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Bitcoin Settles Above $40,000 — Where Will it Start 2024?

Last Updated December 5, 2023 12:55 PM
Nikola Lazic
Last Updated December 5, 2023 12:55 PM

Key Takeaways

  • Bitcoin has spiked 12% since its $38,000 resistance.
  • There is more upside potential ahead, but it may be limited.
  • On-chain data suggest the $45,000 zone as the potential turning point.

Despite struggling around $38,000 for 21 days, the price of Bitcoin finally mustered strength and broke the resistance with strong bullish momentum. We saw a rise of 12% from Saturday, December 2, with the price coming to $42,466 at today’s high. 

Measured from its lowest point since the all-time high of $15,570 made last November, this was a recovery of 172%. As it broke its significant resistance, which could have been strong enough to cause a reversal, where will this rise end? 

BTC Price Analysis 

According to our previous analysis, the count for BTC is pointing out the ending wave from November 12, 2022. We have been anticipating the competition of this highest-degree uptrend around $40,000, after which we should see the first bull market correction. 

More upside expected
In the ending wave

However, since the price broke this resistance, we are looking for the next zone in line with the upside. On the daily chart above, we can see that it is located around $45,000. This area isn’t as significant as the $40,000, but is where we saw minor stopping points from February until April 2022. 

The daily chart RSI is sitting at 76% and is in the overbought zone, but it is still significantly lower than on October 25, when the price started consolidating before this last uptrend.

One more highest high ahead
wave 3 near completion

Zooming into the hourly chart and inspecting the wave structure of the last uptrend, we can see that there is still more room to go. If this was the ending wave, it is the lower degree five-wave impulse out of which we are in wave 3. 

This means two more waves should form a corrective wave 4 and another higher high. Judging by the length of wave 3, which looks like it has been completed or is near completion. The furthest level of this zone is at $46,165, so that would be our highest price target for the end of 2023.

Bitcoin On-chan 

Some on-chain evidence supports the significance behind $45,000 serving as a resistance zone. As pointed out by Gustavo Faria in CryptoQuant’s quicktake , the $45,000 mark holds substantial significance for Bitcoin, both technically and for a large group of Bitcoin holders.

The $45,000 mark is a critical price point, particularly for investors who bought Bitcoin 2 to 3 years ago, as it reflects their cost basis. These long-term holders, known as HODLers, have consistently held onto their positions, anticipating Bitcoin’s future value to be higher.

$45,000 zone

A noteworthy 16% of Bitcoin’s active supply is held by these investors who have been in the market for 2 to 3 years. Their investment decisions are crucial as they can heavily influence market trends.

2-3 year ago

This group accounts for one-third of Bitcoin’s realized cap, highlighting its significant role in the market. Changes in their behavior, such as selling or holding, especially around the $45k break-even point, could lead to a reversal in Bitcoin’s price. 

This price level is a key threshold for these medium-term Bitcoin holders and can greatly affect the market’s direction. It could foster positive market sentiment if the price consistently exceeds $45,000.

However, if the price struggles to surpass this level, it might trigger selling. Monitoring the flow of Bitcoin from these holders to exchanges is vital in predicting market movements. Such surveillance can reveal whether these investors plan to sell or maintain their holdings, thus affecting market trends around this critical price point.

Conclusion

One way or another, the price of Bitcoin is headed to its first bull market correction after the current rise ends. Considering the fact that this uptrend has lasted for over a year now (since November 21, 2022), there isn’t much more room to go, especially not straight to a new all-time high. This is why, around the year-end we are going to see it topping out and starting its first corrective phase.

Depending on the endpoint, we can project the correction target more accurately, but at the start of 2024, we believe that Bitcoin is going to start this correction. It could push the price to as low as $20,000 again, or it can maintain it above $25,000, but in order to proceed into a sustainable multi-year bull market, it needs to establish the first macro higher low.

Disclaimer

Please note that the contents of this article are not financial or investing advice. The information provided in this article is the author’s opinion only and should not be considered as offering trading or investing recommendations. We do not make any warranties about the completeness, reliability and accuracy of this information. The cryptocurrency market suffers from high volatility and occasional arbitrary movements. Any investor, trader, or regular crypto users should research multiple viewpoints and be familiar with all local regulations before committing to an investment.

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