Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle: Will History Repeat Itself This Time?

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin (BTC) has been approaching four years since its all-time high.
The two cycles before lasted roughly four years, measuring from the previous high.
Will the same happen this time, leading to a cycle peak in November 2025?

The Bitcoin price has fallen since its $124,474 all-time high on Aug. 14, and trades 9% below its high today.

Since the previous Bitcoin cycle ended in November 2021, proponents of the 4-year cycle believe that the top is near, even though on-chain indicator signals suggest this is not the case.

To gain clarity, let’s review a few key charts and compare Bitcoin’s current performance with past cycles to see if this one will end in four years.

Bitcoin’s Cycle Comparison

Even with unusual bouts of volatility and extended consolidation, Bitcoin’s trajectory since the last low remains strikingly similar to earlier cycles.

If history repeats, BTC will see another push higher in the next few months before reaching its cycle top.

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Comparing to the 2021 Cycle

The price action and momentum indicator readings are similar to the Bitcoin cycle that ended in 2021.

There are two main reasons for this.

Firstly, the BTC price created a double top pattern when the second high was higher than the first one, with a correction lasting several months in between.

Secondly, the RSI and MACD generated bearish divergences near the tops, confirming the weakness during the second high.

BTC Long-Term — BTC/USDT 2-Week Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView

Shortly after the high, an RSI cross below 50 and a bearish cross in the MACD occurred, confirming that the trend is bearish.

The divergences are present in the current movement, but the indicators have yet to cross below their bearish thresholds.

Since they are declining, it could be several months until they do, confirming the cycle top.

Compared to the 2017 Cycle

The cycle that ended in 2017 is extremely dissimilar because of its rate of increase and lack of weakness near the top.

At the time, the price of Bitcoin had increased parabolically for nearly a year before the cycle top.

Additionally, the three monthly candlesticks leading up to the top were bullish.

Another difference is the monthly RSI, which hit 90 during the high and had no bearish divergence.

The RSI is at 71 and has already generated a bearish divergence.

As a result, the two cycles are so dissimilar that it does not seem likely the current one will follow the 2017 one.

To do so, Bitcoin would have to go on a parabolic run well above $200,000, bringing its RSI near its all-time high.

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle

Bitcoin’s current cycle is more similar to the one that ended in 2021 than the one that ended in 2017.

The resemblance comes from its steadier pace of growth, lack of parabolic surges, and familiar signs of weakening momentum near the top.

If history is any guide, Bitcoin’s cycle peak will likely arrive in October or November, only incrementally higher than today’s price levels.

Alternatively, Bitcoin could do away with the four-year cycles altogether and continue increasing well into 2026 and 2027.

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Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

About the Author

Valdrin Tahiri

Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.

He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.

Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.

He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) 4-Year Cycle Explained — Why 2025 Could Be BTC’s Next Major Top

Bitcoin’s Cycle Comparison

Comparing to the 2021 Cycle

Compared to the 2017 Cycle

Bitcoin’s 4-Year Cycle

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