Key Takeaways
- XRP has rallied roughly 26% over the past week, putting September on course to become its third consecutive green month.
- Analyst EGRAG Crypto says a green September close would reproduce a rare accumulation pattern seen around the start of 2016.
- His historical scenario raises a $50 XRP price, but reaching that level from $1.61 would require a roughly 31X move.
XRP’s latest rally has put an extraordinary $50 price scenario back into focus as the crypto approaches a potentially important September close.
XRP was trading at around $1.61 at the time of writing, having gained roughly 26% over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap.
The rally has prompted crypto analyst EGRAG to suggest a possible $50 price target, prompting bulls to speculate about a potential “mega bull run”.
However, a closer look at the numbers shows just how extreme that target really is.
Why Does XRP’s September Close Matter?
XRP entered September at roughly $1.38, after rising about 2% in July and 30% in August.
At its current price near $1.61, it is therefore sitting approximately 17% above its September opening level.
That gives the token a reasonable cushion with around a week remaining before the monthly candle closes.
EGRAG’s thesis compares the developing sequence with XRP’s earlier accumulation period.
Historical price data shows XRP rose approximately:
- 44% in December 2015
- 6% in January 2016
- 24% in February 2016.
This produced the three consecutive positive monthly candles at the center of his comparison.
EGRAG argues that seeing another three-candle sequence during an accumulation period would make the comparison worth watching.
Did Three Green Candles Send XRP Straight Higher in 2016?
Crucially, XRP did not immediately explode after completing the historical three-candle pattern.
The crypto actually spent much of 2016 moving sideways and recording several negative months. Its dramatic rally arrived later.
XRP began 2017 around $0.006 and then recorded enormous gains during March, April and May.
Another surge arrived in December as the wider crypto bull market reached its peak.
Even if September completes EGRAG’s three-candle setup, the historical comparison does not provide a reliable timetable for another breakout.
Can XRP Really Reach $50?
The numbers become extremely shaky quickly when looking into what is needed.
At XRP’s current price of around $1.61, reaching $50 would require a gain of around 3,006%.
More importantly, XRP currently has approximately 62.87 billion tokens in circulation.
At $50 per token, those coins alone would be worth around $3.14 trillion.
For comparison, the entire crypto market is currently valued at around $2.94 trillion.
In other words, at today’s circulating supply, a $50 price would be worth around 7% more than the entire existing crypto market combined.
Using XRP’s maximum supply of 100 billion tokens would yield a fully diluted valuation of approximately $5 trillion.
While this does not make $50 mathematically impossible, as the wider crypto market could grow substantially larger in the future, it does show the immense growth required.
Rally Gives the Pattern Some Breathing Room
For now, EGRAG’s first test is considerably less ambitious than $50.
XRP simply needs to remain above its September opening price through the end of the month.
The latest rally has made that considerably easier.
XRP’s roughly 26% seven-day gain has pushed the crypto well above the level required for a third consecutive green monthly candle.
But reproducing one visual feature from a 2016 chart does not mean the enormous 2017 rally will follow.
September can keep the historical comparison alive, but turning that comparison into a $3 trillion-plus valuation would be an entirely harder challenge.
Extreme Price Calls Are Returning
EGRAG’s $50 scenario is not the only aggressive XRP forecast resurfacing as sentiment improves.
Across the XRP community, increasingly extreme targets are circulating again, including renewed speculation about a possible $1,000 price.
EasyA co-founder Dom Kwok recently posted simply:
“$1,000 is more likely than ever.”
While Kwok did not explicitly mention XRP in the post, commentator CharuSan quickly linked the remark to the token.
He even went as far as to argue that the EasyA co-founder had “definitely obtained information that backs it up.”
CharuSan singled out Kwok as someone whose comments he takes particularly seriously.
“Dom Kwok is one of the rare people whose words I can trust.”
While the speculation followed Kwok’s recent trip to Washington, the co-founder did not confirm he possessed any undisclosed information.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
