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Bitcoin (BTC) Price Collapses Below $88K Following Drop Below Key EMA: Rebound Remains Unlikely

Published 26 January 2026
Victor Olanrewaju
Authors
Key Takeaways
  • Bitcoin fell below $88,000 as liquidations and ETF outflows drained buying support.
  • A stronger yen and hawkish central banks are tightening global risk appetite.
  • Unless BTC reclaims $92,000, downside risk toward $85,000 remains elevated.

Bitcoin (BTC) just took another hit, sliding below $88,000.

Yes, the daily timeframe is flashing a death cross, which occurs when the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day moving average.

However, that signal usually arrives late. The bigger force is the macro squeeze that is draining risk appetite at the worst possible time.

As a result, it is likely that Bitcoin’s price will struggle to break higher anytime soon.

Bitcoin Price Crashes Again

BTC price broke under $88,000 and slid to the mid-$86,000s during the latest liquidation wave.

That drop mattered because it forced leveraged longs to unwind fast. Liquidations did the rest, as Coinglass data shows that over $670 million in leveraged positions were wiped out.

Yes, the daily timeframe is flashing a death cross, which occurs when the 50-day moving average dips below the 200-day moving average. However, that signal usually arrives late.

Looking closely, Bitcoin’s price rebounded modestly after defending the $87,000 area, but the broader structure remains fragile.

As seen below, the flagship cryptocurrency is still capped below the $96,000 resistance zone, which has repeatedly rejected upside attempts since December.

Each rally into that region has drawn sellers back into the market, reinforcing it as a key supply area.

That said, downside pressure is slowing near the $85,000 to the $86,000 support band. Buyers have stepped in there multiple times, and volume has stabilized rather than expanded on recent pullbacks.

This suggests selling intensity is easing, even though bulls have yet to regain control.

Bitcoin price BTC technical analysis
BTC/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView

As long as Bitcoin remains below the $92,000 zone, the market will remain in a vulnerable, range-bound phase.

However, a sustained hold above that area would be needed to invalidate the bearish signal and reopen upside momentum.

The bigger force is the macro squeeze that is draining risk appetite at the worst possible time.

At the same time, ETF flows stopped acting like a backstop. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs just printed one of their weakest weeks in nearly a year, with roughly $1.33B in net outflows. When that bid disappears, price has to find its own floor.

Should inflows fail to rise, the next target for the BTC price could be a drop below $85,000.

The Yen Had a Role to Play

Besides that, the macro developments seem to have an impact on BTC’s current path.

Notably, the Japanese Yen (JPY) ripped higher after reports of U.S. “rate checks,” which markets often treat as a prelude to intervention.

A stronger yen punishes the carry trade. It raises funding stress. It forces deleveraging.

Also, when traders scramble to cover yen exposure, they often sell the most liquid risk assets first.

In this case, Bitcoin fits that role.

Furthermore, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is also not easing the pressure. It held policy at 0.75%, but it kept a hawkish tone as yields jumped and political risk rose ahead of Japan’s February election.

Japen Yen grows against the US dollar
JPY/USD 5-Day Chart | Credit: TradingView

Meanwhile, capital is choosing the old shelter. Gold just pushed above $5,000 for the first time, which tells you fear is not theoretical right now.

If this trend continues, Bitcoin’s price will likely struggle to resist another drop.

However, crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe opined that Bitcoin’s price might soon recover from the recent dip.

“Small liquidity sweep beneath the lows, taking all the long liquidity and strong bounce upwards. If commodities are going to stall, I’ll be seeing $BTC above $90K during the coming week,” He stated.

Rate Cut Unlikely This Month

Elsewhere, the markets have largely settled the January Federal Reserve question.

Pricing now shows an overwhelming expectation that policymakers will leave rates unchanged, with the probability of no move climbing above 99%, according to Polymarket data.

Notably, expectations for a cut or a hike have steadily collapsed and are now effectively priced out.

This shift reflects growing confidence that the Fed wants more time to assess inflation and labor data before adjusting policy.

Recent economic releases have not been weak enough to force an early cut, while financial conditions have already eased, reducing urgency.

Fed rate cut Polymarket
Fed January Decision | Credit: Polymarket

Further, a January “no change” looks basically priced in.

So, Bitcoin’s move will likely hinge on Powell’s tone rather than the rate headline.

A steady or dovish hold can push yields and the dollar down, lift risk appetite, and let BTC rebound into nearby resistance around the $92,00 area,

However, a hawkish token can do the opposite, firming yields and the dollar and pressuring BTC back toward the $80,000 support zone shown on your chart.

But, like van de Poppe, analyst Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin’s price could rally toward $93,000 soon.

“BTC now has 2 CME gaps to the upside. The first one is at $89,350 and the other one is at $93,000. Since October 2025, 100% of Bitcoin CME gaps have been filled within 2 weeks, so keep an eye,” Pillows said.

So What’s Next for BTC Price?

The near-term battle is about stabilization. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim broken key resistance levels and ETF outflows persist, the chart will begin to pull the price toward the next central demand zone

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin’s price is trading heavily near the $88,000 area as it slips below the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $ 88,800.

Furthermore, the cryptocurrency has formed a rounded distribution structure, which is bearish.

At the same time, buying volume remains weak, with the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) stuck in negative territory and holder sentiment deeply underwater.

Bitcoin BTC technical analysis
BTC/USD 4-Hour Chart | Credit: TradingView

This setup leaves BTC vulnerable to another test of the $85,994 region if buyers fail to quickly reclaim $90,000.

On the contrary, a recovery above $91,967 would invalidate the bearish structure. If that were to happen, BTC might jump to $95,383.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju

Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.

With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.

He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.

In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.

At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.

He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.

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