XRP's most bullish predictions may be under threat.
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Key Takeaways
CME FedWatch data placed the probability of a September interest-rate hike at approximately 70%, up from 37% one week earlier.
A hike could pressure Bitcoin, XRP and the wider crypto market by lifting Treasury yields and strengthening the dollar.
Higher borrowing costs would make Jake Claver’s prediction that XRP will exceed $750 before 2027 even more difficult to achieve.
Expectations of a September Federal Reserve rate hike have surged, threatening to disrupt Bitcoin’s recovery and create another obstacle for XRP’s most bullish price predictions.
Financial news account Walter Bloomberg highlighted market pricing that placed the likelihood of an increase at 70%, up from 37% one week earlier.
A separate Kalshi market also favors an increase, although traders on the prediction platform remain much more divided over what the Federal Reserve will do on Sept. 16.
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CME FedWatch data placed the probability of a 25-basis-point increase at approximately 70.2% on Wednesday, which would lift the federal funds target range from 3.5%–3.75% to 3.75%–4%.
That represented a sharp change from the 37% probability priced into the market one week earlier.
Kalshi traders were less convinced.
📊FED HIKE ODDS SURGE
Markets now see a 70% chance of a September Fed rate hike, up from 37% last week.
Kalshi traders also favor a 25bp hike, as rising oil prices and inflation fears push Treasury yields higher.
According to the prediction market on Thursday morning:
A 25-basis-point hike had a 53% probability.
The Fed keeping rates unchanged had a 46% probability.
An increase larger than 25 basis points had a 2% probability.
The Fed will announce its decision following a two-day meeting on Sept. 15–16, according to the Federal Reserve’s calendar.
At its previous meeting in July, the central bank kept rates at 3.5%–3.75% but acknowledged that inflation remained above its 2% objective.
Three policymakers voted for an immediate quarter-point increase, indicating that pressure for tighter monetary policy was already building before the latest rise in oil prices.
What Would a Rate Hike Mean for Bitcoin, XRP and Crypto?
A rate increase would generally represent a headwind for crypto.
Higher interest rates raise the return available from cash and government bonds, reducing the relative appeal of volatile assets that do not generate predictable income.
They can also strengthen the US dollar, restrict liquidity and make leveraged trading more expensive.
An IMF working paper examining crypto prices and US monetary policy found that Federal Reserve tightening historically reduced the broader “crypto factor” through the risk-taking channel.
Bitcoin would therefore face a greater risk of losing momentum if the Fed raises rates.
XRP and other altcoins could experience larger percentage moves because they generally have lower liquidity and higher volatility than Bitcoin.
However, a hike would not automatically guarantee a crypto sell-off.
Because traders are already assigning a substantial probability to the move, part of its potential effect may already be reflected in current prices.
The market’s reaction would depend on whether the decision and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s guidance were more hawkish or dovish than expected.
A 25-basis-point increase accompanied by language suggesting that no further hikes are planned could produce a relatively muted reaction—or even a relief rally.
An increase larger than 25 basis points would be a much bigger surprise and may place greater pressure on Bitcoin, XRP, and crypto.
Kalshi Traders See Bitcoin Reaching $82,500 in September
Despite the growing threat of tighter monetary policy, Kalshi’s Bitcoin market remains cautiously bullish.
Does a Fed Hike Derail Jake Claver’s $750 XRP Prediction?
The shifting rate outlook also creates an additional obstacle for Jake Claver’s prediction that XRP will exceed $750 before the end of 2026.
Claver has defended the forecast despite widespread criticism, writing on X that he had made a public bet on the outcome.
His scenario depends on several events occurring in rapid succession, including:
institutional investment
ETF-driven demand
tokenized financial-market activity
an extreme XRP supply shock
Common Sense Crypto host Rich said he did not expect XRP to reach $750 this year without “full-scale scarcity,” involving almost no XRP remaining on exchanges while demand simultaneously accelerates.
He argued that $100 could be more achievable if regulatory clarity and institutional adoption surged.
However, both targets remain highly speculative.
At approximately $1.37, XRP would need to rise around 54,600% to reach $750.
A September rate hike would work against the central assumption behind Claver’s forecast that vast amounts of liquidity will rapidly move into XRP.
Higher rates would make Treasury securities and cash more attractive, potentially reducing demand for the asset.
However, even under looser monetary policy, XRP would still require an unprecedented combination to approach such a massive valuation.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
