Home / Analysis / Crypto / Technical Analysis / Bitcoin (BTC) Miners Shift To Accumulation Mode, But It May Not Be Enough To Sustain A Rally Above $75K
Bitcoin climbs above $63,000 after a sharp rebound from June lows. Can BTC break the $67K resistance as ETF flows and macro sentiment improve? | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s Miners’ Position Index has turned negative, signaling that miners are reducing exchange transfers and preferring to hold rather than sell at current price levels.
BTC must clear the 0.236 Fibonacci resistance at $75,304 to confirm bullish momentum.
Bitcoin has held above $70,000 since the beginning of April, easing selling pressure from one of its most significant holder cohorts — the miners.
An assessment of on-chain miner activity suggests the group has quietly shifted back toward accumulation.
However, whether miner accumulation alone will be sufficient to sustain a rally above $75,000 remains uncertain, as bearish pressure continues to linger among other key market participants.
Bitcoin Miners Dial Back Selling
In a new report, a pseudonymous CryptoQuant analyst, Arab Chain, assessed BTC’s Miners’ Position Index (MPI) and found it currently signals a dip in sell-side pressure among miners on the Bitcoin network.
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With a negative reading as of this writing, Arab Chain wrote:
“The index recorded a reading of approximately -0.83, a negative value reflecting a decrease in miners’ transfers to exchanges. This suggests a reduced appetite for selling and a preference for holding Bitcoin rather than selling it into the market.”
Bitcoin Miners’ Position Index | Credit: CryptoQuant
The MPI measures the ratio of miner outflows to their one-year moving average.
Historically, readings above 2 suggest increased selloffs among miners and put downward price pressure on BTC.
With BTC trading near $74,000 at the time of the report, Arab Chain argued that the negative MPI “reinforces the view that the market is not currently experiencing significant selling pressure from miners,” pointing instead to “a more stable environment where miners appear to prefer waiting rather than selling at current levels.”
Spot Market Sentiment Quietly Improving
An assessment of BTC’s daily chart movement confirms the improving spot market sentiment as the coin continues to hold above $70,000.
At press time, BTC is significantly above its 20-day exponential moving average, which provides dynamic support at $71,000.
This indicator measures the aggregate disposition of BTC holders.
When it falls below the zero line, it reflects poor sentiment and shows a market increasingly prone to panic selling.
On the other hand, when it rises and crosses above zero — as it has since April 6 — it signals strong demand, improving the likelihood of a sustained price surge.
Derivatives Traders Tell a Different Story
Interestingly, sentiment in the coin’s derivatives market remains notably cautious.
During today’s intraday trading session, demand for put options has outpaced demand for calls.
According to Deribit’s options open interest data, puts currently hold 1,821 contracts, against roughly 1,578 for calls.
When puts dominate like this, it means that traders are paying a premium to protect existing positions.
This skew toward puts indicates that a large segment of the market is hedging against further downside rather than positioning for a breakout.
It tells us that the coin’s derivatives traders are not yet convinced that BTC’s current push toward $75,000 will hold.
Furthermore, according to Coinglass data, BTC’s weighted funding rate closed on Tuesday at a year-to-date low of -0.0117%.
Still negative at press time, it stands at -0.0075%, confirming that futures market participants are mostly positioned short and unwilling to pay a premium to hold long exposure.
The funding rate is the periodic payment exchanged between long and short futures contract holders based on the difference between an asset’s spot price and futures price.
When an asset’s funding rate is positive, it means that long position holders are paying short, indicating a market bias toward bullish sentiment.
On the other hand, when it is negative like this, it reflects a bearish market where futures traders are predominantly betting on a further price decline rather than a sustained recovery.
What To Expect?
BTC’s 6% gain over the past seven days has pushed it above the $72,766 resistance.
With miner distribution falling and spot market sentiment improving, the coin could hold strongly above this new support floor in the meantime.
In this scenario, it could push toward the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $75,304, a level that has capped recent rally attempts.
A clean break above that zone would open the path toward $79,283.
However, if derivatives-led bearish pressure intensifies and spot demand falters, BTC risks losing the $72,766 support it has just reclaimed.
A failure to hold that level could cause a dip toward the 20-day EMA at $71,000.
BTC/USD Daily Chart | Credit: TradingView
If BTC manages a daily close below this point, it could plunge further to $65,071.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Abiodun Oladokun is a Research Analyst at CCN, where he covers cryptocurrency markets with a focus on on-chain analysis, technical assessments, and emerging trends across decentralized finance (DeFi), real-world assets (RWA), artificial intelligence (AI), decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN), Layer 2s, and meme coins.
Prior to CCN, he served as a Senior On-Chain Analyst at BeInCrypto, producing market reports spanning diverse crypto sectors.
Before that, he conducted technical analysis and market assessments of various altcoins at AMBCrypto, where he also contributed long-form quarterly research papers on DeFi, NFTs, DAOs, and scaling architectures, leveraging on-chain platforms including Messari, Santiment, DefiLlama, and Dune Analytics.
He began his crypto career as a research analyst at SixthSense DAO, developing blockchain forensic tools to trace the history of stolen assets.
Abiodun is a lawyer called to the Nigerian Bar and the founder of Ilé Ijó, a Lagos-based electronic dance music collective.
