Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) tried to break free from its long-term trading range last week, but the move quickly fizzled out, pushing the price back into consolidation.
The failed breakout sparked a sharp reversal, and SOL now risks forming a bearish engulfing candlestick.
If that pattern confirms, it could set the stage for another steep drop and a potential breakdown from its ascending wedge.
Since the start of 2024, Solana has been stuck in a broad trading range between $125 and $210, and despite flashes of strength, the token has struggled to escape it.
After briefly breaking above the range to a new all-time high in January, SOL quickly slipped back inside and continued its decline, even falling below a descending resistance trend line.
That breakdown triggered a rebound, with the price reclaiming the range and pushing higher. But momentum stalled at the $210 ceiling.
Rather than establishing a new uptrend, SOL failed to clear resistance and is now showing signs of exhaustion.
The current candlestick structure points toward the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern—a move that, if confirmed, would signal the start of a deeper downtrend and a possible retest of the range lows.

Momentum indicators are neutral but could turn bearish soon.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) risks falling below 50 while the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is also losing steam.
So, the weekly time frame Solana price analysis leans bearish, and warns the price could go down further if it confirms the bearish candlestick.
The daily analysis confirms that the SOL price has started a bearish trend and will continue to fall throughout August and September.
SOL has completed a five-wave increase (green) inside an ascending wedge, which is considered a bearish pattern.
The wave count and price action point to more downside once the SOL price breaks down from the wedge.

If the bearish Solana prediction transpires, the price will decline in an A-B-C structure toward the 0.5-0.618 Fibonacci retracement support levels at $138-$152 before beginning another upward movement.
Solana was at a make-or-break level last week, and bears won the battle.
After a failed attempt at breaking out from its range, SOL risks a breakdown from its ascending wedge pattern.
If SOL confirms its bearish trend, it could decline another 20% to $138-$152.