Can Solana Finally Clear $200? | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) price did not rally despite many positive news developments.
The SOL price trades inside an ascending parallel channel.
Can Solana mount a rally to end the year, or will it break down?
The Solana price has been on a downtrend since September. Although it saw a brief rebound last week, the recovery has yet to develop into a meaningful rally.
Adding to the optimism, the Solana team announced that Western Union will build exclusively on its blockchain — following in the footsteps of Visa, Stripe, and PayPal, which have also integrated Solana’s network.
Solana’s upward movement ended with the all-time high of $295 in January 2025, after which the price of SOL fell.
Solana is in wave C of an A-B-C correction if the count is accurate.
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Wave B is contained inside an ascending parallel channel, indicating that the rally is corrective.
A breakdown from the channel will confirm that the bounce is over, and wave C will take the price to new lows.
Initially, the primary target for a temporary bottom will be at $128, but the price of Solana could decline to $59-$69 if the correction unfolds as expected and wave C has 1.61 times the length of wave A.
Momentum indicators suggest SOL will break down and fall to new lows. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is falling below 50 (black circle), and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) has made a bearish cross.
So, the Solana prediction is bearish, going against the positive news and indicating that a breakdown that takes the price to new lows is likely.
Will Solana Break Down?
The daily chart is very similar to the weekly one. It shows that Solana’s bounce since April is contained within an ascending parallel channel.
Today, the Solana price trades in the channel’s lower portion, making an eventual breakdown more likely.
In addition, the RSI is below 50, while the MACD is negative. Although the indicators are both increasing, their position below their bullish thresholds makes a breakdown more likely.
Solana has completed a W-X-Y structure (red) during this bounce, another signal that points to an eventual breakdown.
If one happens, the first minor level of support will be at $130. However, since this projected decline will take the price of Solana below its long-term channel, it will mean that the upward movement is likely over, and new lows are likely to follow.
Solana’s Bearish Prediction
In conclusion, Solana’s analysis points to a likely breakdown despite the project’s bullish news.
The price remains constrained within an ascending parallel channel, and momentum indicators are turning bearish across daily and weekly timeframes.
Unless SOL can reclaim its channel and confirm strength above $200, the odds favor a deeper correction, potentially reaching as low as $130 or even $60.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
