Polkadot slips back into a downtrend | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
DOT lost the $2.00 level, which has flipped into strong resistance.
The $1.84 to the $1.85 zone is critical; losing it opens fast downside risk.
A reversal likely requires holding $2 ahead of the March 2026 issuance cut.
Polkadot (DOT) is back on the edge. The early-month breakout narrative is fading fast.
At press time, DOT now trades near $1.93 after losing the $2 psychological floor. As a result, bulls are no longer in control as bears now have the upper hand.
Here is what led to that and how it could affect Polkadot’s price bullish prediction.
Polkadot Continues to Drop
First, the chart is breaking down. DOT fell below $2 on Jan. 19, and that level has now flipped into resistance. Next, momentum has turned.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram is negative, which signals sellers are pressing harder.
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Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 39.69, rising from the oversold point.
However, it shows weak demand and plenty of room for another leg down. Therefore, $1.84 becomes the must-hold level. Lose it, and the downside opens quickly.
Looking closely, Polkadot’s price is attempting to stabilize near $1.85 after sliding through a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
However, momentum remains fragile as the price still trades below the $1.94 resistance zone. The structure shows lower highs pressing against a falling trendline despite a minor bounce from $1.79 support.
As a result, DOT needs to reclaim the $1.94 area to shift sentiment and open room toward $2.21; otherwise, the risk of continued consolidation or another downside test remains elevated.
Notably, it is yet to break above the descending supertrend around $2.19 and is unable to reclaim the $2.09 resistance.
The broader structure continues to reflect a downtrend, with lower highs intact and momentum indicators staying soft despite a modest daily bounce.
As long as DOT holds above the $1.70 support zone, downside risk appears contained.
However, a stronger recovery likely requires a move back above $2.10 to signal a shift in trend and attract sustained buying interest.
Still, the bull case is not dead. It is just delayed.
The next big inflection point is March 14, 2026. Polkadot is expected to implement its first issuance cut and hard-cap shift, reducing new supply materially.
If DOT’s price can hold above $2 through this liquidity drought, that supply shock could reset sentiment. Then the market can start talking about $3.13 again.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
