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Key Takeaways

XRP has broken below a critical support zone, falling below the $1.20-$1.22 range and putting the psychologically important $1 level at risk.
A separate bear flag formation points to an even steeper decline toward $0.94, implying roughly 15% downside from current levels.
Technical momentum remains weak, with XRP trading within a broader downtrend and struggling to reclaim key resistance levels.

XRP is facing mounting downside pressure after losing a critical support zone that had held firm for weeks.

Following a sharp market-wide selloff that dragged major cryptocurrencies lower, XRP broke beneath the $1.20-$1.22 range and is now trading near $1.11, putting the psychologically important $1 level back into focus.

While buyers have managed to defend the $1.08-$1.10 area for now, technical indicators suggest the recovery remains fragile and could be vulnerable to another wave of selling.

The broader trend continues to favor bears. XRP remains trapped inside a long-term descending channel, and recent price action has failed to generate the momentum needed to signal a meaningful reversal.

Instead, multiple bearish chart formations and weakening on-chain metrics are converging around similar downside targets, increasing the likelihood of a deeper correction if support levels fail.

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Head-and-Shoulders Pattern Signals Breakdown Risk

One of the clearest warning signs on XRP’s shorter timeframes is the emergence of a head-and-shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.

This formation, widely viewed as a bearish reversal signal, consists of three peaks, with the middle peak higher than the other two. The key level to watch is the neckline support around $1.09.

XRP/USDT 4-hour chart. | Credit: TradingView

Since early June, XRP has been building the right shoulder of this pattern while struggling to reclaim higher resistance levels.

If sellers force a decisive breakdown below the neckline, the pattern’s projected target is near $0.99.

Such a move would mark XRP’s first drop below the $1 threshold in months and could accelerate bearish sentiment across the market.

However, the pattern is not yet confirmed. A recovery above $1.12 and sustained buying pressure could invalidate the setup and open the door for a short-term rebound.

Until that happens, the risk remains tilted toward further downside.

Bear Flag Formation Points to a Move Toward $0.94

Adding to the bearish outlook is the development of a bear flag pattern on the 4-hour timeframe.

Bear flags typically form after a sharp decline, followed by a period of consolidation that slopes slightly upward before the prevailing downtrend resumes.

XRP bear flag — XRP is testing the lower edge of a bear flag. | Credit: TradingView

This is precisely the structure XRP has been forming after its recent collapse. The flag’s lower boundary currently sits near $1.10, making it a critical level for short-term traders.

A confirmed close below this support would activate the pattern and imply a downside target around $0.94, representing roughly a 15% decline from current prices.

Momentum indicators support this bearish scenario. XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains below the neutral 50 level, signaling that sellers continue to maintain control of the market.

Unless buyers can reclaim the $1.15-$1.20 resistance zone, any near-term bounce is likely to be viewed as a temporary relief rally rather than the start of a sustained recovery.

On-Chain Data Suggests XRP Has Not Reached Capitulation Levels Yet

Beyond chart patterns, on-chain data also points to the possibility of additional losses.

Glassnode’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) metric shows XRP approaching levels that historically coincide with investor stress and capitulation.

During previous bear market cycles in 2018, 2020, and 2022, XRP typically declined toward lower MVRV pricing bands before establishing a durable bottom.

XRP MVRV — XRP’s MVRV approaches historically low levels. | Credit: Glassnode

Based on current readings, those historical stress zones align with prices near $0.96, reinforcing the bearish targets derived from technical analysis.

Despite the negative price action, one notable countertrend remains. Spot XRP ETFs have continued attracting strong inflows, with institutional investors adding exposure even as the token declines.

While this divergence could eventually provide support, ETF demand has not yet translated into meaningful buying pressure on the chart.

For now, XRP remains at a critical crossroads. Support between $1.08 and $1.10 must hold to prevent a deeper breakdown. If that area fails, bearish targets between $0.94 and $0.99 become increasingly likely.

Conversely, a recovery above $1.12-$1.15 would weaken the current bearish outlook and suggest that buyers are beginning to regain control.

Top Picks for XRP

Key Takeaways

Michael Saylor claimed at Bitcoin Prague that he never said Strategy would never sell Bitcoin.
Multiple public statements from 2022 to 2026 show Saylor repeatedly saying Strategy was not a seller.
The controversy follows Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC.

Michael Saylor has claimed he never said Strategy would “never sell” Bitcoin at the Bitcoin Prague conference this week — after facing criticism over the firm’s sale of 32 BTC.

As the debate continues over his words, CCN has listed all the documented instances in which Saylor, in fact, said Strategy would never sell Bitcoin.

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Saylor Defends Strategy Bitcoin Sale After Backlash

Speaking at Bitcoin Prague, Saylor pushed back against critics who accused him of abandoning his long-standing position on bitcoin.

“And I refuse to do it because a troll on Twitter says, ‘Hey, you said never sell your Bitcoin,'” Saylor said.

“Okay, fine, I’ll destroy a $100 billion company so that I don’t sell my Bitcoin.”

Saylor argued that many critics had misunderstood his comments over the years, distinguishing between advice he gave to Bitcoin holders and the company’s treasury management decisions.

“By the way, I said to you never sell your Bitcoin,” he said. “I never said that the company wouldn’t sell its Bitcoin.”

He added that Strategy had long disclosed that it retained flexibility over its holdings.

“And anybody who’s been listening to our earnings calls or reading our disclosures, or has half a brain knows for the last five years, we’ve been very clear that of course we sell Bitcoin if [we] have…”

Timeline: When Michael Saylor Said Strategy Would Never Sell Bitcoin

January 19, 2022 – Bloomberg Interview

Asked whether MicroStrategy would ever sell Bitcoin after the crypto had fallen roughly 40% from its highs, Saylor gave what remains his most widely cited answer.

“Never. No. We’re not sellers. We’re only acquiring and holding bitcoin. That’s our strategy.”

The comments were made specifically in response to questions about the company’s bitcoin treasury.

2022–2024 – ‘Acquire and Hold’ Strategy

Throughout numerous interviews, conference appearances, and earnings calls, Saylor repeatedly described Bitcoin as a long-term treasury reserve asset that would be accumulated rather than sold.

He frequently compared Bitcoin to generational assets such as land or a family business, arguing that owners should borrow against it rather than dispose of it.

February 2024 – Bloomberg Television

Saylor again dismissed the idea of selling Bitcoin.

“There’s just no reason to sell the winner,” he said. “Bitcoin is the exit strategy.”

March 2024 – Yahoo Finance

During an interview focused on Bitcoin’s long-term role within Strategy’s treasury, Saylor reiterated the company’s buy-and-hold philosophy.

“We believe that the highest, best use of capital is to buy Bitcoin and hold the Bitcoin,” he said.

When asked what the ultimate purpose of holding bitcoin was if it would never be sold, Saylor delivered one of his most famous lines.

“Let me say it a different way. People that use fiat currency as a store of value, there’s a name for them. We call them poor.”

The interview became a defining moment for the “never sell” narrative that later spread widely across social media.

October 2024 – Third-Quarter Earnings Call

Saylor described Bitcoin as a “permanent treasury reserve asset” that would be acquired and held indefinitely.

February 2025 – ‘Never Sell Your Bitcoin’

Saylor again publicly advocated holding Bitcoin indefinitely, posting and repeating variations of the phrase: “Never sell your Bitcoin.”

Later that month, he reiterated his “21 Rules of Bitcoin.” Rule 20 stated:

“You do not sell your BTC.”

February 2025 – Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000

As bitcoin declined sharply, Saylor intensified his messaging.

Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin.

— Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 28, 2025

“Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the BTC.”

March 2025 – Strategy ‘Would Never Sell’ Bitcoin

Saylor stated that Strategy would “never sell” its Bitcoin holdings, further cementing supporters’ expectations that the company would remain a perpetual accumulator.

July 2025 – Buying Forever

Acknowledging the company’s increasingly predictable accumulation strategy, Saylor said:

“I’m going to be buying the top forever.”

February 2026 – CNBC Squawk Box

Asked how Strategy would respond to a prolonged Bitcoin downturn, Saylor said the company would continue accumulating rather than selling.

“We’re not going to be selling; we’re going to be buying Bitcoin,” he told CNBC.

He added that he expected Strategy would buy Bitcoin “every quarter forever.”

Shift in Michael Saylor’s Strategy Bitcoin Messaging

Saylor’s Bitcoin Prague comments represent a notable shift from years of statements.

While Saylor now argues that “never sell your Bitcoin” was primarily advice directed at individual investors, critics point to multiple instances in which he explicitly said it about Strategy.

Critics have come out in force against the famed Chairman, with one X user writing: “You fell for this grifter and his Ponzi scheme.”

Another wrote: “Anyone who took his ‘never sell your Bitcoin’ literally is dumb. Seriously dumb.”

Following the firm’s Bitcoin sale last week, an X post from Saylor ruffled the feathers of many Bitcoin holders.

Saylor wrote in a cryptic message on X with a single question: “32?”

The majority of X users correctly guessed that the post was a classic Saylor hint at buying more Bitcoin, as the firm bought 1,550 BTC on June 8.

However, some speculated the post could be a prediction that Bitcoin’s price may fall to $32,000, with Saylor “trolling” the market in the process.

“Easy to troll when it’s other people’s money you’re losing,” said one X user.

Another wrote: “Bro crashed the whole market and is now trolling.”

Top Picks for Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

Ethereum staking demand is surging, with nearly 3 million ETH waiting to enter staking, creating an estimated 50-day entry queue.
The imbalance between heavy staking inflows and minimal outflows reflects strong long-term confidence in Ethereum, despite ETH remaining down roughly 44% in 2026.
Spot Ethereum ETFs, corporate treasury allocations, and long-term holders are all contributing to the ongoing reduction in available ETH supply.

Ethereum’s staking ecosystem is sending one of the strongest confidence signals the market has seen in months.

While ETH continues to trade under pressure and remains significantly below its previous highs, investor behavior tells a very different story.

Nearly 3 million ETH are currently waiting to enter staking, forcing new participants to endure an estimated 50-day queue, while the exit queue has effectively fallen to zero.

At the same time, exchange balances continue to hit record lows, institutional accumulation is growing, and derivatives traders are increasingly positioning for a recovery.

Together, these trends suggest that despite the prevailing fear across crypto markets, long-term conviction in Ethereum remains remarkably strong.

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Ethereum Staking Demand Surges Despite Market Weakness

One of the clearest indicators of investor sentiment is the behavior of stakers. Currently, almost no ETH holders are rushing to unstake their assets.

The exit queue has collapsed to virtually zero, meaning validators who wish to leave can do so within minutes.

In contrast, nearly 3 million ETH are waiting to enter the staking system, creating a backlog of roughly 50 days for new participants.

ETH aggregated open interest chart. | Credit: Coinalyze

This dynamic highlights a significant imbalance between supply and demand. Rather than seeking liquidity or reducing exposure, investors are voluntarily locking up capital for long periods in exchange for staking rewards.

Such behavior typically reflects confidence in Ethereum’s long-term prospects rather than expectations of further downside.

The trend is particularly notable given Ethereum’s difficult price performance. ETH is down roughly 44% in 2026 and trading around $1,660 amid extreme fear across the broader crypto market.

Yet stakers appear willing to look beyond short-term volatility, treating Ethereum increasingly as a productive, yield-bearing asset rather than a purely speculative investment.

As more ETH is staked, the circulating supply continues to shrink, creating conditions that could amplify future price movements if demand accelerates.

Shrinking Supply Creates a Potential Supply Shock

Beyond staking, Ethereum’s available supply is tightening across multiple fronts. Exchange reserves have fallen to just 14.5 million ETH, the lowest level ever recorded.

Since late 2023, more than 6 million ETH have been withdrawn from exchanges, reflecting a growing preference for long-term holding and staking.

Several factors are driving this trend. Spot Ethereum ETFs continue accumulating ETH, corporate treasuries are gradually adding exposure, and long-term investors are increasingly moving coins into cold storage.

Ethereum is getting harder to buy.

Exchange reserves have dropped to their lowest level ever, while ETFs and long-term holders continue pulling ETH off the market. A major supply shift is happening behind the scenes.

➜ ETH on exchanges has fallen to just 14.5M ETH, an all-time… pic.twitter.com/dxyKORGmmL

— Lucky (@LLuciano_BTC) June 11, 2026

Combined with the surge in staking participation, these developments are steadily reducing the amount of ETH readily available for trading.

Historically, major rallies often emerge when the liquid supply contracts before market demand fully returns. With fewer coins available on exchanges, even modest increases in buying pressure can have an outsized impact on price.

While demand has yet to fully recover, the foundations for a potential supply-driven rally are increasingly visible.

The key question now is whether renewed investor demand can catch up to the rapidly shrinking supply base.

Derivatives Markets Reveal Growing Bullish Conviction

While spot market activity remains relatively subdued, derivatives traders are becoming increasingly aggressive. Binance’s Ether futures open interest has climbed to a record 3.7 million ETH, representing more than 44% of all Ether futures positions globally.

This surge suggests traders are building leveraged exposure despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.

Additional indicators support this shift in sentiment. ETH’s weekly taker buy-sell ratio has improved to 1.0 from 0.95, while the broader market ratio across exchanges has similarly risen to 1.0.

Binance ETH/USDT liquidation heatmap. | Credit: CoinGlass

These readings suggest buyers are becoming more active after months of persistent selling pressure.

However, risks remain elevated. Perpetual futures activity is expanding far faster than spot demand, indicating that speculative positioning is leading the current recovery narrative.

Liquidation data reveals nearly $8 billion in short positions concentrated between $2,200 and $2,400, potentially creating fuel for a powerful short squeeze if ETH begins moving higher.

At the same time, substantial long liquidation pools remain below current prices, highlighting the fragile balance between bullish and bearish positioning.

Top Picks for Ethereum

Key Takeaways

SWIFT’s new blockchain-based shared ledger validates Ripple’s long-standing vision of faster, programmable cross-border payments.
The system uses tokenized bank deposits rather than XRP, thereby supporting Ripple’s thesis without guaranteeing demand for the token.
XRP’s opportunity remains in high-cost remittance corridors, where it can reduce settlement times and liquidity requirements.

SWIFT’s move to build a blockchain-based shared ledger marks a turning point for cross-border payments and reads as a validation of Ripple’s case for a decade.

The stakes are enormous: payment instructions carried by SWIFT are associated with roughly $150 trillion in annual transaction value, with daily cross-border flows near $5 trillion.

The catch for XRP holders is that SWIFT’s design does not run on XRP, and nothing in the system requires the token.

What SWIFT Is Actually Building

SWIFT introduced the shared ledger at Sibos 2025 and, on March 30, 2026, said it had completed the design phase and moved to a first minimum viable product, with live transactions targeted this year and more than 40 banks involved.

The ledger uses an Ethereum-compatible architecture built on Hyperledger Besu, with smart contracts to record, sequence, and validate payments around the clock. It settles using tokenized commercial bank deposits that stay inside regulated banking systems, not a public crypto asset.

The groundwork was SWIFT’s full migration to the ISO 20022 messaging standard on November 22, 2025, followed by trials with Citi using USDC, an HSBC and Ant International tokenized-deposit proof-of-concept, and a tokenized-bond settlement with BNP Paribas Securities Services, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Societe Generale FORGE.

SWIFT is separately rolling out a retail payments framework covering more than 50 banks across more than 25 corridors, with the first wave going live by mid-2026.

Why It Validates Ripple’s Thesis

For years, Ripple has argued that correspondent banking is slow, costly, and closed on weekends, and that a shared ledger with programmable settlement fixes those gaps.

Traditional SWIFT transfers still average one to three business days in many corridors, with fees of roughly $10 to $50 per transaction before FX spreads. SWIFT building 24/7 settlement across tokenized deposits confirms the direction Ripple bet on.

The company also benefits well beyond the token. Ripple now holds more than 75 regulatory licenses, counts over 300 financial institutions on its network, runs the RLUSD stablecoin as a settlement option, and has plugged XRP Ledger access into traditional clearing through Ripple Prime (formerly Hidden Road) as a participant in DTCC’s NSCC.

Ripple Prime is part of DTCC's "Tokenized Securities" working group, set to launch its pilot in July 2026 and hit full capacity by October 2026. And yes, of course, Ripple Prime utilizes XRP.

When institutions transfer clear or liquidate these multi trilllion dollar assets among… pic.twitter.com/qgkN7WR0IV

— CharuSan XRP (@CharuSan83) June 10, 2026

The overlap is striking within SWIFT’s new retail framework: at least 30 of the 50-plus participating banks already have ties to Ripple’s ecosystem, and around 40% of those Ripple-connected banks use On-Demand Liquidity, which requires XRP as a bridge asset. They are building on both tracks rather than choosing one.

Why XRP Does Not Automatically Benefit

SWIFT’s ledger is deliberately neutral and deposit-based, allowing it to move value without touching XRP. SWIFT has positioned itself as an interoperability layer for more than 11,000 institutions and has avoided issuing its own asset or endorsing any chain. RippleNet, the rail most banks use, does not require XRP either.

The scale gap is the hard number behind the headline.

Ripple reports cumulative institutional payment volume of more than $95 billion, with monthly ODL flows exceeding $15 billion. Set against $130 trillion to $150 trillion in annual cross-border volume, even tens of billions in yearly ODL settlement rounds are a fraction of 1% of the market.

Analysts estimate that XRP-linked rails could realistically capture 2% to 3% of SWIFT-scale volume in the near term, while SWIFT retains 75% to 80% of institutional flows.

Any XRP exposure within SWIFT’s orbit can flow through optional paths, such as the Thunes integration, which recently extended stablecoin payouts to all 11,500 SWIFT-connected banks, and creates a routing chain that can settle on Ripple’s ODL rails using XRP. No step in that routing forces a bank to hold or use the token. The result is demand optionality, not guaranteed volume.

Where XRP Could Still Find Demand

The token’s opening sits in the corridors that SWIFT serves the worst. SWIFT acknowledges that about 80% of a payment’s processing time happens in the last mile after funds reach the destination bank, and remittance corridors to low-income destinations can carry total costs near 7%.

Why is the last mile the longest?

While transactions across the Swift network can happen in seconds, around 80% of a payment’s journey is spent in the “last mile” – the time between a payment reaching the beneficiary bank and being credited to the end account. Domestic… pic.twitter.com/HiFISDyLFZ

— Swift (@swiftcommunity) April 23, 2026

Partners such as SBI Remit have used XRP to cut fees from the 3% to 7% range to roughly 0.15% and compress settlement from 36 to 96 hours down to seconds. About 93% of XRP-based cross-border payments settle in under 10 seconds.

Geography reinforces the case.

Roughly 45% of major remittance providers in Asia-Pacific now use blockchain or digital-asset rails alongside or instead of SWIFT, and corridors such as Japan-to-Philippines and UAE-to-Philippines are where Ripple’s local bank partnerships and pre-positioned ODL liquidity run deepest.

By removing pre-funded nostro accounts, ODL also cuts pre-funding and nostro requirements by roughly 65% in institutional corridors, against an estimated $27 trillion in dormant pre-funded liquidity globally.

Digital Perspectives just covered
one of the most important concepts
in crypto — and most people scrolled past.

So let me break it down.$XRP and Ripple's ODL (On-Demand Liquidity)
are specifically designed to replace the
$27 trillion trapped in Nostro/Vostro accounts.

Here's… https://t.co/Wi2C7OsVTJ

— Cryptex Intel (@CrytexIntel) May 23, 2026

XRP Ledger is also building an institutional footprint, with tokenized real-world assets on the network rising from roughly $24 million at the start of 2025 to about $408 million, including close to $282 million in US Treasury exposure.

What To Watch

The distinction that matters is between Ripple, the business, and XRP, the asset. SWIFT’s blockchain push strengthens the first by normalizing the model Ripple sells. It does little for the second unless banks actively choose XRP as a bridge in live corridors.

Ripple chief executive officer Brad Garlinghouse has floated XRP carrying 14% of SWIFT-linked value by 2030, which would mean routing roughly $21 trillion a year through XRP liquidity corridors, orders of magnitude above today’s flows.

The signals to track are whether SWIFT’s MVP graduates to production, whether deposit-based settlement crowds out bridge assets in major routes, and whether monthly ODL volume compounds meaningfully beyond the current $15 billion run rate rather than plateauing in its APAC remittance niches.

Key Takeaways

Mike Alfred said Bitcoin could climb to between $150,000 and $250,000 in its next major move.
Alfred reiterated that Bitcoin will eventually reach $1 million.
The famed commentator dismissed concerns that geopolitical events will dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory.

Bitcoin’s price could surge to as much as $250,000 over the next six months as improving economic conditions fuel a risk-asset rally, famed crypto commentator Mike Alfred said on the Bitcoin Historian podcast.

Mike Alfred’s Latest Bitcoin Price Prediction

On the podcast, Alfred said he expects Bitcoin’s next major move to carry Bitcoin into a range of $150,000 to $250,000.

“I think the next move in Bitcoin finally takes us to 150, 200, 250 whatever, and at that point people will actually start to get bullish,” Alfred said on the podcast.

He added that the rally would likely coincide with mounting excitement surrounding AI companies, particularly ahead of potential IPOs from firms such as Anthropic and OpenAI.

According to Alfred, financial markets have spent several years constrained by high interest rates and policy uncertainty.

He said this has created a “compressed” environment for risk assets.

Alfred believes those pressures are beginning to ease and is ready to potentially unleash a powerful rebound.

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Reiterates $1M Bitcoin Price Prediction

Beyond his near-term Bitcoin target, Alfred reiterated his long-held view that Bitcoin’s price will

Rather than focusing on timing, he claimed the goal was virtually inevitable due to Bitcoin’s decentralized nature and growing adoption.

“I don’t think anything could stop it,” Alfred said.

He argued that critics should focus on identifying credible reasons why the cryptocurrency would fail to reach that level rather than searching for a bullish thesis.

“I don’t think it really matters specifically when. I think that the key thing is that it’s almost certainly going to happen,” he added.

Pushes Back on Conflict and Regulation Concerns

Alfred also dismissed concerns that geopolitical tensions, including the Iran conflict, would have a lasting impact on Bitcoin prices.

He said markets have become increasingly desensitized to geopolitical headlines and suggested investors are paying less attention to developments than they were earlier in the year.

On regulation, Alfred also highlighted the Clarity Act as an important catalyst for the digital-asset sector.

However, he argued that Bitcoin was in its own lane, unaffected by these outside factors.

“Bitcoin is following its own trajectory over a long period of time… almost like independent of these other variables,” he said.

Sees Several Months of Strength for Risk Assets

Alfred said he expects favorable conditions for risk assets to persist for at least the next several months.

He argued that many investors remain overly bearish following recent market weakness and could be forced to chase prices higher if markets continue to rally.

“I think anybody who’s still kind of negative and bearish here is going to end up chasing over the next few months, and that’s what’s going to cause the market to go up more,” he added.

Alfred also pushed back against claims that Bitcoin is nearing a major cycle top, arguing that investor sentiment remains far from euphoric.

“I don’t think there’ll be any sort of long-term macro top until everybody’s excited about markets again. I haven’t seen any consistent excitement or euphoria about risk assets broadly,” Alfred said.

He described the recent pullback as a mid-cycle correction rather than the start of a prolonged bear market.

Predicts Broader Wall Street Adoption of Bitcoin

Looking further ahead, on top of Bitcoin’s price surge, Alfred said he expects ownership to become commonplace across the financial industry as institutional adoption continues to expand.

“Eventually, it’s just going to be ubiquitous. There’s no reason, it’s just another asset class,” Alfred said.

He compared current skepticism toward Bitcoin with historic resistance to equities, arguing that younger generations will eventually view Bitcoin ownership as normal.

“At some point within the next 10 to 20 years, it’ll be so ubiquitous that younger people won’t realize that there was a time where older people thought younger people were gambling when they bought Bitcoin,” he said.

Remains Bullish on AI Infrastructure Boom

Alfred also discussed opportunities in artificial intelligence and data-center infrastructure, describing AI as a long-term investment theme that remains in its early stages.

“AI is probably only three, four years into this deep part of its capex cycle,” Alfred said.

He compared the trend to other technology cycles and suggested the sector could continue to expand for decades.

“I think AI is going to follow a similar kind of super trend trajectory that’s going to take it 20, 30, 40, 50 years in the future,” he added.

Top Picks for Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

Japan is advancing a crypto reform bill that would classify digital assets as financial products and cut taxes on eligible crypto gains to 20%.
The proposal would introduce stricter disclosure requirements, enhanced exchange oversight, and insider trading rules while paving the way for crypto ETFs.
Staking rewards, DeFi yields, NFTs, and transactions on foreign exchanges would remain subject to higher tax rates.

Japan moved a step closer to overhauling its crypto rules after a key parliamentary committee advanced legislation that would reclassify digital assets as financial products and cut the top tax on crypto gains to a flat 20%. The bill cleared the Committee on Financial Affairs on June 10, with a plenary vote still pending final confirmation.

Driven by the Financial Services Agency, the reform would move crypto transaction rules out of the Payment Services Act and place them under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, the framework that governs stocks and bonds.

What the Bill Changes

Crypto gains are currently taxed as miscellaneous income at progressive rates reaching 55%. The bill would replace that with a separate flat rate of 20% and enable loss carryforwards, both of which align crypto with securities.

BULLISH: Japan proposes reducing crypto capital gains tax from up to 55% to 20%.

The move comes as Japan seeks to classify crypto assets under a framework similar to stocks and bonds. pic.twitter.com/dpR56eflIv

— CoinGecko (@coingecko) June 11, 2026

Roughly 105 tokens listed on domestic-licensed exchanges, including Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH), are expected to qualify, with disclosure requirements attached.

The tax change is slated for 2028 for individual traders, subject to final passage, because it depends on the reclassification amendments passing first. A corporate exemption on unrealized gains began on April 1, 2026.

Investor Protections and Tougher Penalties

The bill pairs tax relief with stricter rules. It would ban insider trading on non-public information and impose penalties in line with those for listed securities.

Crypto firms would face mandatory disclosure and annual transparency reporting, and exchange oversight would tighten.

The maximum prison term for unregistered operators would rise from three years to 10 years. The measure builds on April 2026 amendments to the Exchange Act that reclassified crypto as financial instruments and introduced insider-trading restrictions.

Crypto ETFs and Investment Products

Japan still has no domestic crypto ETFs. Nomura and SBI are preparing crypto-integrated investment trusts pending FSA approval, and the reclassification under the Exchange Act is the legal step required before such products can list.

Japan's new crypto bill also opens the door to crypto ETFs — Japan’s new crypto bill also opens the door to crypto ETFs. | Source: @BullTheoryio

Asset managers have pointed to mid-2026 as the target for the first spot Bitcoin vehicles, although approval timelines remain pending with the FSA.

What Stays Taxed at Higher Rates

The relief would not apply across the board. Staking rewards, lending and DeFi yields, NFTs, and trades on foreign or unregistered exchanges would stay classified as miscellaneous income at rates up to 55%, creating a two-tier system.

Stablecoins also remain under the payment services framework rather than the securities regime.

Other Crypto Developments in Japan

Movement on the bill has run alongside a busy stretch for Japanese digital finance:

Japan’s three megabanks, MUFG, Sumitomo Mitsui, and Mizuho, plan to jointly issue a yen stablecoin for live commercial transactions during fiscal 2026, built on the Progmat ledger platform and structured through a trust, with a dollar version to follow. The plan extends an FSA-supervised pilot that began in November 2025.
JPYC, the country’s first yen stablecoin issued in late 2025, was designated a money transfer service provider by the FSA in April 2026, raised close to $30 million in Series B funding, joined by Metaplanet, and added regional bank partners, including Hokkaido Bank and Yokohama Bank.
SBI Holdings and Startale launched JPYSC, a trust-bank-backed yen stablecoin, in February 2026, and the Japan Blockchain Foundation announced EJPY on Japan Open Chain and Ethereum in May. Sony Bank partnered with JPYC for retail-focused yen tokens.
Metaplanet has kept building a Bitcoin treasury and holds 40,177 BTC (at the time of writing). Their unique treasury system uses yen-backed stablecoins to manage daily operations frictionlessly.
The FSA opened a public consultation on licensing, stablecoin issuance, taxation, and custody, aiming to finalize the framework by the end of 2026, after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama designated 2026 a year for financial reform.

Industry Reaction and Timeline

Koichi Kano, Japan head at market maker QCP Group, said the legislation gives market participants long-awaited clarity.

Some committee members called the proposals “too heavy-handed” and urged the FSA to balance investor protection with market viability, while SBI’s chief executive had earlier criticized the pace as “extremely slow.”

When Yoshitaka Kitao says "Too late," the industry listens. 🏛️🚫

As the head of SBI Holdings and a massive advocate for XRP, Kitao knows Japan can’t afford to wait until 2028 for Crypto ETFs. While regulators deliberate, SBI is already building the infrastructure. Speed is… pic.twitter.com/3moC5wI6x0

— 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸XRP (@BankXRP) January 25, 2026

Legal revisions in Japan typically take about a year to promulgate after Diet approval, leaving the rollout dependent on the votes still ahead.

Key Takeaways

Dinari has launched a tokenized SpaceX equity token, $SPCXD, on Hyperliquid’s HyperCore, marking the platform’s first spot-listed tokenized US stock.
Unlike synthetic products, SPCXD is backed 1:1 by real SpaceX shares held in regulated custody and can carry dividend and redemption rights.
Dinari is accepting pre-orders ahead of SpaceX’s June 12 Nasdaq debut, with the token available to eligible investors in more than 85 countries.

Dinari has listed a tokenized version of SpaceX equity, trading as $SPCXD, for spot trading on Hyperliquid’s HyperCore, making it the first tokenized US equity to trade spot on the venue ahead of SpaceX’s planned Nasdaq debut.

The rocket maker filed its S-1 with the SEC on May 20 and is scheduled to begin trading on June 12 under the ticker SPCX, in an offering targeting a valuation near $1.75 trillion and raising about $75 billion, which would rank as the largest US listing on record.

Gabe Otte, co-founder and chief executive officer of Dinari, described the move as the launch of SpaceX, trading under the ticker $SPCXD, “as the first tokenized equity ever available for spot trading on HyperCore,” Otte told CCN.

“While other tokenized asset initiatives have launched on HyperEVM, no company has previously deployed tokenized equities directly on HyperCore. We will list additional assets in the coming weeks,” Otte noted.

Distribution Across Traditional Finance and Defi

Dinari is routing the token through both conventional finance and onchain markets. The company says SPCXD will reach eligible investors in more than 85 jurisdictions, with SpaceX shares not otherwise made broadly available outside the United States.

“Notably, we are approaching distribution through both traditional financial channels and DeFi simultaneously,” Otte explained. “Available on Dinari’s app and through our network of fintech, brokerage, and neobank partners, global investors can trade SpaceX 24/7 through dShares. We are also taking pre-orders this week.”

How Spcxd Differs From Synthetic SpaceX Tokens

Dinari describes dShares as real equities held in regulated custody, with each token backed 1:1 by an underlying share and carrying dividend, corporate-action, and redemption rights.

The structure differs from the synthetic SpaceX perpetuals already trading on Hyperliquid and several exchanges, which track an implied price without holding any shares and confer no ownership rights. Trade.xyz listed one such contract, SPCX-USDC, on Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 framework in May at a $150 reference price.

Dinari also states that it is not SpaceX’s transfer agent and does not represent that SpaceX has sponsored or authorized the product. SpaceX remains private, with transfer restrictions on its stock, and Dinari says the tokenization does not create new shares or alter the company’s capitalization table.

Restricted Tokens and What Holders Own

Otte said the launch introduces a token model that lets assets move across permissionless venues while remaining tied to shareholder rights.

“Additionally, Dinari is introducing a new token architecture designed to address a key challenge facing tokenized securities: enabling assets to move through permissionless markets while maintaining a connection to the ownership rights and protections associated with the underlying security,” Otte noted.

“Under the framework, dShares held in compliant, KYC-enabled environments retain rights associated with the underlying equity, including dividends, corporate actions, and redemption rights. When assets move outside compliant environments, they automatically become a restricted token that continues to circulate across supported onchain venues, though certain ownership rights are suspended until the asset returns to a compliant wallet.”

Under the model, a buyer on a permissionless venue such as HyperCore typically holds the restricted version, with dividend and redemption rights suspended until the token returns to a compliant wallet and the holder clears verification.

Pre-Orders and IPO-Day Mechanics

Dinari is accepting limit orders before the open rather than executing trades in advance.

The company expects the first trades to cross between roughly 12:30 and 1 p.m. ET on June 12, and has told users that opening prints could land in the $180 to $200 range, above the $135 IPO price, though it frames the figure as guidance rather than a commitment. Fractional trading will not be available on day one.

Key Takeaways

Layoffs have spread across the gambling sector.
Prediction markets are growing rapidly.
Experts believe more restructuring may be ahead.

Job cuts are accelerating across the online gambling industry as operators face mounting pressure to improve profitability and respond to the rapid rise of prediction markets.

It comes as platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi are attracting billions of dollars in trading activity and reshaping competitive dynamics.

Industry Layoffs Spread Across Gambling Sector

FanDuel became the latest betting operator to conduct another round of workforce reductions in recent weeks.

Front Office Sports reported that FanDuel cut several hundred positions across functions, including software engineering, customer service, and business development.

The sportsbook’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment, confirmed organizational changes had occurred but did not disclose the number of affected employees.

The reported reductions mark FanDuel’s third round of layoffs in less than a year.

Meanwhile, Penn Entertainment recently eliminated more than 75 jobs within its Penn Interactive division, the publication reported.

The company had more than 23,000 employees globally as of the end of 2025, according to regulatory filings.

Industry observers say the layoffs reflect a shift away from the aggressive hiring that characterized the early years of US sports betting expansion following the 2018 repeal of the federal ban on sports wagering.

“Operators hired aggressively to build apps, acquire users, launch in new states, and bolt on new products,” Panayot Kalinov, senior software developer at Casinoreviews.net, told CCN.

Adding: “Now the pressure is on margins, compliance costs, platform consolidation, and proving that those expensive growth teams can actually generate profitable customers.”

Prediction Markets Emerge As Growing Competitive Threat

The restructuring comes as prediction markets experience extraordinary growth.

According to a Bernstein research report cited by CNBC, prediction market trading volumes are on pace to reach approximately $240 billion in 2026, up about 370% from last year.

Bernstein estimates annual volume could approach $1 trillion by 2030 if current growth rates continue.

Kalshi and Polymarket, the two dominant platforms in the sector, have already generated roughly $60 billion in trading volume so far in 2026, surpassing the $51 billion recorded across the entire prediction market industry in 2025.

While sports-related contracts currently account for the majority of prediction market activity, the sector has been rapidly expanding into contracts on economic and political events.

The growth has not gone unnoticed by traditional gambling operators.

Platforms such as DraftKings and Robinhood have already announced prediction market offerings.

Continued Restructuring Ahead?

Industry experts say prediction markets are only one factor behind the gambling layoffs.

“Prediction markets are not the sole reason sportsbooks are cutting staff, but they are absolutely forcing a strategic rethink,” Kalinov said.

Adding: “They compete for the same consumer attention, especially among younger, trading-minded users who may see event contracts as faster, cheaper or more flexible than traditional sports betting.”

Kalinov also pointed to AI as a main reason for the cuts, stating roles tied to customer acquisition and certain trading functions could face greater pressure as automation expands.

“What we are seeing is not simply cost-cutting; it is a reshaping of the operating model,” Kalinov said.

Adding: “Gambling companies are trying to become leaner, more automated and more defensible against both regulatory pressure and new market entrants.”

He expects further layoffs over the next 6 to 12 months, particularly if prediction markets continue to gain regulatory clarity and consumer adoption.

“The industry is not shrinking,” Kalinov said. “But it is becoming much less forgiving of bloated structures.

Gambling Layoffs Surge, But Prediction Market Bans Spread

The rapid expansion of prediction markets is also attracting increasing scrutiny from regulators worldwide, with a growing number of countries moving to restrict the platforms.

Spain became one of the latest jurisdictions to act after launching disciplinary proceedings against both Polymarket and Kalshi in May.

The move followed similar actions elsewhere.

India, Indonesia, Argentina, Brazil, Portugal, and Hungary have all imposed restrictions or blocks on one or both platforms over the past year.

Meanwhile, several European countries have also tightened enforcement against operators that lack local gambling licenses.

Despite the platforms’ claims that they function as financial markets that aggregate information through trading activity, regulators have largely reached a different conclusion.

Authorities in multiple jurisdictions have argued that products allowing users to stake money on uncertain future events fall within existing gambling laws, regardless of whether they use blockchain technology.

However, recent proposals, such as the one in the US, reflect the sector’s argument that event contracts should be regulated differently from traditional sports betting.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s June 2026 selloff was driven by ETF outflows, leverage liquidations, and macroeconomic pressures rather than SpaceX’s IPO filing.
The theory that investors sold Bitcoin to buy SpaceX shares falls apart on timing, as the stock had not yet begun trading during most of the decline.
While mega IPOs may compete with crypto for speculative capital over time, they were not the direct trigger behind Bitcoin’s recent crash.

SpaceX filed to go public on May 20, 2026, teasing a $75 billion raise at a valuation near $1.8 trillion, one of the largest listings in history.

Since that filing, Bitcoin has dropped roughly 20%, slipping under $60,000 on June 5 for the first time since September 2024.

Two events, one timeline, an obvious villain. The problem is that the timeline is the only thing connecting them, and correlation, this clean usually hides a messier truth.

Seductive Story That Falls Apart on Timing

The rotation narrative goes like this: a once-in-a-decade IPO is vacuuming up speculative capital, and traders are selling Bitcoin to fund their SpaceX allocations.

It sounds plausible, especially because the offering routes up to 30% of shares straight to retail through Robinhood, Fidelity, and Schwab, roughly three times the slice a typical IPO reserves for individuals.

If you check the dates, SpaceX does not price until June 11 and does not begin trading on the Nasdaq until June 12, under the ticker SPCX. The bulk of Bitcoin’s decline happened before a single share changed hands.

Investors cannot fund a purchase that has not opened, which means the mechanical “sell Bitcoin, buy SpaceX” trade could not have driven the early June plunge. Onchain and stablecoin flow data reinforce the point, showing no abnormal exodus of crypto capital cashing out to chase the offering during the crash window.

There is even an irony that the rotation theory ignores. SpaceX itself holds Bitcoin, sitting on roughly $789 million in unrealized gains as of late May. The company being blamed for draining Bitcoin is one of its larger corporate holders.

What Actually Drove the Bitcoin Crash

The real engine was mechanical, running on leverage and fund flows. United States spot Bitcoin ETFs bled for 13 consecutive sessions through June 3, the longest outflow streak on record, shedding around $4.4 billion. Those redemptions are not sentiment.

The primary catalyst for the downturn was spot ETF selling pressure. | Source: Bitfinex.

When investors pull money, the issuer sells the underlying Bitcoin on the spot market to raise cash, applying steady, automated downward pressure regardless of what anyone believes about rockets.

On top of that came a leverage flush. Between June 2 and June 5, crypto derivatives liquidations reached roughly $1.6 billion to $1.8 billion, with one stretch force-closing about $394 million in a single hour.

Close to 272,000 traders were wiped out, and the long-short split was lopsided, with the overwhelming majority holding bullish positions that were caught leaning the wrong way.

It was the largest deleveraging event since the prior October’s crash. That is not capital migrating to an IPO, but it points to overcrowded long positioning collapsing under its own weight.

Bitfinex's Catalyst Scorecard — Bitfinex’s Catalyst Scorecard. | Source: Bitfinex.

Sentiment had already been softened a day earlier. On June 1, Strategy, the largest corporate Bitcoin holder, announced its first Bitcoin sale since 2022. The amount was tiny relative to its stack, but it dented the “never sell” conviction that retail had built its thesis around, and it gave nervous longs a reason to hit the exit.

Macro Storm That Hit the Same Week

Bitcoin did not fall in a vacuum. It fell alongside a broad risk-off cascade that had nothing to do with crypto fundamentals. A hotter-than-expected United States jobs report landed that week, reviving fears that the Federal Reserve’s next move could be a rate hike rather than a cut, sending Treasury yields higher and crushing long-duration risk assets.

The Nasdaq dropped 4.2% on June 5, its worst single-day decline of 2026, with chip leaders like Nvidia down around 6% as the AI trade wobbled amid bubble fears.

Geopolitics piled on. Iran launched missiles at Israel that week, the first such attack since the April ceasefire, pushing Brent crude back toward $95 a barrel and stoking the exact inflation worry that keeps the Fed hawkish.

Bitcoin, which trades as a high-beta risk asset far more than as digital gold, did what every speculative position did in that environment. It got sold.

Kernel of Truth in the Rotation Thesis

None of this means the SpaceX story is pure fiction.

There is a legitimate, slower version of it worth taking seriously. For years, crypto held a near monopoly on high-upside, lottery-style speculation. That monopoly is ending. Mega IPOs like SpaceX and the anticipated OpenAI and Anthropic listing, alongside the AI equity boom, now offer the same dopamine to the same risk-hungry investors.

Over time, that competition can pull speculative capital away from crypto, helping explain why Bitcoin struggled even as equities remained near record highs.

But that is a gradual shift, not something that causes a 20% selloff in a matter of days. That distinction matters. Competition for investor attention is real, but the idea that the SpaceX IPO directly triggered a leverage-fueled Bitcoin crash does not hold up when the timeline is examined.

Why the Distinction Matters

Misdiagnosing a crash leads to the wrong conclusions about what comes next. If you believe SpaceX broke Bitcoin, you might expect prices to keep bleeding until IPO mania cools, a vague and untradeable thesis.

If you understand that the move was a leverage washout amplified by record ETF outflows and a hawkish macro shock, you get sharper signposts.

Liquidation cascades exhaust themselves, funding rates have already flipped negative, and forced selling tends to overshoot. The path from here depends on ETF flows stabilizing and the Fed picture clarifying, not on how many retail traders buy SPCX on June 12.

While SpaceX’s IPO dominated headlines, Bitcoin’s decline appears to have been driven by market mechanics rather than capital rotating into the offering. ETF redemptions, leverage unwinds, and macro headwinds played a far larger role.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin rose after the latest US inflation report, with traders focusing on softer underlying inflation despite headline CPI remaining elevated.
US headline inflation came in at 4.2% year-over-year, matching forecasts and remaining well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.
The European Central Bank raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its first rate hike since September 2023.

Bitcoin edged higher on Thursday as investors welcomed signs of easing underlying US inflation, while largely shrugging off the European Central Bank‘s first interest rate hike in nearly three years.

The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed toward the $63,000 mark after fresh inflation data showed that core consumer prices rose less than expected in May.

This reinforces hopes that central banks may avoid further aggressive monetary tightening despite persistent geopolitical and energy-related risks.

The move comes as Bitcoin continues to hover above the psychologically important $60,000 level, a key support zone that traders have closely monitored amid heightened macroeconomic uncertainty.

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Softer Core Inflation Eases Pressure on Risk Assets

According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, headline consumer inflation rose 0.5% month-over-month in May, matching economists’ forecasts. Annual inflation remained at 4.2%, still more than double the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2%.

However, markets focused on a more encouraging development beneath the headline figure. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.2% in the month, below expectations of a 0.3% rise.

US inflation data. | Credit: Trading Economics/US Bureau of Labor Statistics

The softer core reading suggested that underlying price pressures are not accelerating despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and elevated energy costs linked to conflict in the Middle East.

For investors, this distinction matters.

While headline inflation remains stubbornly high, slower growth in core prices reduces the likelihood of additional aggressive Federal Reserve tightening and supports the case that inflation may gradually move lower over time.

Bitcoin reacted positively to the data, with traders viewing the report as a sign that monetary conditions may not become significantly more restrictive in the coming months.

The cryptocurrency has often benefited from improving liquidity expectations, particularly when inflation indicators suggest central banks can afford greater policy flexibility.

ECB Delivers First Rate Hike Since 2023

Adding to the macroeconomic backdrop, the European Central Bank announced a widely anticipated 25-basis-point interest rate increase, its first rate hike since September 2023.

The ECB cited inflationary pressures stemming from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, particularly rising energy costs, as the primary reason for tightening monetary policy.

Following the move, the deposit facility rate increased to 2.25%, while the main refinancing rate rose to 2.40%.

We raised our key interest rates by 0.25 percentage points.

Read today’s decisions https://t.co/U5EJrk1UNJ pic.twitter.com/9nvCBnv4uV

— European Central Bank (@ecb) June 11, 2026

The central bank also revised its inflation outlook, forecasting eurozone inflation to average 3.0% in 2026 before gradually declining toward its 2% target over the coming years.

Despite the policy tightening, market reaction was relatively muted. The euro remained stable against the US dollar, and cryptocurrency markets showed little sign of concern.

Investors appeared more focused on the softer US core inflation figures than on the ECB’s decision, which had already been largely priced into financial markets.

Bitcoin Holds Key Support as Markets Await Fed Signals

While Bitcoin’s immediate reaction was positive, analysts caution that the broader macroeconomic picture remains mixed.

Federal Reserve officials are still expected to maintain a “higher-for-longer” approach to interest rates following stronger-than-expected labor market data released earlier this month.

The latest inflation report may reduce fears of further tightening, but it does not necessarily accelerate the timeline for rate cuts.

Bitcoin price performance — Bitcoin rises above $62,000 after US CPI data and ECB rate hike. | Credit: CoinMarketCap

For Bitcoin, maintaining support above $60,000 remains critical. The cryptocurrency is currently trading at approximately $62,700, with a market capitalization exceeding $1.25 trillion.

Investors continue to view the asset as a barometer for global liquidity conditions, making upcoming Federal Reserve communications and economic data releases particularly important.

Top Picks for Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

BitMine made its largest Ethereum purchase of 2026, acquiring 126,971 ETH in a single week and increasing its total holdings to 5.54 million ETH.
Ethereum remains under heavy pressure, trading around 66% below its August 2025 all-time high of $4,946.
Institutional investors are buying while retail sentiment remains weak, suggesting a growing divergence between long-term conviction and short-term market fear.

Ethereum is facing one of its most challenging periods since the 2022 bear market, with the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency trading nearly 70% below its all-time high and investor sentiment deteriorating amid persistent market weakness.

Yet while retail investors continue to exit positions and spot Ethereum ETFs experience outflows, a growing number of institutional players appear to be viewing the current downturn as a rare accumulation opportunity.

The latest example comes from BitMine Immersion Technologies, which made its largest Ethereum purchase of 2026 by acquiring 126,971 ETH in a single week.

The move has reignited debate over whether Ethereum is approaching a long-term bottom or whether further downside remains ahead.

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BitMine’s Aggressive Accumulation Signals Long-Term Conviction

BitMine’s latest purchase stands out not only for its size but also for its timing. The company tripled its weekly Ethereum acquisition compared to the previous week, bringing its total holdings to 5.54 million ETH, equivalent to approximately 4.59% of Ethereum’s circulating supply.

The purchase comes as Ethereum trades near multi-year lows, having fallen from its August 2025 peak of nearly $5,000 to around $1,620.

While many investors have reduced exposure during the downturn, BitMine Chairman Tom Lee argues that Ethereum’s price weakness is disconnected from the network’s underlying fundamentals.

1/
BitMine provided its latest holdings update for June 8, 2026

$9.6 billion in total crypto + "moonshots":
– 5,543,872 ETH at $1,630 per ETH per ETH (per@coinbase)
– 203 Bitcoin (BTC)
– $200 million stake in Beast Industries @MrBeast
– $88 million stake in…

— Bitmine (NYSE-BMNR) $ETH (@BitMNR) June 8, 2026

The company’s strategy goes beyond simple accumulation. More than 4.7 million ETH of its holdings are actively staked through its institutional staking platform, generating annualized staking revenue estimated at over $230 million.

At current growth rates, BitMine expects staking income could eventually reach $270 million annually.

Lee has also linked Ethereum’s long-term value proposition to the growth of artificial intelligence, arguing that increasingly autonomous AI systems will require decentralized infrastructure for settlement, verification, and security.

While such forecasts remain speculative, they reflect a broader institutional narrative that Ethereum remains one of the most strategically important blockchain networks despite its recent price collapse.

On-Chain Metrics Suggest Ethereum Is Entering a Historic Accumulation Zone

Beyond BitMine’s purchase, several on-chain indicators suggest Ethereum may be approaching valuation levels historically associated with market bottoms.

One of the most notable metrics is the percentage of ETH supply sitting at a threefold profit. According to recent data, only 11% of Ethereum’s supply currently meets that threshold, the lowest reading since February 2017.

Historically, such conditions have emerged during periods of maximum market pessimism rather than euphoric peaks.

ETH/USD monthly chart. | Credit: TradingView

Ethereum’s position remains below the 0.8 MVRV pricing band, a metric commonly used to identify undervaluation zones. Previous instances where ETH traded below this threshold have often coincided with attractive long-term accumulation opportunities.

Network activity provides additional support for the bullish thesis. While active addresses and transaction counts have declined from their early-2026 highs, both metrics remain significantly above levels recorded during the 2025 rally.

Notably, active addresses rebounded sharply when Ethereum approached the $1,500 level, suggesting buyers continue to view that area as a critical support zone.

Perhaps the strongest signal comes from staking activity. The total supply of staked ETH has climbed to a record 39.28 million coins, while validator entry queues remain heavily populated.

This indicates that investors are choosing to lock up ETH for yield generation rather than liquidate holdings during the downturn.

Technical Risks Remain Despite Improving Fundamentals

Despite encouraging on-chain trends, Ethereum’s technical outlook remains fragile.

The cryptocurrency continues to trade below its major moving averages, while momentum indicators such as the MACD and Aroon Oscillator still point toward bearish market control.

Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen into oversold territory, oversold conditions alone do not guarantee a reversal.

Ethereum has broken through the floor of a rising trend channel. | Credit: InvestTech

The most important level remains the $1,500 support zone. Analysts have drawn comparisons to June 2022, when Ethereum briefly collapsed below major support levels before bottoming near $880 and launching a multi-year recovery.

Today’s market structure bears similarities, with ETH currently down approximately 68% from its cycle high.

If Ethereum can maintain weekly closes above $1,500, the current selloff could ultimately resemble a capitulation event that precedes recovery.

However, a decisive breakdown below that level could expose the next major support zone near $1,000, creating the risk of another significant leg lower.

Top Picks for Ethereum

Key Takeaways

Mastercard introduced Agent Pay for Machines on June 10, a service that lets AI agents and connected systems pay one another automatically across its global network, with some payments as small as fractions of a cent.
More than 30 partners signed on, including Stripe, Adyen, Coinbase, Cloudflare, OKX, Ripple, Polygon, and Solana, with settlement supported across cards, bank accounts, and stablecoins.
Mastercard frames the product as long-term infrastructure for agentic commerce rather than a near-term revenue driver, joining rivals Visa, Stripe, and Google in the race to build payment rails for machines.

Mastercard rolled out a payments service on June 10 designed to let artificial intelligence agents transact directly with one another, deepening its push into a market where software, not people, initiates purchases.

Agent Pay for Machines, known as AP4M, allows transactions to be permissioned, orchestrated, and settled at machine speed across Mastercard’s global network, the company said. Some payments run as small as fractions of a cent and execute continuously in the background of digital commerce.

Agent Pay for Machines builds on Agent Pay, the consumer agentic program Mastercard introduced in 2025.

Where that effort defined how trusted AI agents make purchases for people, the new system targets automated, high-frequency payments between machines and services.

“Agent Pay for Machines will create the conditions for a superbloom of AI business models,” said Jorn Lambert, Mastercard’s chief product officer. He said machine payments can move at very high volumes, very small values, and extremely low latency.

How Agent Pay for Machines Works

Mastercard built the service around four functions:

Credentialing each agent,
Permissioning spending rules,
Enabling agents to transact across systems, and
Settling payments across multiple rails.

Organizations can set authorization limits that are enforced programmatically, keeping transactions within defined parameters.

Settlement spans cards, bank accounts, and stablecoins. Mastercard initially logs agent permissions onto public blockchains, including Polygon, Solana, and Base, according to the company. Identity verification ties each agent to its human or corporate owner through a feature called Verifiable Intent.

Mastercard offered one example of an entrepreneur instructing an agent to launch a flower shop’s website. The agent buys a domain, hosting, images, and checkout pages within a set budget, turning a single request into a chain of automated purchases across providers.

Crypto and Fintech Partners Back the Rollout

Initial participants include Aave Labs, Anchorage Digital, Ant International, BVNK, Checkout.com, Cloudflare, Coinbase, Getnet by Santander, Global Payments, OKX, Ripple, Solana Foundation, Stripe, and Tempo, among others.

As AI agents begin transacting on behalf of businesses, payments need more than speed. They need trust, controls, and clear rules for how value moves.

We're helping build the infrastructure for trusted agent-driven payments, with the XRP Ledger and $RLUSD helping lay the… https://t.co/VyrC5a8e2e pic.twitter.com/OyF5vQIDYZ

— Ripple (@Ripple) June 10, 2026

Several are building stablecoin settlement and agent wallet infrastructure on top of the network.

Why Mastercard Is Betting on Machine Commerce

Agentic payment volumes remain a small fraction of overall commercial flows.

Lambert predicted AI assistants will eventually handle a meaningful share of online purchases, saying “it’s just easier for consumers to do.” He was less certain about machine-to-machine payments but said too much activity is underway for some version of the market not to take shape.

Mastercard enters a crowded field. Visa, Stripe, and Google have each released agent payment tools or standards over the past year.

Coinbase backs the x402 protocol, while Stripe and Tempo developed the Machine Payments Protocol. Mastercard has not set a public launch date beyond its initial partner phase.

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In a crypto landscape saturated with aggressive marketing, fast-moving trends, and ambitious promises, it has become increasingly rare to find a platform that genuinely prioritizes security and transparency above all else. FortisX appears to be doing exactly that — and the numbers are starting to back it up.

This review takes a comprehensive look at FortisX, with a particular focus on its security infrastructure, its recent CertiK certification milestone, and what the newly launched Bug Bounty program means for users and the broader ecosystem.

What Is FortisX?

FortisX is a crypto infrastructure platform designed with long-term holders and institutional-grade reliability in mind. Rather than chasing short-term narratives or riding trend cycles, the team behind fortisx.fi has taken a fundamentally different approach: build first, then grow.

The platform positions itself as a trusted infrastructure layer for the crypto economy — offering stability, operational resilience, and a transparent framework that users can actually verify, not just take on faith. In an industry where trust is fragile and often misplaced, FortisX has been methodically constructing a foundation that speaks for itself.

Security as a Core Philosophy, Not a Marketing Slogan

What immediately distinguishes FortisX from the majority of crypto projects is its treatment of security as a foundational principle rather than an afterthought or a PR checkbox.

Many platforms launch first and audit later — if they audit at all. FortisX has inverted that model. The team has invested heavily into building a layered security architecture before scaling, demonstrating a maturity that is frankly uncommon in this space.

Here is a breakdown of the security framework FortisX has built:

✅ CertiK Smart Contract Audit — completed
✅ CertiK Skynet Monitoring — active and ongoing
✅ Cyberscope Audit — completed
✅ Bug Bounty Program — live and funded
✅ Infrastructure hardening — continuous upgrades
✅ Operational risk monitoring — active management
✅ Public transparency initiatives — ecosystem-wide

This is not a checklist assembled for appearances. Each of these elements represents a meaningful layer of protection for users and a signal of long-term thinking.

CertiK “A” Rating: What It Actually Means

Perhaps the most significant recent development at FortisX is the official “A” Security Rating assigned by CertiK, accompanied by a strong Skynet Score — placing FortisX among the top-ranked monitored crypto platforms on the CertiK Skynet dashboard.

For those unfamiliar with CertiK: it is widely considered one of the most rigorous and respected blockchain security firms in the world. A CertiK rating is not handed out generously. Their evaluation methodology examines multiple critical dimensions:

Code security — smart contract vulnerabilities, logic flaws, and exploitable patterns
Operational resilience — how well the platform holds up under stress or attack
Community trust signals — transparency, responsiveness, and user confidence indicators
Overall infrastructure quality — architecture decisions, access controls, and system integrity

Achieving an “A” grade in this evaluation framework is a meaningful milestone. It reflects not just a single audit snapshot, but months of sustained security work across every layer of the platform.

“This is more than just a score. It’s proof that FortisX is building for the long term.” — FortisX Team

That sentiment resonates. In an era when rug pulls, smart contract exploits, and security breaches continue to plague the industry, a verified CertiK “A” rating provides a credible, third-party signal that a project is taking security seriously.

The Bug Bounty Program: Crowdsourcing Security at Scale

Building on its CertiK achievements, FortisX has taken the additional step of launching an official CertiK Bug Bounty Program — a move that separates serious security-focused projects from those merely performing security theater.

Program Details:

Parameter	Details
Total Reward Pool	$50,000
Maximum Single Reward	Up to $4,000 for a critical finding
Platform	CertiK Bug Bounty
Target	Independent white-hat security researchers

The logic behind a bug bounty is straightforward but powerful: no internal security team, no matter how talented, can match the collective scrutiny of thousands of independent researchers who are financially motivated to find vulnerabilities. By allocating $50,000 specifically for this program, FortisX is essentially hiring the entire white-hat community as an extended security team.

This program complements the existing CertiK and Cyberscope audits, creating a continuous security testing cycle rather than a single point-in-time review. That distinction matters enormously in a space where new attack vectors emerge constantly and threats evolve faster than most internal teams can respond.

The responsible disclosure model also signals maturity — vulnerabilities are reported privately and addressed before becoming public, protecting users while still rewarding researchers fairly.

Why This Approach Matters for Long-Term Holders

If you are evaluating FortisX from the perspective of a long-term crypto holder or institutional participant, the security stack described above translates into several concrete benefits:

Reduced smart contract risk: Audited and continuously monitored contracts dramatically reduce the likelihood of fund loss through technical exploits — historically one of the most common sources of user losses in DeFi and crypto platforms.
Real-time threat detection: CertiK Skynet’s active monitoring means that anomalies and suspicious activity are flagged in real time, rather than discovered after damage is already done.
Third-party verification: Unlike self-reported security claims, CertiK’s “A” rating and public Skynet score are independently verifiable. Anyone can check the score. That transparency is rare and valuable.
Ongoing improvement culture: The bug bounty program signals that FortisX understands security is not a destination but a process. The willingness to invite external scrutiny continuously — and pay for it — reflects a culture of genuine improvement.

Areas to Watch

As with any platform review, a balanced assessment requires acknowledging what remains to be proven over time.

FortisX is still in a growth phase, and while its security credentials are impressive, the ultimate test will be how the platform performs under real-world conditions at scale. The ecosystem expansion the team references will need to demonstrate user traction, liquidity depth, and operational stability across market cycles.

That said, the foundation being laid is arguably more solid than most comparable projects at this stage.

Final Verdict

FortisX (fortisx.fi) represents something genuinely uncommon in crypto: a project that is doing the hard, unglamorous work of security infrastructure before chasing growth metrics. The CertiK “A” rating, combined with a fully funded Bug Bounty program and multiple independent audits, positions FortisX as one of the more credible infrastructure platforms currently operating in this space.

For long-term holders, security-conscious users, and anyone tired of trusting platforms that haven’t earned that trust, FortisX is worth watching closely.

The crypto industry is still learning — often painfully — that security cannot be an afterthought. FortisX appears to have internalized that lesson early. And in this space, that might be the most bullish signal of all.

Disclaimer:

We occasionally work with brands we trust to bring you deeply researched content. This article was developed in collaboration with a trusted partner

Key Takeaways

Raydium lost about $1.34 million on June 10 after an attacker drained five dormant AMM V3 liquidity pools on Solana that had been inactive since 2021.
The exploit relied on a fake LP token mint that slipped past validation checks in retired code; active pools, the CLMM, and newer AMM versions were untouched.
Raydium said it will cover all losses from its treasury, while security firm PeckShield traced part of the stolen crypto through KuCoin and into Tornado Cash.

Raydium, one of Solana’s largest decentralized exchanges, lost roughly $1.34 million on June 10 after an attacker exploited a flaw in retired code, draining five liquidity pools that had been inactive since 2021.

The pools belonged to Raydium’s legacy automated market maker, or AMM V3, program, which the protocol phased out after the collapse of the Serum onchain order book. The contracts remained live on Solana even though they were no longer reachable through Raydium’s official interface.

Raydium is aware of an exploit involving unauthorized removal of liquidity from its legacy AMM V3 program which was previously phased out in 2021.

No current users of Raydium are affected by this exploit or would have been able to interact with these pools through the UI since…

— Infra | Raydium (@0xINFRA) June 10, 2026

“No current users of Raydium are affected by this exploit,” pseudonymous contributor 0xInfra posted on X, adding that the protocol’s software development kit and front end no longer support interactions with the legacy pools.

How the Raydium Exploit Worked

The attack hinged on the old program’s weak validation of the liquidity provider’s mint address. Because the code did not confirm that the LP token was legitimate, the attacker created a fake mint, presented it as the real LP token and bypassed the proportion checks that govern withdrawals.

Raydium said its current mainnet programs avoid the bug because they rely on a virtual supply mechanism and verify LP mints alongside other account data. The exchange added that its live programs are now undergoing a separate security review.

Which Pools and Assets Were Drained

The five affected pools were:

Sollet USDT-RAY
Sollet ETH-RAY
SRM-RAY
USDC-RAY
RAY-SOL

Notably, all pools were tied to the Serum era on Solana.

The attacker removed about 150,177 RAY, 5,603 SOL, and 893,700 USDC, according to 0xInfra. In dollar terms, that broke down to roughly $900,000 in USDC, about $357,000 in SOL, and around $86,000 in RAY. The exploiter’s Solana address ends in Bq33QVk.

Raydium’s concentrated liquidity pools and newer AMM versions held no exposure, which kept the loss near $1.34 million. RAY traded up more than 2% on the day, reflecting limited market spillover.

Onchain Sleuths Trace the Stolen Funds

PeckShield and onchain investigator Specter said the attacker was initially funded through KuCoin, then bridged the proceeds from Solana to Ethereum.

From there, the wallet deposited 810 ETH into Tornado Cash and sent 7 ETH to FixedFloat, a pattern consistent with laundering through a mixer.

Attackers deposited 810 ETH into Tornado Cash. | Source: @hackapreneur

Raydium Pledges Treasury Refund

Raydium said it will fully reimburse anyone who still holds funds in the deprecated pools, covering the shortfall from its treasury rather than passing losses to active users.

NEWS: Raydium suffered a $1.34M exploit affecting deprecated liquidity pools.

The protocol said losses will be fully covered by its treasury, with no impact on current users. pic.twitter.com/jtHyAIgj3n

— CoinGecko (@coingecko) June 11, 2026

The incident adds to a steady run of DeFi exploits in 2026, many of them targeting dormant or unaudited code rather than flagship contracts. For Raydium, the damage was contained, but the episode shows that retired smart contracts left running onchain can stay dangerous years after a team moves on.

Other Major DeFi Exploits of 2026

Raydium’s loss is small next to a brutal year for decentralized finance. DeFi protocols have lost more than $840 million across 50 or more incidents in the first five months of 2026, a sharp rise from prior years.

Kelp DAO ranks as the largest, losing about $293 million on April 19 when an attacker drained its LayerZero-based rsETH bridge.
Drift Protocol, a Solana DEX, lost roughly $285 million on April 1 after a group linked to North Korea spent six months socially engineering its way in, then used a fake asset as collateral to pull out real funds.
Step Finance, another Solana project, lost $27.3 million in January when a compromised executive device exposed private keys.

The pattern has shifted. Chainalysis attributes about 76% of 2026 hack losses to state-backed actors tied to the Lazarus Group, and compromised accounts now drive more than half of DeFi attacks by count, overtaking pure smart contract bugs.

How Users Can Protect Themselves

Most 2026 losses trace back to a handful of avoidable mistakes, and a few habits go a long way toward keeping funds safe.

Revoke unused token approvals using tools like Revoke.cash, and grant minimal permissions rather than unlimited ones.
Favor protocols with recent third-party audits, active security teams, and bug bounty programs.
Hold long-term assets in a hardware wallet and keep only working balances in connected apps.
Watch official channels for pause events or warnings, and move funds quickly when one appears.

None of these steps guarantees safety, but together they shrink the attack surface that drained Raydium’s old pools and far larger protocols this year.

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TORONTO, ON – Canada Crypto Week returns July 20–26, 2026, for its sixth year, bringing together dozens of events across Canada focused on cryptocurrency, digital assets, and artificial intelligence. The week connects entrepreneurs, builders, investors, and institutions through a diverse lineup of events taking place across the country.

The flagship event of Canada Crypto Week is Blockchain Futurist Conference, Canada’s largest Web3 and AI event. Taking place July 21–22 at Rebel Entertainment Complex and Cabana Pool Bar in Toronto, the conference attracts thousands of attendees and serves as the hub for many of the week’s featured events and experiences.

Canada Crypto Week kicks off with Web3TO Toronto Conference 2026. Taking place on July 20, 2026, the event brings together the Web3 community for a full day of insights on the future of the industry.

Returning to Canada Crypto Week, Cayman Finance will host its annual Rum Bar Cayman Experience in the VIP Cabana Area on July 21 and 22. The activation gives VIP attendees an opportunity to experience Cayman hospitality, connect with companies from the Cayman Islands, and learn more about doing business in one of the world’s leading financial jurisdictions.

A key addition to this year’s conference is the Compliance Breakfast on July 22, 2026. Presented by VerifyVASP, Inca Digital, XReg Consulting, Crystal Intelligence, and Cloudburst Technologies, the invite-only event brings together regulators, policymakers, compliance leaders, and industry executives for meaningful discussions on digital assets, AI, regulation, and the future of innovation.

Another popular event is Agentic Day presented by Hello Agentic on July 21, 2026. The dedicated afternoon program explores the future of AI agents and autonomous intelligence, bringing together innovators building the next generation of agentic AI.

This year’s lineup includes:

Agentic Day presented by Hello Agentic
Cayman Finance Rum Bar Experience
Compliance Breakfast by VerifyVASP, Inca Digital, XReg Consulting, Crystal Intelligence, & Cloudburst
Invest Hong Kong Workshop: The Global Hub for Digital Assets
Pudgy Penguins Vibes Card Game Event
SheFi Morning Social at ETHWomen
House of Intelligence: Where Institutions Meet Web3 by House of ZK
AWIC Facilitated Networking presented by the Association for Women in Cryptocurrency
Whitepaper Reading Sessions by Whitepaper Reading Club
Book Signings with Amanda Wick, Audrey Nesbitt, and Annelise Osborne
ETHToronto presented by Autheo
The 5th Annual ETHWomen
Bored Ape Meetup
Doginal Dogs VibeZone
Solana VibeStation

Canada Crypto Week is made possible through the support of sponsors, community organizations, and media partners from across the industry. Stablecorp and QCAD joins as a leading sponsor as the Official Stablecoin Partner of Canada Crypto Week, supporting the growth and adoption of digital assets in Canada. CryptoNomads supports Canada Crypto Week as a sponsor, helping connect global Web3 professionals and digital nomads through its worldwide network. CCN (Crypto Citizens Network) will be conducting live interviews and capturing insights from some of the leading voices across Web3 during the week.

“Canada Crypto Week is where Canada’s Web3, digital asset, and AI communities come together to connect, collaborate, and build the future,” said Tracy Leparulo, Founder of Canada Crypto Week.

To view the full schedule of events, register for activities, or submit your own event, visit CanadaCryptoWeek.com

For additional event listings and registrations, visit luma.com/canadacryptoweek.

About Canada Crypto Week

Canada Crypto Week is Canada’s largest week-long celebration of cryptocurrency, blockchain, Web3, digital assets, and artificial intelligence. Now in its sixth year, the initiative brings together more than 50 independent events, conferences, meetups, networking experiences, educational sessions, and community gatherings designed to connect and grow Canada’s innovation ecosystem.

Key Takeaways

Financial advisers remain bullish on crypto, but not Bitcoin specifically.
Stablecoins and tokenization are now the biggest areas of interest.
The next bull market could be driven by new investors with different interests.

Financial advisers remain interested in crypto despite the recent market downturn, but their attention has increasingly shifted away from Bitcoin, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.

The findings come as crypto markets search for the next catalyst after a period of Bitcoin price weakness that has left investors debating what could drive the industry’s next major growth cycle.

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What Bitwise’s CIO Learned From 40 Financial Advisers

In a June 10 report, Hougan said he conducted 8 sales calls with financial advisers in a single day, the most he has completed in a single day since joining Bitwise 8 years ago.

Because many meetings involved advisory teams, he spoke with more than 40 advisers in total.

His first takeaway was that professional investors have not lost interest in crypto despite recent market volatility.

“The fact that they remain interested despite the pullback is good news,” Hougan said.

However, advisers appeared far more interested in the practical applications of blockchain technology than in Bitcoin itself.

“Their eyes are on stablecoins and tokenization more than Bitcoin,” Hougan wrote.

According to Hougan, discussions repeatedly shifted toward blockchain-based payment systems and other real-world applications that could reshape traditional financial markets.

“It was pretty hard to engage with advisors on Bitcoin this week,” he said.

“In call after call, they expressed much more curiosity over the real-world applications of crypto that are quickly reshaping everything from capital markets to global payments.”

Hougan attributed the shift partly to changing market narratives and how “stablecoins and tokenization have taken center stage.”

He noted that investors are increasingly hearing discussions from BlackRock CEO Larry Fink and Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon about the growth of tokenization.

“Investors want to be a part of that,” Hougan said.

What Fuels The Next Bull Market and Bitcoin Price Surge?

While Bitcoin has historically led crypto recoveries, Hougan believes a different set of catalysts could drive the next bull market.

“Throughout crypto’s history, new bull market cycles have relied on a combination of new product breakthroughs and new types of investors,” he wrote.

Hougan pointed to Ethereum’s emergence after the 2014 downturn and the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds following the 2022 collapse of FTX.

“The uptake of new products is an obvious potential catalyst, with stablecoins, tokenization, perpetual futures, and other real-world applications of crypto starting to take off,” Hougan said.

But technological innovation alone may not be enough.

“For real escape velocity, we need mass adoption by a new investor class,” he wrote.

Adding: “The best hope in my view is financial advisors and institutional investors.”

Hougan suggested that if advisers become a significant source of new capital in the next cycle, investments could flow first into blockchain networks rather than directly into Bitcoin.

Assets discussed during his adviser meetings included Ethereum, Solana, Chainlink, Avalanche, and Canton.

The broader takeaway, Hougan said, is that financial advisers now have a far more sophisticated understanding of crypto than they did only a few years ago.

“It might also be the thing that leads us into the next bull market,” he said.

Matt Hougan’s $1M Bitcoin Price Call

In March, Hougan argued Bitcoin’s price could eventually reach $1 million per coin if it captures a larger share of the global store-of-value market.

In a separate investor memo, the Bitwise executive said Bitcoin should primarily be viewed as a digital store-of-value asset competing with gold rather than as a payment network.

According to Bitwise estimates, the global store-of-value market is currently worth nearly $38 trillion, consisting of approximately $36 trillion in gold and about $1.4 trillion in Bitcoin.

At present, Bitcoin accounts for less than 4% of the total market.

Currently, Bitcoin would need to capture more than half of the global store-of-value market to reach $1 million per coin — a scenario Hougan acknowledged would be challenging.

However, he argued that many investors overlook the possibility that the market itself could expand significantly over time.

Around the launch of the first US gold exchange-traded fund in 2004, the total gold market was valued at roughly $2.5 trillion.

That figure has since grown to nearly $40 trillion, representing an annualized growth rate of approximately 13%.

If the broader store-of-value market continues expanding at a similar pace, Hougan estimated it could reach roughly $121 trillion within the next decade.

Under that scenario, Bitcoin would only need to capture about 17% of the market to reach a valuation of $1 million per coin.

Top Picks for Bitcoin

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin’s 27.7% drop in 2026 closely mirrors the post-halving bear market pattern seen in previous cycles.
Historical data shows Bitcoin peaks roughly 12–18 months after each halving before entering a prolonged correction.
If the cycle repeats, Bitcoin could reach a market bottom around October 2026, though ETF adoption may alter the pattern.

Bitcoin’s 2026 looks like a disaster. The price has fallen 27.7% since January, sliding from $87,520 to around $63,255, and it now sits 49% below the record high set last October. Headlines call it a crash, but the data calls it a schedule.

Strip the panic away, and the decline maps almost perfectly onto a rhythm Bitcoin has repeated after every one of its halvings, the roughly four-year supply cuts that have anchored its boom and bust cycles since 2012. Seen through that lens, the 2026 selloff is not a shock. It is the bear phase of a clockwork cycle, arriving close to on time.

Bitcoin’s Halving Cycle Continues to Follow a Predictable Pattern

The evidence starts with timing. Bitcoin’s mining reward halves about every 4 years, and each halving has been followed by a blow-off top about a year later. Working only from daily prices, the two halvings inside the modern record line up with uncanny precision.

The May 2020 halving gave way to a cycle peak on November 9, 2021, exactly 18.0 months later, at $67,617. The April 2024 halving led to a record of $124,774 on October 7, 2025, just 17.6 months later. Two supply cuts, two peaks, spaced within two weeks of each other.

Stretch back further, and the rhythm holds.

The 2016 halving preceded the December 2017 top by about 17.3 months, and the first halving in 2012 led to a peak roughly 12 months on. Four cycles, four peaks, each landing between 12 and 18 months after its supply cut. That is not the signature of a market lurching at random, but it is closer to a metronome.

Two Bitcoin cycles aligned by halving, both topped near month 18. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Where Bitcoin Sits in the Cycle Now

Overlay the last two cycles on a single axis, indexed to the day of each halving, and the shape is almost the same drawing twice. Both climb steadily, accelerate into a peak around month 18, then roll over into a long decline.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin sits 25.6 months past the April 2024 halving and 8 months past the October peak. On the aligned chart, that places the current cycle firmly in the post-peak downslope, exactly where the 2020 cycle was bleeding through the back half of 2022.

In other words, the moment that feels like a market breaking down is, on this map, the market doing precisely what it did last time at the same point on the calendar.

2026 Decline Fits the Template

Zoom into this year and the fit gets sharper. Bitcoin opened 2026 near $87,520, spiked to its yearly high of $97,008 on January 15, then never saw that level again. The damage came in two waves. February collapsed 21.7%, including a single 14.1% drop.

A spring rally lifted prices 13.6% in April but stalled near $82,000, fully 15% below the January high. June then delivered the second leg down, off 14.2%, dragging Bitcoin to a year low of $60,862. The result is 84 down days against 74 up days and roughly $24,266 erased from every coin.

Bitcoin in 2026, from $97K in January to the June lows. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Set against history, the year stands out for the wrong reasons. Measured from January 1 to June 8, Bitcoin’s 27.7% loss is its second-worst first half on record, beaten only by the 2022 collapse. In the modern dataset, every other year was positive over the same window, several of them sharply so.

Yet that comparison is the point. The only prior year that looked this grim, 2022, was itself the post-peak phase of the previous halving cycle. History is not just rhyming. It is repeating the same verse.

Bitcoin first half return by year, 2020 to 2026. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python) — Bitcoin first-half returns by year, 2020 to 2026. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

What the Calendar Points to Next

If the cycle is running to form, the obvious question is: when will the pain end? Here, the last cycle offers a marker:

Bitcoin peaked on November 10, 2021, and bottomed exactly 365 days later, in November 2022.
Apply the same peak-to-trough interval to the October 7, 2025, high, and the model points to a cycle low arriving around October 2026, roughly 4 months from now.

That is a projection drawn from a pattern, not a forecast, and it should be read as a rough signpost rather than a date to trade around.

What it does suggest is that the worst of the calendar-driven weakness may be a matter of months rather than years, a sharply different message from the panic in the headlines.

Why Bitcoin’s Historical Cycle Pattern Could Still Break

No cycle repeats perfectly, and Bitcoin’s historical pattern comes with important caveats. The strongest alignment in the data relies on just two fully documented halving cycles, while earlier cycles occurred before reliable daily price records were widely available. Four observations can reveal a trend, but they are far from enough to guarantee future outcomes.

There are also reasons to believe this cycle could unfold differently.

The approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 introduced a new wave of institutional capital, bringing in larger, potentially more patient investors. Many analysts argue that this shift could reduce the sharp boom-and-bust dynamics that characterized earlier, retail-driven cycles.

Signs of that change are already visible. Bitcoin’s volatility has declined across successive cycles, and bear-market drawdowns have become less severe. The current decline of roughly 49% is significant, but far smaller than the 77% collapse seen during the 2022 bear market.

As Bitcoin matures, the influence of the four-year halving cycle may gradually weaken. For now, however, the 2026 downturn continues to track the historical pattern remarkably closely.

Methodology

This analysis uses daily Bitcoin closing prices in US dollars from the CoinGecko Pro API, covering January 1, 2020 through June 8, 2026, about 2,351 observations. Halving dates are deterministic and publicly recorded. Cycle peaks for the 2020 and 2024 halvings were identified as the maximum closing price in the 24 months following each halving, and the interval was measured in calendar months.

The peak to trough interval uses the November 2021 high and its lowest subsequent close. Pre 2020 halving and peak dates are included as external historical reference and should be independently verified before citation. Returns are simple percentage changes between closes, and the cycle overlay rebases each path to 100 on its halving day. Patterns drawn from a small number of cycles are descriptive, not predictive, and none of the above is investment advice.

Key Takeaways

CFTC moves to formalize prediction market oversight.
Rule could reshape the battle between prediction markets and sportsbooks.
Federal versus state authority remains unresolved.

A proposal by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to establish a framework for reviewing prediction market contracts is setting the stage for a broader battle with big betting.

The proposal, released Tuesday under CFTC Chairman Mike Selig, would update the agency’s decades-old “Special Rule” governing event contracts. The aim is to establish clearer standards for determining when certain markets should be blocked.

While the proposal is aimed at prediction markets, the outcome could ultimately help determine whether federally regulated event-contract platforms emerge as a nationwide alternative to the state-by-state sports betting system dominated by operators such as DraftKings and FanDuel.

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CFTC Seeks Clearer Rules For Event Contracts

Under the proposal, the CFTC would create a structured framework for evaluating contracts tied to events involving activities identified in the Commodity Exchange Act — including gaming, war, terrorism, and assassination.

The agency stopped short of proposing blanket prohibitions on specific categories of contracts.

Instead, regulators would evaluate contracts against a set of factors designed to determine whether they are consistent with the public interest.

In an opinion piece, Selig argued that existing regulations have not kept pace with the growth of prediction markets.

“Prediction markets have grown dramatically in recent years,” Selig wrote.

Adding: “The regulatory framework governing these markets has remained shrouded in ambiguity.”

The proposal broadly interprets categories such as war, terrorism, and assassination, reflecting concerns that participants with privileged information could profit from such markets.

The agency also identified several gaming-related contract categories that could face heightened scrutiny — including markets tied to player injuries and casino-style games of chance.

Selig Pitches ‘Rules of the Road’

In a post on X, Selig described the proposal as an effort to provide “transparent rules of the road to identify the contracts Congress directed it to scrutinize.”

“…while letting legitimate markets move forward pursuant to the public interest.”

I sincerely appreciate the time that market participants, federal and state officials, tribal leaders, and the public more broadly put into the comments and welcome their continued feedback as we take this critical next step.

Rest assured, this will not be the last prediction…

— Mike Selig (@ChairmanSelig) June 10, 2026

The chairman also warned that excessive regulatory uncertainty could push activity toward offshore venues operating outside US supervision.

“The challenge,” Selig wrote in his opinion piece, “is that even with safeguards and clearer standards, many event contracts that could be contrary to the public interest may continue to be offered by offshore platforms that operate outside the CFTC’s regulatory remit.”

Potential Collision With Sports Betting Industry

The proposal could have significant implications for the US sports betting industry, which has developed under a state-by-state licensing model since the Supreme Court struck down the federal ban on sports wagering in 2018.

Major operators including DraftKings and FanDuel have spent years gaining licenses across dozens of states while complying with local tax regimes and regulatory requirements.

Prediction market operators argue that event contracts fall under federal commodities law rather than state gambling laws, allowing them to operate under CFTC oversight.

That distinction has become increasingly contentious as platforms such as Kalshi have expanded sports-related offerings.

Attorneys at the law firm Pryor Cashman said the proposal could strengthen arguments that certain prediction market products fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal commodities laws.

“The central question is whether these contracts are fundamentally financial instruments or gambling products,” Pryor Cashman wrote in a report.

Pryor Cashman attorneys noted that it may play a decisive role in determining the boundaries between federal regulation and state gaming laws.

“The proposal does not eliminate the legal questions,” it said.

“What it does is provide a more structured framework that courts, regulators and market participants can evaluate as these disputes continue to develop.”

Several states have argued that sports focused event contracts closely resemble traditional wagering products and should therefore be subject to state gaming oversight.

Prediction market operators maintain that their contracts function as derivatives regulated under the Commodity Exchange Act.

Crypto Platforms Watch Closely

The rulemaking is also being closely monitored by crypto-based prediction market operators.

Many forecasting platforms have historically operated offshore because of regulatory uncertainty in the US.

Supporters of the proposal argue that a clearer federal framework could create a pathway for some prediction-market activity to migrate into regulated US venues.

However, some say restrictions on certain event categories could leave demand for those products concentrated on offshore platforms.

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Motley Fool Analyst Sees XRP Price Falling to $0.36 Over Five Years

Anthony Di Pizio, an analyst at The Motley Fool, argued that XRP could face substantial downside over the next five years.

Di Pizio noted that XRP has historically experienced severe boom-and-bust cycles.

Following its 2018 record high, the token lost more than 90% of its value and remained below $1 for much of the following seven years.

If a similar decline were to occur from XRP’s 2025 peak of $3.65, the token could fall to approximately $0.36 and potentially remain around that level over the coming years, he said.

The analyst noted that while Ripple Payments allows financial institutions to settle cross-border transactions more efficiently, banks are not required to use XRP.

“…using XRP isn’t mandatory, and this is where the bullish thesis is falling apart,” Di Pizio said.

He added that if the “global banking system adopted the network,” it still “wouldn’t necessarily result in upside for XRP.”

The analyst also highlighted the rapid growth of stablecoins as a competitive threat.

Ripple’s own dollar-pegged stablecoin, RLUSD, launched in 2024, offers lower volatility and regulatory features that may make it more attractive to financial institutions than XRP.

Glassnode Data Signals Deep Capitulation Among XRP Holders

Separate data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode suggests investor sentiment has deteriorated sharply since XRP’s 2025 rally.

Glassnode reported that the 90-day simple moving average of XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to 0.38.

The metric measures the amount of profit realized on-chain relative to losses.

The 90D-SMA of XRP's Realized Profit to Loss Ratio has fallen to 0.38. For every dollar of loss being realized in the market, only 38 cents of profit is being taken.
At the 2025 peak, this ratio reached 50, meaning profit-takers were overwhelming loss-sellers by a factor of 50x.… https://t.co/YvCyY5yifo pic.twitter.com/riPTkbdqfl

— glassnode (@glassnode) June 9, 2026

At current levels, investors are realizing only $0.38 in profits for every $1 of losses.

This marks a sharp reversal from conditions seen during XRP’s 2025 peak, when the ratio climbed to 50.

At that time, profit-taking activity outweighed loss realization by a factor of 50, reflecting massively bullish sentiment.

The decline below 1 shows how most investors are moving XRP at a loss.

XRP Price Remains Fragile Despite Recovery Attempt

From a technical perspective, XRP remains under pressure despite recovering modestly from recent lows.

At the time of reporting, XRP was trading at $1.11, down over 50% from a year earlier.

However, some momentum indicators have improved in the short term, suggesting selling pressure may be easing.

CCN analysis noted that the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator has begun to recover toward neutral territory.

However, the broader trend remains negative, with it trading far below its 100-day EMA around $1.41.

Analysts are closely monitoring the $1.05-$1.09 range, which has emerged as a key support zone during the current correction.

A sustained move above those levels could strengthen the case for a broader recovery and potentially open the door toward the 200-day EMA near $1.63.

Conversely, a failure to overcome resistance could trigger another retest of support near $1.05, with a breakdown below that level potentially sending the price toward $0.90.

Top Picks for XRP

Key Takeaways

Onchain gambling remained resilient despite the crypto downturn, generating $14 billion in Q1 2026, just below its record $15 billion in Q4 2025.
The sector reached $51 billion in total volume during 2025, making it one of the largest and fastest-growing segments in crypto.
High Rollers remain the dominant force, representing just 6% of gambling wallets but accounting for nearly 92% of personal-wallet gambling volume.

Despite a prolonged cryptocurrency market correction that weighed on trading activity across much of the digital asset industry, onchain gambling continued its rapid ascent, generating $14 billion in volume during the first quarter of 2026, according to new research from blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs.

The sector has emerged as one of crypto’s fastest-growing segments, sustaining elevated activity levels even as broader markets cooled. TRM found that quarterly gambling volume reached a record $15 billion in Q4 2025 before remaining near those highs in Q1 2026.

While prediction markets such as Polymarket captured headlines throughout 2025 and early 2026, onchain gambling quietly expanded into a $51 billion annual industry.

The report highlights how gambling platforms maintained momentum through multiple market cycles, fueled less by speculative trading and more by a growing base of repeat users.

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User Retention, Not New Entrants, Drives Growth

Unlike many crypto sectors that depend heavily on new users entering the market during bull runs, onchain gambling’s expansion is increasingly being driven by returning participants.

TRM’s analysis shows that new wallet inflows peaked in 2022 and have since fallen by roughly 54%. However, wallets that had previously interacted with gambling platforms grew fourfold over the same period.

By Q1 2026, the ratio of new users to returning users had narrowed significantly, from 9:1 in early 2022 to just 1.4:1.

The resilience of onchain gambling, hitting $14B this quarter despite a broader crypto downturn, is a fascinating signal. It points to a unique behavioral dynamic within the crypto market – a segment of users seemingly less swayed by macro volatility and more driven by instant…

— Cyclo Trading System (@cyclosoluctions) June 11, 2026

The data suggests that gamblers are not only returning more frequently but are also spending more over time. During the 2022 bear market, existing users reduced average bet sizes but maintained consistent activity.

As market conditions improved, average wagers increased, helping drive overall volume growth.

Major sporting events have also become important catalysts for engagement.

TRM found that activity spikes around events such as the Super Bowl, March Madness, and the FIFA World Cup, with dormant wallets reactivating temporarily to place bets before returning to inactivity.

The report identifies five key user groups, ranging from casual bettors and event-driven participants to “Daily Grinders” and high-value “High Rollers.”

Although High Rollers represent only around 6% of gambling wallets, they account for nearly 92% of personal-wallet gambling volume since 2022.

Stablecoins and Low-Cost Networks Fuel Expansion

Infrastructure improvements have played a major role in the sector’s resilience.

Stablecoins now account for approximately 70% of all onchain gambling volume, with USDT and USDC dominating activity.

On the TRON blockchain, which has become the leading network for crypto gambling, stablecoins represent about 94% of gambling transactions.

TRON’s popularity stems from its low transaction costs, fast settlement times, and deep USDT liquidity. Annual gambling inflows on the network reached $19.3 billion in 2025, giving it roughly 38% of the total market share.

Polygon has also gained significant traction, posting its strongest quarter on record in Q1 2026 and approaching TRON’s scale for the first time.

Analysts attribute Polygon’s growth to its low-cost infrastructure and strong stablecoin ecosystem, which have attracted both casino-style gambling platforms and hybrid wagering products.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s role in the sector has diminished sharply. Once accounting for approximately 36% of gambling volume in 2022, Bitcoin accounted for only around 2% by 2025 as users migrated to faster, cheaper blockchain networks.

Regulatory and Criminal Risks Remain

As onchain gambling reaches new heights, regulators and compliance teams face growing challenges.

TRM identified three primary illicit risks associated with the sector: gambling platforms being used as money laundering infrastructure, fraudulent platforms masquerading as legitimate casinos, and cyberattacks targeting gambling operators.

The report highlights several cases involving criminal organizations and sanctioned entities allegedly using gambling platforms to obscure the origins of illicit funds.

TRM Labs also pointed to major scams such as the $33 million ZKasino exit scam and the $41 million theft from Stake.com attributed to North Korea-linked Lazarus Group hackers.

Despite these concerns, TRM argues that the sector’s ability to grow through both bull and bear markets demonstrates a level of structural demand that increasingly operates independently of crypto price movements.

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CryptoQuant Sees Demand Conditions Still Weak

CryptoQuant said Bitcoin’s realized price — currently around $53,600 — represents a potential valuation bottom, though the firm cautioned that it should not be interpreted as a confirmed cycle low.

“Bitcoin’s current realized price of approximately $53.6K serves as a valuation bottom candidate,” CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno said in a market update.

The assessment comes as Bitcoin has suffered its third drawdown of more than 25% during the current downturn.

Despite identifying a possible valuation floor, CryptoQuant said market demand remains “deeply unfavorable.”

The firm reported that total Bitcoin demand fell by roughly 652,000 BTC over the past week, while 30-day growth in spot Bitcoin ETF demand dropped to negative 74,000 BTC.

Realized losses among holders over the previous 30 days have also increased.

CryptoQuant noted that previous cycle bottoms were generally accompanied by stronger signs of renewed demand — but these conditions have not yet fully materialized.

The DeFi Report: Bitcoin’s Price Has Entered a ‘Buy Zone’

Analysts at The DeFi Report argue that Bitcoin has entered a favorable accumulation range, despite not yet seeing a definitive bottom.

“We’re now the balls in their court,” said Michael Nadeau, lead analyst at The DeFi Report, referring to long-term investors who remained patient during the downturn.

Adding: “They have the ability to buy up coins at really depressed levels.”

The firm compared current market conditions to late-stage bear-market periods seen in 2018 and 2022.

“I think generally speaking, we’re in the kind of phase of the market where you can be comfortable with a longer-term time horizon as an investor,” Nadeau said.

Capitulation Signs Emerging as Sellers Exhaust

The DeFi Report also cited evidence that the latest decline may represent another phase of capitulation selling.

Bitcoin fell to roughly $58,900 earlier this month amid broader market weakness, concerns surrounding Strategy’s capital structure, and deteriorating investor sentiment. The decline pushed short-term momentum indicators to some of their weakest readings on record.

“We just went through basically the third phase of fear-based forced selling of this bear market,” Nadeau said.

The firm observed that many investors who bought near cycle highs have already exited their positions, while remaining holders are increasingly long-term investors willing to withstand volatility.

“It tends to not resolve with demand overwhelming supply,” Nadeau said of bear-market bottoms.

“It sort of resolves on the sellers being exhausted.”

Analysts Favor Dollar-Cost Averaging

While warning that Bitcoin could still revisit the low-$50,000 range if conditions worsen, The DeFi Report said the risk-reward profile has become increasingly attractive.

Nadeau compared current prices near $60,000 to opportunities investors faced when Bitcoin traded around $20,000 during the 2022 bear market.

“I think we’re in the equivalent of $20,000 when bitcoin’s trading around $60,000,” he said.

Adding: “I kind of want to just be buying when we are underneath the prior cycle high.”

Some Analysts See Deeper Bitcoin Price Downside

Not all market observers agree that Bitcoin’s realized price near $53,600 represents the likely bottom for the current cycle.

While CryptoQuant identified the level as a potential “valuation bottom candidate,” other analysts argue Bitcoin has historically needed to fall below its realized price before a true bear-market low is established.

Jason Williams, host of the “Going Parabolic” podcast, pointed to historical data showing Bitcoin fell roughly 58% below realized price in 2011, 49% below in 2015, 47% below in 2018, and 34% below during the 2022 bear market.

Williams argued that the size of those drawdowns has steadily decreased across cycles.

A long post on why the bottom for Bitcoin is not in

Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders

Currently it is $53.6k

Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price

2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the… pic.twitter.com/Av3QAGtLtF

— Jason Ai. Williams (@GoingParabolic) June 9, 2026

Applying that trend to the current market would imply a cycle low roughly 17% below Bitcoin’s realized price, or about $44,488.

“Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price,” Williams wrote.

Investor Gary Cardone echoed the cautionary outlook, arguing that Bitcoin still faces a demand problem despite the recent selloff.

“Bitcoin needs buyers. Without buyers, sellers will get pushy,” Cardone wrote on X.

During a recent Yahoo Finance appearance, he said Bitcoin could potentially revisit levels as low as $38,000 if selling intensifies.

Bitcoin Price Today

At the time of reporting, Bitcoin was trading at around $62,851.

According to CoinMarketCap analysis, the rally came following the latest US inflation data, which showed softer-than-expected core price pressures.

CoinMarketCap analysis also pointed to oversold technical conditions as a contributing factor.

Bitcoin’s 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently fell into deeply oversold territory, a signal that usually precedes short-term rebounds.

However, analysts noted that trading volumes remained relatively weak, suggesting the move most likely represents a corrective rally rather than a full-blown reversal.

Looking ahead, CoinMarketCap said Bitcoin’s near-term direction will likely depend on whether it can maintain support above $62,000.

Top Picks for Bitcoin

The center of gravity in Web3 has shifted. The defining contest is no longer which token launches loudest or which chain produces the most dramatic weekend rally. It is who can hire, organize, and retain the people capable of building infrastructure that actually works: systems that can scale, interoperate, stay secure, satisfy regulators, and still feel usable to people who may never know they are touching a blockchain.

Startale Group sits directly inside that contest. The Web3 infrastructure company, whose team is drawn from more than 20 countries, is building across consumer applications, blockchain networks, tokenized finance, and stablecoins. Its most important test may be JPYSC, the yen-denominated stablecoin being developed with SBI Holdings as a regulated onchain settlement instrument for Japan’s financial system.

That is why the talent question matters. Building a stablecoin like JPYSC is not the same as launching a token. A token can be issued by a small team chasing liquidity and narrative. A regulated stablecoin has to survive legal scrutiny, technical attacks, operational stress, institutional due diligence, and user experience problems all at once. The talent required for that kind of product is scarce, globally distributed, and increasingly being chased by crypto companies, AI labs, fintech firms, banks, exchanges, and infrastructure providers at the same time.

For years, stablecoins were treated mainly as trading instruments, useful for moving between venues and escaping volatility. The next phase is different. Stablecoins are becoming a settlement infrastructure. That means the companies building them need more than protocol engineers. They need people who understand payment law, custody, banking relationships, reserve structures, smart-contract security, compliance workflows, product design, and the expectations of institutions that cannot afford to treat infrastructure as an experiment.

JPYSC points toward that new model. Designed as a trust-bank-backed stablecoin issued by Shinsei Trust & Banking under Japan’s regulatory framework, with SBI VC Trade serving as distribution partner and Startale leading technical development, it is not simply another digital asset. It is an attempt to turn the yen into a regulated onchain settlement instrument that financial institutions, developers, and users can interact with inside a more coherent Web3 stack.

The shortage of serious Web3 infrastructure talent has become one of the industry’s most important constraints. The most valuable people in the market are not simply Solidity developers or token economists. They are distributed-systems engineers who can think about uptime and throughput, cryptographers who can evaluate security assumptions, smart-contract auditors who can identify hidden vulnerabilities, compliance specialists who understand regulated finance, and product teams who can make complex systems feel ordinary.

This scarcity is reshaping how serious builders operate. Startale’s global team is less a diversity statistic than a practical necessity. The skills needed to build a vertically integrated Web3 stack do not cluster in one city, and companies pretending otherwise are quietly putting themselves at a disadvantage.

JPYSC makes that point especially clear. A yen stablecoin meant to operate within Japan’s regulated financial system cannot be built by protocol talent alone. It requires coordination between blockchain infrastructure, trust-bank issuance, exchange distribution, reserve design, legal architecture, compliance processes, wallet compatibility, and user access. Each of those areas has its own specialists. The hard part is not only hiring them, but getting them to work together well enough that the final product feels like one piece of infrastructure rather than a patchwork of separate systems.

Japan’s Web3 advantage is not speed in the Silicon Valley sense. It is coordination. The country has spent years building a clearer framework around digital assets, stablecoins, and custody. That regulatory environment has not always moved quickly, but it has given serious builders something valuable: a path to operate inside the system rather than around it.

A yen stablecoin cannot become meaningful institutional infrastructure if it is treated as an unregulated workaround. Its value comes from the opposite posture. JPYSC is compelling because it is designed to sit within Japan’s regulated financial perimeter, connecting onchain settlement with entities and structures that institutions already understand.

That gives Japan a different role in the stablecoin market. The global stablecoin economy has been dominated by dollars, and that is unlikely to change overnight. But the next phase of onchain finance will need credible local-currency settlement instruments as well. If tokenized securities, consumer applications, cross-border payments, and real-world asset markets are going to expand, they cannot rely only on generic dollar liquidity. They will need regulated instruments tied to major currencies, local banking systems, and trusted issuers.

This is where Startale’s broader stack matters. Its work runs from Soneium, the Ethereum Layer 2 developed through Sony Block Solutions Labs, through Strium, the tokenized-finance infrastructure developed with SBI, to stablecoins like JPYSC. That kind of setup cannot be staffed by protocol engineers alone. It requires security, compliance, product, business-development, design, custody, and interoperability expertise working together closely enough to produce infrastructure that institutions and ordinary users can actually use.

Startale App gives users and developers a front door into the Startale and Soneium ecosystem, making onchain applications easier to discover and use without forcing people to think like blockchain specialists. But the deeper infrastructure story is JPYSC: the app may shape how users enter the ecosystem, while the stablecoin shapes how value can move through it.

That makes talent retention as important as talent acquisition. Infrastructure cannot be built by teams that churn every cycle. The people who understand the system deeply have to stay long enough to improve it, audit it, expand it, and make it reliable under real usage. In the speculative era, companies could rent attention. In the infrastructure era, they have to compound knowledge.

Startale’s $63 million Series A, anchored by Sony Innovation Fund and SBI Group, fits that pattern. The round was not just capital for expansion. It was strategic backing from the same corporate ecosystems around which Startale is building. Sony brings consumer and entertainment gravity through Soneium. SBI brings regulated financial distribution and institutional credibility. For JPYSC, that second piece is especially important because a stablecoin meant to serve yen settlement needs more than software. It needs trust.

The infrastructure era will not be won by the companies with the loudest launches. It will be won by the companies that can find the people needed to build what comes after speculation. If JPYSC succeeds, it will be because Startale and its partners assembled that talent before the rest of the market fully understood what it was competing for.

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin trades near $63,255, down about 28% in 2026 and 49% below its October 2021 record of $124,774, marking the deepest drawdown since the 2022 collapse.
Volatility sits near its 12-month average despite the slide, signaling an orderly repricing rather than panic capitulation, with 20 of the last 30 sessions closing lower.
Key support clusters just below the current price, the 200-week moving average near $61,810, and the 61.8% Fibonacci level near $57,392, while a deeper break points toward the $43,000 zone.
History skews mildly positive into Q3 and Q4 with an RSI near 15 flagging stretched selling, but the last cycle took 846 days to reclaim its peak, so a fast recovery is not the base case.

Bitcoin has spent 2026 handing back the gains that made last year a record run. As of June 8, the price sits near $63,255, down roughly 14% over the past week and about 28% since the start of the year.

That leaves it about 49% below the all-time high of $124,774 set on October 7, 2025.

Anyone who bought the top has watched more than $61,000 drain from every coin. The question echoing across trading desks and group chats is blunt: how much worse can it get?

The data offers a more nuanced answer than the panic suggests.

Bitcoin price 2020 to 2026 with major events, log scale — Bitcoin price 2020-2026 with major events, log scale. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Bitcoin’s Deepest Drawdown Since 2022 Continues to Unfold

Strip away the noise, and the scale of the move is clear. Bitcoin is down about 14% over the past 7 days, 21% over the past month, and roughly 40% from a year ago.

Measured from the October peak, the drawdown reaches 49.3%, the deepest hole since the 2022 collapse. In dollar terms, the market has erased around $61,519 of value per coin in 244 days.

The recent week ranks among the harsher stretches Bitcoin has seen since 2020, though the worst weekly drops still belong to the March 2020 pandemic crash. This selloff is severe but not historic. What stands out is its steady, grinding nature. This is not a single violent night of liquidations, but a prolonged phase of attrition.

Bitcoin drawdown from rolling peak. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Bitcoin Is Falling, but Not Capitulating

Here is the detail most coverage misses.

Given the depth of the decline, Bitcoin is remarkably calm. Thirty-day annualized volatility sits near 40%, which is almost exactly its average over the past twelve months.

A near-halving of price, with volatility stuck at the mean, is unusual and suggests the market is repricing rather than capitulating. Twenty of the last 30 sessions closed lower, yet the worst single-day decline was only about 6.6%.

Zoom out, and the calm fits a longer pattern.

Bitcoin volatility has compressed cycle after cycle, from an average above 60% in 2020, with spikes past 160%, to the low 40s across 2025 and 2026. Each bear market arrives quieter than the last.

That maturation is a double-edged story. Smaller drawdowns are easier to stomach, but the explosive upside that defined early Bitcoin is fading with it.

Bitcoin 30-day annualized volatility. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Death Cross Persists as Bitcoin Enters Oversold Territory

Momentum traders have plenty to point at. Bitcoin has been in a death cross since November 17, 2025, with the 50-day moving average below the 200-day moving average.

Price now trades roughly 17% below its 50-day average and about 19% below its 200-day average, a posture that historically signals weak phases rather than bottoms.

Counterbalancing that, the 14-day Relative Strength Index has plunged to about 15, one of the most oversold readings in the dataset. Levels under 30 flag oversold conditions, and readings under 20 are rare.

Oversold does not mean a bottom is in, but it does mean the selling is stretched and short-term relief bounces become statistically more likely from here.

Bitcoin price with 50 and 200-day moving averages. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Key Support Levels and Downside Scenarios for Bitcoin

If buyers want a line in the sand, several converge close to the current price. The 200-week moving average, a level that has marked cycle bottoms before, sits near $61,810, only about 2.3% below where Bitcoin trades today.

Lose that, and the next widely watched support is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire 2022 low to 2025 high move, around $57,392, roughly 9% lower. Below that, the 78.6% retracement near $39,075 is in play.

Scenario math frames the tail risk.

A drawdown deepening to 55% from the peak implies about $56,148. Sixty percent points to roughly $49,909. A drop matching the 70% mark lands near $37,432, and a repeat of the 2022 bear, which bottomed 77% below its peak, would imply something close to $28,698.

Bitcoin versus its six year log-regression trend band, with price about 9% below the $69,279 fair value line and bracketed by bands at roughly $42,853 and $112,002. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python) — Bitcoin versus its six-year log-regression trend band, with price about 9% below the $69,279 fair value line and bracketed by bands at roughly $42,853 and $112,002. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

A six-year logarithmic trend model puts a longer-term fair value near $70,000 and a lower band around $43,000, which brackets the realistic range without pretending to predict it.

Bitcoin support levels and log-regression fair value band. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

How Today’s Selloff Compares With the 2022 Collapse

Comparing the current decline day for day against the 2021 to 2022 collapse is reassuring, at least relative to that nightmare. At every checkpoint, this selloff is shallower.

Two hundred and forty-four days after its peak, Bitcoin is down 49% today, versus down 70% at the same stage in 2022. The last great bear eventually bottomed 77% below its high, at $15,742, after 366 brutal days.

Recovery timelines are the sobering part. The November 2021 peak took 846 days, nearly two and a half years, before Bitcoin reclaimed it. Holders hoping for a quick return to $124,774 should weigh that history carefully.

current selloff versus 2021-22 drawdown path] — Current selloff versus 2021-22 drawdown path. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Seasonality and Conditional History Point to a Mixed Outlook

Calendar patterns add a near-term headwind. Since 2020, June has produced a median monthly return of about negative 5%, and August around negative 7%, making summer the softest stretch of the Bitcoin year.

October, by contrast, has been the strongest, with a median near 18%, which suggests the back half of the year tends to treat holders better than the middle.

Conditional history offers a two-sided read. On days when Bitcoin traded below its 200-day average, as it does now, the median return over the following 90 days was around positive 5%, with outcomes ranging from roughly negative 59% to positive 107%.

The central tendency leans mildly positive, but the tails are violent. That is the honest answer to the headline. Near term, the odds favor a bounce; the deeper structural floor likely sits between $57,000 and $43,000, and a full 2022-style washout, while not the base case, cannot be ruled out.

Outlook for Q3 and Q4

History gives the back half of the year a mild tailwind, but with wide error bars. Since 2020, Bitcoin’s third quarter has posted a median gain near 7%, ranging from a 12% loss in 2023 to an 18% gain in 2020. Applied to the c urrent price, that frames a plausible Q3 band of roughly $55,900 on the weak end to about $74,600 on the strong end, with a midpoint near $67,500.

Notice how cleanly those edges map onto the chart levels already in play. The bear case lands right on the 200-week moving average and the 61.8% Fibonacci support near $57,000, while the bull case stalls into the 50-day moving average resistance around $75,800.

Fourth-quarter history looks far more bullish on paper, with a median return above 27%, but that figure masks enormous volatility.

October has historically been Bitcoin’s best month, and 2020 delivered a 166% quarter that boosted the average. Yet the most recent data point cuts the other way.

Bitcoin outlook for Q3 and Q4. | Credit: Dr. Guneet Kaur (created via Python)

Q4 of 2025 fell about 23%, the very decline that opened this bear market, proving the seasonal pattern is a tendency and not a rule. If the median seasonal path repeated from here, Bitcoin would end Q3 near $67,500 and the year somewhere around $85,900, still well below the October record.

The honest read is a skew, not a forecast. Near-term momentum is oversold, and seasonality leans positive into autumn, which supports a recovery attempt from the $57,000 to $62,000 support zone.

A clean break below that band shifts focus toward the $43,000 region flagged by the long-term trend model. Both paths remain in play, the sample size is only six years deep, and none of this is investment advice.

Methodology

This analysis draws on daily Bitcoin closing prices in US dollars pulled from the CoinGecko Pro API, specifically the coins market chart range endpoint, covering January 1, 2020 through June 8, 2026, totaling roughly 2,351 daily observations. Returns are simple percentage changes between closes. Drawdown is measured against the running maximum price. Annualized volatility is the 30-day standard deviation of daily returns scaled by the square root of 365. Moving averages use 50-, 200-, and 1,400-day (200-week) simple moving averages.

The Relative Strength Index uses the standard 14-day calculation. Fibonacci levels are drawn from the 2022 cycle low to the 2025 all-time high. The fair value band is derived from a log-log regression of price over time, shown with a one-standard-deviation envelope.

Several limits apply. The dataset is price-only, so it cannot speak to trading volume, onchain flows, or exchange reserves. Base rates rest on roughly two completed market cycles, which is a small sample, so they describe history rather than forecast it. Technical levels such as Fibonacci retracements and moving averages are widely watched and partly self-fulfilling, not predictive. None of the above is investment advice.

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FAQs

How much has Bitcoin fallen in 2026?

As of June 8, Bitcoin trades near $63,255, down about 28% year to date and roughly 49% below its all time high of $124,774 set on October 7, 2025. That works out to more than $61,000 erased from every coin in 244 days, the deepest drawdown since the 2022 bear market.

What are the key support levels for Bitcoin right now?

The first major support is the 200 week moving average near $61,810, just below current price and a level that has marked cycle bottoms before. Beneath that sits the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement around $57,392, and a deeper break opens the way toward the $43,000 region flagged by the long term trend model.

Is Bitcoin going to recover in Q3 and Q4 of 2026?

History leans mildly positive, with a median Q3 gain near 7% and a Q4 median above 27% since 2020, while an RSI near 15 signals the selling is stretched. That said, the variance is enormous, Q4 of 2025 actually fell 23%, and the last cycle took 846 days to reclaim its peak, so a fast recovery is far from guaranteed.

How does this selloff compare with the 2022 crash?

This decline is shallower at every stage. At 244 days past the peak, Bitcoin is down 49% today versus 70% at the same point in 2022, a bear that eventually bottomed 77% below its high at $15,742. Volatility is also far calmer this time, sitting near its twelve month average rather than spiking.

Key Takeaways

Four leading AI models offered widely different Ethereum forecasts for 2026, highlighting the uncertainty surrounding ETH’s next major move.
ChatGPT delivered the most bullish outlook, projecting a base-case range of $4,000-$8,000 and a potential upside scenario of $8,000-$15,000.
Claude provided the most conservative forecast, estimating a 2026 range of approximately $1,620-$3,700.

Ethereum has endured a difficult first half of 2026, with the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency falling from above $2,500 at the start of the year to around $1,600 by June.

Weak ETF flows, macroeconomic uncertainty, and persistent competition from rival blockchain networks have weighed heavily on sentiment, leaving investors divided over what comes next.

To gauge how artificial intelligence views Ethereum’s future, we asked four leading AI models, ChatGPT, Gemini, Claude, and Grok, to assess ETH’s prospects for the remainder of 2026.

While all four models acknowledged Ethereum’s strong position as the dominant smart contract platform, their forecasts varied significantly, ranging from cautious recovery scenarios to major breakout predictions above $10,000.

The responses highlight how uncertain the outlook for ETH remains as traders balance bearish market conditions with long-term adoption trends.

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ChatGPT Sees Ethereum Reaching $6,000-$7,000 in a Base-Case Scenario

Among the four models, ChatGPT delivered one of the most bullish long-term outlooks. Rather than offering a single prediction, it assigned probabilities to multiple outcomes.

According to ChatGPT, the most likely scenario is that Ethereum trades between $4,000 and $8,000 by 2026, with a “fair value” estimate of $6,000 to $7,000. The model also outlined a bull-case range of $8,000 to $15,000 or higher if institutional adoption accelerates.

ChatGPT prediction — ChatGPT response on ETH prediction for the rest of the year. | Credit: ChatGPT

The forecast is built on three major themes: growing ETF demand, expanding tokenization of real-world assets, and Ethereum’s staking-based supply dynamics.

ChatGPT argued that Ethereum’s future increasingly depends on whether major financial institutions such as BlackRock, JPMorgan, and Fidelity adopt it as a settlement layer for tokenized assets.

However, it also highlighted risks, including rising competition from Solana, concerns about value capture from Layer-2 networks, and ongoing governance challenges.

Gemini Focuses on Current Weakness Rather Than Price Targets

Unlike the other models, Google’s Gemini avoided making a specific year-end price prediction and instead focused on Ethereum’s current market conditions and key drivers.

Gemini noted that ETH has fallen approximately 44% from its 2026 opening price and is currently trading near €1,419.

The model emphasized that Ethereum’s future performance will largely depend on macroeconomic conditions, Layer-2 adoption, network fee dynamics, and institutional investment flows.

One of Gemini’s key observations was the impact of Layer-2 scaling solutions on Ethereum’s burn mechanism.

While lower fees improve usability, they may temporarily reduce the amount of ETH removed from circulation through fee burning, potentially affecting supply dynamics.

The model also pointed to ETF demand as a critical variable that could determine whether Ethereum establishes a durable price floor or remains under pressure.

Claude Remains Cautious as ETF Outflows Continue

Anthropic’s Claude offered the most conservative assessment among the four AI systems.

The model highlighted Ethereum’s challenging market environment, noting that US spot ETH ETFs recorded 17 consecutive days of net outflows during May, totaling approximately $401 million.

Combined with a confirmed technical “death cross,” these factors led Claude to maintain a cautious outlook.

Claude forecast — Claude proved to be the most cautious among the AI models. | Credit: Claude AI

Further prediction market data reinforced the bearish view. Claude cited probabilities from Polymarket and Kalshi, suggesting that ETH has a probability of more than 70% of revisiting the $1,500 level before the end of the year.

Despite these concerns, Claude identified potential catalysts for recovery, particularly Ethereum’s upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade. The update is expected to introduce improvements, including proposer-builder separation, parallel execution, and enhanced Layer-1 scalability.

For 2026, Claude’s forecast range spans from approximately $1,620 to $3,700, depending on whether ETF flows recover and broader market conditions improve.

Grok Predicts a Potential Rally Toward $8,000

Elon Musk’s Grok landed somewhere between ChatGPT’s optimism and Claude’s caution.

The model’s base-case scenario projects Ethereum finishing 2026 between $3,000 and $4,000, implying a significant recovery from current levels. Grok also outlined a bullish range of $6,000 to $8,000 or higher if institutional adoption, ETF inflows, and tokenized asset growth accelerate.

Like ChatGPT, Grok highlighted the growing importance of Ethereum ETFs, real-world asset tokenization, and network upgrades as potential growth drivers.

Grok view — Grok sits between ChatGPT’s bold prediction and Claude’s cautious stance. | Credit: Grok

The model also referenced forecasts from traditional financial institutions that have described 2026 as a potentially strong year for Ethereum.

At the same time, Grok acknowledged substantial risks, including regulatory uncertainty, macroeconomic shocks, and competition from faster blockchain networks.

Taken together, the four AI forecasts reveal a striking divergence of opinion. While Claude sees Ethereum struggling to break above $3,700, ChatGPT’s most optimistic scenario envisions ETH surpassing $15,000.

The common thread across all four models is that Ethereum’s trajectory in 2026 will likely depend on ETF flows, institutional adoption, network upgrades, and the broader macroeconomic environment.

For now, AI appears divided, but several models agree that if institutional adoption accelerates, Ethereum could be positioned for a much larger breakout than many investors currently expect.

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CZ says Bitcoin’s slump won’t last.
Wintermute warns the bottom may not be in yet.
Some analysts still see Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by 2028.

Former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao has spoken out to reassure Bitcoin holders, claiming the falling asset won’t stay “dead” for long.

The optimism comes after trading firm Wintermute warned that deteriorating market conditions could drive further losses for the price.

Despite the downturn, some analysts have remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s short-term prospects, with forecasts calling for it to potentially climb to $250,000 before its next halving event in 2028.

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CZ Is Optimistic on Bitcoin Price

As Bitcoin’s price fell below $61,000, CZ took to X to try to stoke some optimism back into holders.

“Bitcoin won’t be ‘dead’ for too long,” CZ wrote.

Adding: “Don’t panic, in large friendly letters.”

Bitcoin won't be "dead" for too long.

Don't panic, in large friendly letters.

— CZ 🔶 BNB (@cz_binance) June 9, 2026

Zhao’s optimism follows previous comments calling for a more upbeat market outlook.

Speaking in a May interview with ARK Invest, CZ said he believed the current cycle could recover faster than previous crypto bear markets.

“I’m still very hopeful that this year might turn out different,” Zhao said.

Adding: “This recovery might be slightly faster than the historic bear market recoveries.”

He argued that institutional adoption of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds would help reduce price volatility over time.

“Most institutions are long-term holders,” Zhao said. “When they get in, they don’t get out within a month. They will hold for multiple years.”

Zhao also pointed to Trump as a possible reason why Bitcoin would recover.

“He (President Donald Trump) views the stock market as his benchmark,” Zhao said.

Adding: “He’s going to do everything in his power to improve the stock market. When the stock market does well, crypto will do well.”

Wintermute Less Hopeful

Algorithmic trading firm Wintermute warned that Bitcoin may still have further to fall, saying the market had yet to show clear signs of a bottom.

The firm said Bitcoin’s break below prior support left the token with few obvious technical levels to lean on, after it spent little time in the $50,000 to $59,000 range during its 2024 rally.

“We’re not calling the bottom here, because there’s no sign of inflows returning and the macro is still difficult,” Wintermute said.

The crypto market’s weakness coincided with a selloff in artificial intelligence-related equities, the firm said.

During the week, the Nasdaq fell 4.7% while the S&P 500 recorded its first weekly decline since March.

Wintermute also suggested that investors may also be positioning ahead of several large initial public offerings, including a widely anticipated SpaceX listing expected on June 12.

The firm said the next test for risk appetite would be whether those listings are absorbed smoothly or will expose further exhaustion.

Strategy Sale Adds to Market Anxiety

Bitcoin’s latest leg lower was accelerated by news that Michael Saylor’s Strategy sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31, marking the company’s first bitcoin sale since 2022.

While the transaction was insignificant relative to Bitcoin’s market capitalization, Wintermute said its symbolic importance had weighed on investor confidence.

“32 BTC is immaterial,” the firm wrote.

Adding: “Saylor selling for the first time in four years, into a market already bleeding flows, is not.”

The company noted that Bitcoin exchange-traded funds experienced ten consecutive trading sessions of outflows through May 30, totaling nearly $3 billion.

May ended with net ETF outflows of approximately $2.43 billion, making it the worst month for flows in 2026.

With Bitcoin having spent little time between $50,000 and $59,000 during its 2024 rally, the firm said there are few obvious technical support levels below current prices.

Bullish Bitcoin Long-Term Price Forecasts Remain

Despite the recent weakness, some market commentators remain highly optimistic.

Motley Fool analyst Neil Patel forecast that Bitcoin could rise nearly 290% from around $64,000 to reach $250,000 before the next halving event, expected in April 2028.

Patel argued that Bitcoin’s core fundamentals remain intact, citing continued network security, robust transaction volume, and increasingly favorable regulatory treatment in the US.

He also highlighted Bitcoin’s historical four-year market cycle, noting that each halving has been followed by substantial long-term price growth.

“Assuming the rate of return continues to decelerate, Bitcoin’s price could be trading around $250,000 at the next halving,” Patel wrote.

Patel added that AI could also eventually become a tailwind for Bitcoin.

“If AI advances as industry optimists hope, the market will recognize the need for a decentralized, digital, and scarce medium of exchange and store of value,” he said.

Patel said this could put the spotlight back on Bitcoin.

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Key Takeaways

H token crashed roughly 85% on June 9, falling from about $0.70 to near $0.08 in 12 hours.
Humanity Protocol says $36 million or more was stolen across Ethereum and BNB Chain. Trackers logged $30 million to $32 million mid-theft.
Root cause was an employee laptop breach, not a smart contract bug, leading to multisig key theft.
Attackers seized three of six Gnosis Safe keys on Ethereum and three of five on BSC, then took ProxyAdmin control of the bridges.

Humanity Protocol, the palm-scanning identity project often branded the “Chinese Worldcoin,” saw its H token collapse by roughly 90% on June 9 after attackers seized control of its cross-chain bridges and drained tens of millions of dollars in a single coordinated raid.

The token fell from about $0.70 to near $0.08 over roughly 12 hours, with some trackers logging a brief touch as low as $0.05.

That wipeout erased nearly all of a recent rally that had carried H to record highs and exposed how fragile the project’s foundations were beneath the marketing.

$H token crashed 90%. | Source: @lookonchain

The team now says the damage exceeds early estimates. In a detailed thread, Humanity Protocol confirmed that around $36 million or more had been stolen across Ethereum and BNB Chain and dumped into the market.

What Happened in the Humanity Protocol Hack

The breach did not exploit a smart contract bug, but it exploited people.

Humanity Protocol traced the incident to a compromise that began after an employee’s laptop was breached. That single foothold handed attackers access to the signing keys controlling the project’s bridge infrastructure, the machinery that moves H tokens between blockchains.

From there the raid escalated within hours, and onchain investigators flagged the drains almost in real time.

Humanity Protocol: Attacker Obtained Seven Private Keys From One Compromised Device

Humanity Protocol said in an investigation report that the June 8 attack was caused by a key compromise after a developer machine was infected with malware, giving the attacker full root access.… pic.twitter.com/0emLZH3dxi

— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) June 10, 2026

The attacker did not sit on the loot. Analysts watched the exploiter offload stolen H into the open market and convert it into Ethereum, with one estimate putting roughly $23.7 million in stolen assets already swapped into ETH, while millions more in H remained under the attacker’s control.

The exploiter routed large H swaps through automated market makers and aggregators, including Kyber Network and PancakeSwap, turning the bridge breach into relentless sell pressure that drove the price into freefall.

Every block brought fresh tokens hitting the market, and ordinary holders had no way to front-run an attacker selling into thin liquidity.

How Attackers Seized the Bridge Contracts

The Humanity Protocol incident was not caused by a flaw in the smart contract code itself. Instead, it stemmed from a compromise of the project team’s private keys.

Attackers infected a developer’s laptop with malware, exposing several critical private keys stored on that device. These keys controlled Gnosis Safe multisignatures that governed the upgrade permissions for the project’s token bridges on Ethereum and BNB Smart Chain.

Step-by-Step Attack Execution

1. Gaining Multisig Control

The bridges relied on Hyperlane infrastructure using upgradeable proxy contracts (specifically ProxyAdmin contracts) owned by Gnosis Safes.

On Ethereum, the attackers obtained 3 out of 6 owner keys.
On BSC, they secured 3 out of 5 keys.

This was enough to meet the required threshold and execute transactions from the Safes.

Threat Actors in Humanity Protocol attack — Threat Actors in the Humanity Protocol attack. | Source: Humanity Protocol

2. Transferring Ownership

Using the compromised keys, the attackers submitted Safe transactions that transferred ownership of the ProxyAdmin contracts to wallets they controlled.

3. Upgrading to Malicious Implementations

Once they owned the ProxyAdmin, they upgraded the bridge proxy contracts to new malicious versions. These upgraded contracts contained backdoors, including functions that allowed unlimited minting of H tokens and direct draining of bridged funds.

4. Executing the Theft

On Ethereum, attackers first drained funds from an admin hot wallet, followed by a massive withdrawal of roughly 141 million H tokens from the bridge.
On BSC, they minted over 200 million H tokens through the compromised bridge contract.
They quickly swapped large portions of the stolen and newly minted tokens for ETH and BNB on decentralized exchanges, causing the H token’s price to crash dramatically.

The project responded by using unaffected multisignature wallets to freeze the Ethereum token contract and limit further damage. Other chains like Arbitrum reportedly remained secure.

Humanity has been exploited, with losses exceeding $30M. | Source: @lookonchain

Core Reason for the Breach

This was fundamentally an operational security failure. Multiple high-privilege keys were kept on a single laptop rather than being properly separated across hardware wallets, air-gapped environments, or distributed among trusted parties with strict access controls.

Malware on that device gave attackers everything they needed to take over the administrative controls.

Incidents like this highlight why robust key management and separation of duties remain critical for any project managing cross-chain bridges and upgradeable contracts.

The team has since collaborated with security experts to investigate and contain the breach.

Humanity Protocol’s Response to the Hack

The project team, led by founder Terence Kwok, quickly acknowledged the security incident and attributed it to the compromise of private keys from a single developer’s laptop infected with malware.

They emphasized that this was not due to any vulnerability in their smart contracts, bridge code, or Gnosis Safe setup.

Key Actions Taken

Paused operations: Immediately halted all deposits and withdrawals on the affected bridges (Ethereum and BSC) as a precaution. Users were advised not to interact with the bridges or related liquidity pools until further notice.
Contract mitigation: Used unaffected multisignature wallets to freeze the Ethereum H token contract and limit additional damage.
Collaboration: Worked with external security experts for forensic investigation, coordinated with exchanges to track and potentially freeze stolen funds, and involved law enforcement (police) to aid in recovery efforts.
Transparency measures: Published updates via official channels, set up a live tracker monitoring exploiter addresses and tainted H tokens, and committed to sharing verified information only.

We're aware of a security incident involving the compromise of private keys belonging to a member of the Humanity Foundation. The safety of our community is our top priority, and we want to be fully transparent about what we know.
As a precaution, please do NOT interact with the…

— Humanity (@Humanityprot) June 9, 2026

Statements from the Team

The team expressed deep regret and apologized to the community. Kwok stated on X:

“We’ve detected a security incident involving the compromise of private keys belonging to a member of the Humanity Foundation. As a precaution, please do not interact with the bridge or any liquidity pools until we confirm it’s safe.”

A full post-mortem report was promised once the investigation advances further.

The team mentioned they are developing a recovery plan for affected parties. As of the latest updates, no stolen funds have been recovered, and the focus remains on containment, investigation, and supporting impacted holders.

The project continues to provide regular updates through its official X account (@Humanityprot) and founder Terence Kwok.

Who Is Behind Humanity Protocol

Humanity Protocol is primarily driven by Terence Kwok, its founder and public face.

Founder: Terence Kwok

Background: Hong Kong-based tech entrepreneur. He previously founded Tink Labs in 2012, a company that provided “Handy” smartphones for hotel guests. Tink Labs became one of Asia’s early unicorns after raising significant funding (including from SoftBank).
Role: He leads the vision for Humanity Protocol, focusing on decentralized identity using palm vein biometrics, zero-knowledge proofs, and blockchain to verify real humans while preserving privacy.
He remains actively involved as the project’s founder and has been communicating directly during recent events, including the bridge hack.

Key Supporting Figures & Foundation

Yeewai Chong: Serves as interim CEO of the Humanity Foundation. He has a background in investment (Morgan Stanley, Ortus Capital) and holds a Ph.D. in economics from Stanford.
Yat Siu (Chairman of Animoca Brands): Founding director of the Humanity Foundation and a key advisor/influencer in the project.
Mario Nawfal (Founder of International Blockchain Consulting) is also a founding director of the Humanity Foundation.

Backers and Investors

Humanity Protocol has raised roughly $50 million across funding rounds and achieved unicorn status (a valuation of around $1.1 billion following a 2025 round). Notable investors include:

Pantera Capital and Jump Crypto (co-led a $20M round)
Kingsway Capital
Hashed, Cypher Capital, Animoca Brands, Blockchain.com Ventures, Mechanism Capital, Shima Capital, and others
Angel/backer support from figures like Sandeep Nailwal (Polygon co-founder)

Why the Timing Raises Questions

The timing of the Humanity Protocol hack has sparked significant skepticism in the crypto community. The attack occurred just two weeks before a major investor token unlock scheduled for June 25, which would have flooded the market with new supply.

Following a massive 875% price surge earlier in the year, driven by heavy promotion, the hack triggered an immediate 90% crash. This sequence allowed large holders and market makers to potentially exit positions with minimal additional selling pressure from the upcoming unlock.

Prominent onchain investigator ZachXBT initially suggested the incident appeared possibly staged as a convenient exit route, noting the dumps occurred mainly on DEXes. Although he later softened his stance, the rapid execution across chains and the project’s prior issues with bot registrations have kept doubts alive.

You choose to crime pump your token for weeks with zero fundamentals and think CT will blindly trust your story?

Disclose your active MM agreements with the HK entity first….

— ZachXBT (@zachxbt) June 9, 2026

X user Fabino.sol expressed strong skepticism about the Humanity Protocol hack shortly after it occurred.

He questioned how the project lost around $31 million despite multiple multisig keys allegedly being stored on a single developer’s laptop, calling the security setup highly suspicious.

Humanity Protocol founder (@terencekwok) took $60K from a $100K InfoFi rewards campaign for himself

The same protocol that paid Chinese scam KOLs has now suffered a $31M exploit

Well well well… pic.twitter.com/s4F9g9c8Yl

— fabiano.sol (@FabianoSolana) June 9, 2026

Additionally, he pointed to past controversies involving founder Terence Kwok, including allegations that the founder personally took funds from a rewards campaign and that the project paid Chinese KOLs for promotion, suggesting a pattern of questionable practices. His comments used skeptical tones to imply that the official explanation of the hack raised many red flags.

While the technical explanation of a compromised developer laptop remains plausible, the alignment with classic exit patterns has left many questioning whether the breach provided cover for damage control or strategic liquidation.

Full transparency and a detailed post-mortem are now demanded by the community.

Bigger Picture: Private Key Hacks Dominate 2026

In 2026, private key compromises emerged as the leading cause of major crypto losses, surpassing traditional smart contract exploits.

While code vulnerabilities still occur, the majority of high-value incidents involve attackers gaining control of administrative or treasury keys through malware, phishing, or social engineering — often targeting developers or team members.

Notable examples include:

Drift Protocol ($285M loss) via a sophisticated, months-long operation targeting admin keys.
Kelp DAO ($292M) is linked to compromised bridge validators.
Multiple bridge and treasury hacks, such as Resolv Labs, Step Finance, and IoTeX ioTube, stemming from stolen private keys.

The Humanity Protocol incident fits this pattern perfectly: attackers seized control via keys stored on a single laptop, upgraded bridge contracts, and drained funds.

Security reports show private key compromises accounted for a massive share of stolen funds in early 2026, with losses reaching hundreds of millions across DeFi and bridges. This trend highlights a persistent industry weakness — human and operational security.

Even with audited smart contracts and multisig wallets, poor key management (centralized storage, insufficient separation, or device vulnerabilities) creates exploitable single points of failure. As projects grow, the attack surface shifts from code to people and processes.

The message for 2026 is clear: robust key custody, hardware isolation, distributed multisigs, and continuous team security training are now essential defenses. Without them, even well-funded projects remain highly vulnerable.

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FAQs

What happened to Humanity Protocol's H token?

H token crashed roughly 85% on June 9 after attackers seized control of the project’s cross chain bridges and drained tens of millions of dollars. Its price fell from about $0.70 to near $0.08 in roughly 12 hours, wiping out a recent rally to record highs.

How did hackers steal from Humanity Protocol?

Hackers did not exploit a smart contract bug. They breached an employee laptop, compromised a majority of the multisig keys controlling the bridge contracts, then took over the ProxyAdmin and swept funds across Ethereum and BNB Chain. On BSC they also deployed a malicious contract with an unlimited mint function and minted hundreds of millions of fresh H.

How much did Humanity Protocol lose in the hack?

Figures vary as funds were still moving during the theft. Humanity Protocol’s own thread puts the loss at around $36 million or more across both chains, while several on chain trackers estimated closer to $30 million to $32 million.

Is Humanity Protocol the same as Worldcoin?

No, though it competes directly with it. Humanity Protocol verifies users with palm scans rather than the iris scans Worldcoin uses, and its Hong Kong rooted leadership under founder Terence Kwok earned it the “Chinese Worldcoin” nickname

Key Takeaways

Bitcoin has fallen from its May high of $82,607 to around $61,000-$63,000, extending a correction that has intensified amid broader market uncertainty.
More than $4 billion has exited Bitcoin ETFs over the past four weeks, signaling weakening institutional demand and reversing much of the positive momentum seen in the year.
Market sentiment has deteriorated sharply, with the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropping to 14, placing the market firmly in “extreme fear” territory.

Bitcoin is approaching a critical inflection point as mounting selling pressure, persistent ETF outflows, and deteriorating market sentiment continue to weigh on the world’s largest cryptocurrency.

After reaching a peak of $82,607 in May, Bitcoin has entered a sustained correction, recently falling to the $61,000- $63,000 range as investors reassess risk amid changing macroeconomic conditions.

While bulls are attempting to defend the psychologically important $60,000 level, technical indicators suggest that the market remains vulnerable to further downside.

At the same time, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have experienced more than $4 billion in outflows over the past four weeks, highlighting weakening institutional demand and adding to concerns that the correction may not yet be complete.

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ETF Outflows and Risk-Off Sentiment Weigh on Bitcoin

One of the biggest drivers behind Bitcoin’s recent weakness has been the sharp reversal in institutional flows. According to market data, Bitcoin ETFs have shed more than $4 billion in assets over the past month, effectively erasing much of the momentum generated during March and April.

The outflows reflect a growing sense of caution among investors as financial markets grapple with rising uncertainty.

Recent US economic data showed stronger-than-expected job creation, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve could maintain a tighter monetary policy stance or even consider additional interest rate hikes later this year.

The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently fell into ‘extreme fear’ territory. | Credit: CoinMarketCap

Higher interest rates tend to reduce appetite for risk assets, and cryptocurrencies have been among the hardest-hit sectors during the latest bout of risk aversion.

The broader weakness has extended beyond digital assets, with major US equity indices posting significant declines and technology stocks facing renewed selling pressure.

Investor sentiment in the crypto market has also deteriorated sharply. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index recently fell to 14, placing it firmly within the “extreme fear” category.

Historically, such readings often coincide with periods of heightened volatility and investor capitulation, although they can sometimes precede longer-term market bottoms.

Despite the negative sentiment, some institutional buyers continue to accumulate. Strategy announced the purchase of 1,550 BTC, valued at approximately $101.3 million, offering a reminder that long-term conviction among certain corporate investors remains intact.

Technical Structure Points to Further Downside Risk

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s chart remains decisively bearish. The cryptocurrency is currently trading within a horizontal channel, reflecting uncertainty among market participants as they wait for a clear directional catalyst.

However, the balance of evidence favors sellers. Bitcoin has broken below the lower boundary of a previous ascending channel and remains below key moving averages. Volume metrics indicate aggressive selling activity, while buyers have largely remained on the sidelines.

Bitcoin RSI — Bitcoin’s RSI fell below 30. | Credit: Bitbo

Momentum indicators paint a similarly cautious picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen below 30, signaling extremely negative short-term momentum.

While such readings often suggest oversold conditions that can trigger temporary rebounds, they do not necessarily indicate that a market bottom has been established.

Additional technical weakness emerged after Bitcoin slipped below the ultimate support level of the Murrey Math Lines tool at $62,500.

The recent rebound from around $59,800 resembles a classic dead-cat bounce, a temporary recovery within a broader downtrend.

Immediate resistance now sits near $66,000, while support remains fragile. Without a strong catalyst to attract buyers, traders are increasingly focused on lower support zones that could come into play if selling pressure intensifies.

Potential Drop Toward $47,000

Market observers are increasingly debating how deep the current correction could become. According to on-chain analyst VoidOnChain, Bitcoin is revisiting a region where multiple previous relief rallies have failed, making the current price zone one of the most important decision points of the cycle.

The analyst’s roadmap suggests Bitcoin could first lose the $60,000 level before declining toward $53,000 in the near term.

A deeper capitulation event could then push the cryptocurrency toward $47,000 by July, completing what is viewed as the final leg of the corrective structure.

Bitcoin technical analysis — Bitcoin is within an approximate horizontal trend channel. | Credit: InvestTech

This outlook is based on similarities between the current market setup and previous corrective waves observed earlier in 2026.

If the projected decline materializes and establishes a durable bottom, Bitcoin could eventually recover toward $87,000 before targeting significantly higher levels near $151,000 by early 2027.

For now, however, the focus remains firmly on downside risks. ETF outflows, extreme fear, weakening technical indicators, and macroeconomic uncertainty continue to pressure Bitcoin’s price action.

Unless bulls can successfully defend the $60,000 area and reclaim the $66,000 resistance, the path of least resistance may remain lower in the weeks ahead.

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