Polkadot price stabilizes after major sell-off | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
DOT is still structurally weak despite rebounding, because momentum remains muted.
RSI is stuck below 50, and MFI is oversold, indicating that buyers have not returned.
The MACD and AO are improving, but DOT likely needs a clean break above $1.91
Polkadot (DOT) enters the new year on shaky ground after shedding roughly 73% of its value over the past year.
The extended sell-off accelerated in October 2025, when DOT dropped to a fresh all-time low near the $1.41 region, effectively marking the trough of its latest capitulation phase.
Since then, DOT’s price has shown modest stabilization. At the time of writing, the asset was trading at $1.78, representing a 26.48% rebound from the October bottom.
Even so, this rebound mainly reflects easing sell pressure rather than a confirmed trend reversal.
Polkadot’s price remains structurally weak and far below previous cycle levels, keeping the broader outlook cautious.
Will DOT see a sustained trend reversal? Let’s check the charts.
Polkadot Momentum Shows Subtle Recovery
On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) paints a restrained picture.
RSI is hovering just below the neutral 50 level, signaling muted bullish momentum and a market still short on conviction.
While the indicator has exited oversold territory, its inability to reclaim the midpoint shows that recent upside attempts remain corrective rather than driven by strong demand.
The Money Flow Index (MFI) reinforces this defensive tone. With MFI at 29.14, the indicator is firmly in oversold territory, indicating persistent capital outflows and limited accumulation.
Although such readings can precede short-term relief rallies, history suggests they only hold if buyers step in with volume.
DOT’s price action mirrors this indecision. The asset continues to trade below former support levels that have now flipped into resistance, keeping downside risks in play.
Immediate resistance remains in the $1.78 to $1.80 range, an area tied to earlier breakdowns.
Failure to reclaim this zone caps upside momentum and favors extended consolidation near current levels.
DOT Price Prediction: Early Accumulation Phase
On the daily chart, DOT’s price is beginning to flash early recovery signals.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bullish, printing a series of green histogram bars.
More importantly, the 12-day EMA has crossed above the 26-day EMA, a shift that often indicates fading downside momentum and the potential for a trend reversal.
Likewise, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) has printed consistent green histogram bars, though it remains below the zero line.
This setup suggests that bearish momentum is weakening rather than fully reversing, a pattern commonly observed in the early stages of recovery following prolonged selloffs.
Historically, confirmation only follows once the AO moves into positive territory.
Fibonacci retracement levels add further structure to Polkadot’s price outlook. At $1.78, the asset sits 26.48% above its October all-time low.
The price remains above the zero Fib level at $1.66, indicating that short-term support is intact.
A sustained breakout above the $1.91 resistance zone could open the door for a move toward $2.42, signaling the start of a broader recovery.
On the other hand, failure to clear the resistance would likely expose DOT to renewed downside pressure, with a potential retest of the $1.66 support zone.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
