The quantum computing threat debate continues. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Glassnode estimates that 6.04 million Bitcoin are currently exposed to quantum computing.
Quantum security firms such as AmericanFortress argue that even dormant wallets could potentially be protected.
Industry opinion remains divided.
Bitcoin’s exposure to future quantum computing attacks could extend to nearly one-third of the crypto’s circulating supply, according to new research from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode.
However, some industry executives and developers say mitigation strategies are already being explored and believe the fears may be overblown.
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Glassnode Says 6 Million Bitcoin Are Already Exposed
On Wednesday, Glassnode estimated that 6.04 million bitcoin — about 30.2% of the issued supply — is currently “exposed” because the public keys needed to spend the coins are already visible on-chain.
The report said 1.92 million bitcoin, or 9.6% of supply, faces what it described as “structural exposure,” including early pay-to-public-key wallets linked to the Satoshi era.
Another 4.12 million Bitcoin is operationally exposed through address reuse and custody practices, it said.
Glassnode stressed that the analysis was not a prediction that quantum attacks are imminent, nor a claim that exposed wallets face immediate danger.
Instead, the report described the data as “a baseline map” of where public keys are already visible on Bitcoin’s blockchain.
“The operational insight is therefore clear: quantum readiness is not only a protocol-level question,” the report said.
AmericanFortress Says Satoshi’s 1.1 Million Bitcoin Could Be Protected
The findings come as blockchain developers and security firms increasingly explore how crypto could withstand future advances in quantum computing.
AmericanFortress told CoinDesk it has developed a new cryptographic signing framework to protect wallets.
The firm said the approach could help safeguard long-dormant Bitcoin holdings, including the estimated 1.1 million BTC commonly attributed to Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto, as well as other inactive wallets.
Speaking to CoinDesk, AmericanFortress Chief Executive Michal Pospieszalski said many early Bitcoin wallets were created before the introduction of modern hierarchical deterministic wallet standards, making automatic migration to newer security systems difficult.
To address that issue, he said the company is proposing a Bitcoin protocol upgrade that would temporarily lock potentially vulnerable dormant coins.
“Our quantum-resistant protocol would automatically freeze and protect those funds until governance decides what to do with them after Q-day,” Pospieszalski told CoinDesk.
Buterin Warned Bitcoin Quantum Threat Is No Longer “Science Fiction”
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has also urged the crypto industry to prepare for potential quantum breakthroughs.
Speaking publicly last year, Buterin said there was roughly a 20% chance that quantum computers capable of breaking existing cryptographic systems would emerge before 2030, citing forecasts from the prediction platform Metaculus.
“The quantum threat is no longer just distant science fiction,” Buterin said at the time.
He urged developers to begin preparing migration paths toward quantum-resistant cryptography.
Willy Woo Says Bitcoin Would Likely Survive a Quantum Shock
Others in the industry have argued that Bitcoin itself would likely survive even if quantum attacks eventually become feasible.
On-chain analyst Willy Woo said in December that the Bitcoin network’s cryptographic standards could ultimately be upgraded.
In March, ARK Invest argued that advanced quantum computers remain far from the capabilities needed to compromise the network.
ARK researchers said any credible risk would likely emerge gradually over years or decades.
This would give the Bitcoin ecosystem time to adapt through software upgrades and governance decisions.
The report said current quantum systems typically operate with around 100 logical qubits.
By contrast, breaking Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography would require a major leap to at least 2,330 logical qubits. At this level, it would be capable of executing tens of millions to billions of quantum operations, according to the report.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
