Here's Why SOL Could Break Down | Credit: Derek Fenech
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Key Takeaways
Solana (SOL) has traded inside an ascending wedge since May.
The SOL price is at peak validation of a bearish wave count.
Can Solana invalidate the count and surge to new highs?
Solana (SOL) has been climbing inside an ascending wedge since May, and the price action is reaching a key test.
Despite its newfound strength, which has spilled over into its ecosystem, Solana must decide whether to push higher or face rejection.
The next move could decide whether momentum shifts bullish or a deeper pullback takes shape.
Solana Price Analysis
The daily time frame Solana analysis gives several conflicting signs.
Starting with the bearish ones, the SOL price trades at the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level at $219.
The level also coincides with a diagonal resistance from an ascending wedge, which has existed since May.
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Momentum indicators align with the bullish scenario. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, and the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) is positive.
Since there are signs that point to a bullish and a bearish scenario, we will analyze two valid wave counts, one bullish and the other bearish.
Bullish Solana Count
The bullish Solana count shows a series of 1-2/1-2/1-2 wave formations in green, black, and red, respectively.
If the count is accurate, the price of Solana is on the precipice of a massive breakout that will take it to a new all-time high.
The main issue with this count is that the SOL price has not broken out yet.
It is only possible to draw so many 1-2/1-2/1-2 formations until a decisive breakout is needed to confirm them.
Bearish Solana Count
The bearish Solana count suggests the price has completed a leading diagonal for wave one, noticeable by the five-wave increase (green) and the shape of a wedge.
An exciting detail about this count is that every bullish wave is 0.618 times the length of the previous one.
This is a very strong signal that the diagonal is the correct formation, making it the primary count rater rather than the serioes of bullish 1-2/1-2 wave formations.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Valdrin Tahiri is a cryptocurrency analyst and reporter at CCN, specializing in technical analysis with a focus on Elliott Wave theory, on-chain metrics, and fundamental research. He brings over seven years of experience in the crypto space as both a trader and writer.
He discovered cryptocurrencies in 2017 while earning his MSc in Financial Markets at the Barcelona School of Economics, which sparked a deep interest in blockchain and market dynamics. Since then, he’s contributed to top crypto outlets like BeInCrypto and CoinGape.
Valdrin also served as Community Manager of BeInCrypto’s Telegram group for three years, helping grow it into one of the largest crypto communities worldwide. His expertise in market structure and price patterns allows him to break down complex trends into clear, actionable insights.
He’s published thousands of articles covering altcoins, Bitcoin cycles, and macro trends.
