Solana’s (SOL) Price Could Sink to $125 If This 200-Day Pattern Collapses

Solana has been moving higher for months, but the latest price action is starting to show cracks.

After failing to push past the $250 resistance level, Solana’s price is currently testing critical support inside its long-standing ascending channel.

With bearish signals flashing on key technical indicators, the coming weeks could determine whether Solana holds its ground or breaks down into a deeper correction.

Solana Price Risks Breakdown

The weekly time frame shows that the price of Solana has increased within an ascending parallel channel since bouncing in April.

Even though the upward movement nearly led to a breakout and a new all-time high, the fact that it is contained inside a channel suggests it is corrective.

The price of Solana (SOL) fell after being rejected at the $250 resistance area (red icon).

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Today, Solana’s price risks breaking down from the ascending parallel channel, which will confirm that the bounce was corrective.

If that happens, the SOL price will crash to new lows, declining below the April bottom of $95.

Solana is currently in the channel’s lower portion, close to its support trend line, so the price could close below it and confirm the bearish trend.

Supporting the bearish price action, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) give bearish signals.

The RSI is below 50 (black circle) and the MACD has made a bearish cross (black circles).

If the Solana price breaks down, it could initially fall to the closest support at $125, but eventually would break down to new lows.

Why Solana is Going Down

Like the price action, the wave count suggests the Solana trend is bearish.

According to the count, the SOL price is completing wave C in an A-B-C correction (red), which started with the all-time high in December 2024.

Solana’s correction comes after the price completed a two-year-long five-wave upward movement. Therefore, a similarly long correction is likely. 

While not yet valid, a breakdown from the ascending parallel channel will confirm that the downward movement will continue to new lows.

Giving wave C 1.61 times the length of wave C leads to a low of $59, just below the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement support level.

Since this is a long-term Solana prediction, it could take a while until the price reaches it, initially bouncing at the $125 area after the breakdown.

New Lows Incoming

Overall, the charts suggest Solana is at a make-or-break level.

If the channel support fails, SOL could dip to $125 before heading toward even lower long-term targets.

While short-term bounces remain possible, the broader trend points toward caution as Solana risks extending its corrective phase.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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