy retracement or the start of a deeper pullback.

TON Price Analysis

The 4-hour chart of TON displays a classic five-wave impulsive advance that began after the bottom of wave (e) near $2.356 on March 11.

This surge ended around $4.12, slightly above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level of the prior uptrend to the all-time high.

The rally broke through the descending channel, confirming a bullish breakout, but the rejection at $4.12 has triggered a swift reversal.

This suggests that wave (v) of the recent impulse has been completed, making way for an ABC corrective phase.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) also signaled a bearish divergence, failing to make a new high while the price continued higher—further supporting a likely retracement scenario.

It is now getting close to the oversold zone, but further downside room remains.

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We could see a minor corrective bounce, but since TON likely ended its five-wave impulse, it is now entering a corrective stage.

Based on the depth of this pullback, we will evaluate future targets and the possibility of a new bull phase starting.

TON Price Prediction

Zooming into the 1-hour chart, we can observe the unfolding of an ABC correction from the $4.12 high.

Wave (a) appears completed or nearly completed, with a potential to proceed to the $3.50 area at the 0.382 Fib of the last prior uptrend.

RSI formed a slight bullish divergence, showing recovery while the price made new lows—a potential signal for a short-term wave (b) relief bounce.

The rebound is expected to target the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels around $3.80

This is expected as a corrective wave, followed by a deeper wave (c) move.

If this corrective structure plays out as anticipated, the next leg lower could bring TON to test $3.28 (0.5) or $3.07 (0.618), consistent with higher timeframe retracement zones.

The corrective structure will remain valid if the price does not break back above $4.18.

If that happens, the entire corrective count would be invalidated, and the previous uptrend could resume.

The market respects Fibonacci levels cleanly, and the structure favors a classic three-wave correction.

Key Levels to Watch

• Immediate Resistance: $3.91 (0.382 retracement of drop).
• Bullish Invalidator: $4.12 (local top and wave (v) high).
• Immediate Support: $3.60 (current wave (a) low).
• Key Support: $3.28 (0.5 Fibonacci retracement).
• Critical Support: $3.07 (0.618 Fibonacci level).
• Bearish Target: $2.68 (0.786 retracement of entire impulse).