ENA is down 80% YoY and just printed a fresh all-time low near $0.16.
Ethena’s TVL nearly halved, signaling capital exiting the protocol.
A reclaim of $0.19 would be the first sign that sellers are losing control.
Ethena (ENA) has slipped into a clear capitulation phase. At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price is down roughly 80% over the past year.
Following the move, it printed a fresh all-time low of $0.16 earlier today. This development occurred while the trend remained trapped in a prolonged descending channel.
As a result, what began as a market-wide pullback has turned into a structural breakdown, with buyers remaining scarce and confidence eroding further.
So, what’s next for Ethena’s price
Ethena Breaks Down
On the 4-hour chart, momentum stays heavy. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits near 35.10, keeping ENA close to oversold territory while still below the 50 midline.
That matters because it signals seller control, not a balanced market.
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Moreover, each brief bounce fades quickly, so any upside so far looks corrective rather than a bullish reversal.
At the same time, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) confirms the bearish pressure. As shown below, the AO is printing consecutive red bars below the zero line around -0.010, which signals that downside momentum is active and still accelerating.
In other words, sellers are not just present. They have the upper hand over buyers.
This zone is critical because it is one of the last nearby areas where buyers have previously stepped in.
However, repeated tests weaken support. By the look of things, it does not seem like Ethena’s price will breach the overhead resistance to overturn this correction.
Therefore, if ENA’s price falls below $0.15 and fails to reclaim it quickly, the token could slide toward $0.14 or lower.
TVL Tells a Darker Story
Fundamentals are adding real weight here. Ethena’s Total Value Locked (TVL) has nearly halved from its October peak, sliding from about $14.9 billion to $7.37 billion.
This signals that capital is leaving the protocol and that exit changes how the token trades.
First, lower TVL usually means weaker demand for the core product. Ethena’s ecosystem relies on users minting, holding, and deploying its stablecoin and yield strategies.
When TVL falls, it means fewer users are looping capital through the protocol. As a result, activity cools, and the “reason to own ENA” becomes less urgent.
It also limits the upside during bounces. Therefore, if Ethena’s TVL continues to fall, any rally tends to look like a technical bounce within a larger downtrend.
Buyers hesitate because they do not see fresh inflows. Sellers feel safer selling into strength because the fundamental backdrop has not improved.
Until that happens, the market will likely treat any Ethena price rally as temporary relief.
In that case, the altcoin’s price can keep grinding lower because the protocol is losing the one thing that most supports DeFi valuations.
ENA Price Forecast: Still Trapped
On the daily chart, the bearish structure remains intact. ENA continues to print lower lows within the descending channel, while flow and momentum indicators remain negative.
Fibonacci levels show ENA trading near $0.17, hovering close to the 0 Fib level, which could act as a pressure point.
If the price falls below that level, the downtrend could accelerate into new lows, as shown in the chart below, with a possible decline to $0.15.
However, if ENA can reclaim higher resistance with strength, especially a push back above the $0.19 region first, it would be an early sign that sellers are losing control.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
