Key Takeaways
- Ripple’s scheduled release of 1 billion XRP was offset by the return of 700 million XRP to escrow, limiting the net supply increase to 300 million XRP.
- SBI Holdings drew attention to Ripple’s valuation of approximately ¥6.6 trillion ($41.2 billion).
- Motley Fool contributor Anthony Di Pizio said a repeat of XRP’s post-2018 collapse could take it to $0.18.
XRP’s future price is once again the subject of fierce debate, as bearish and bullish predictions surge despite sharply conflicting signals following Ripple’s latest scheduled token release.
The company unlocked 1 billion XRP at the beginning of August, but 700 million tokens were returned to escrow, leaving a net increase of approximately 300 million XRP outside the lock-up system.
Meanwhile, Japanese financial giant SBI Holdings reiterated its confidence in Ripple during its first-quarter earnings presentation, highlighting an approximately $41.2 billion valuation.
Ripple Unlocks 1 Billion XRP
Ripple completed its programmed monthly release of 1 billion XRP on Aug. 1.
On-chain reports said 700 million XRP was placed into new escrow contracts in two transactions totaling 200 million and 500 million XRP.
The scheduled release then took place in three tranches of 500 million, 300 million, and 200 million XRP.
The order of the transactions was unusual because the 700 million XRP was locked before the monthly billion-token release was completed.
However, the economic result was broadly consistent with Ripple’s recent pattern: only about 300 million additional XRP remained outside escrow.
Released XRP can be held, used for Ripple’s operations, distributed to partners or liquidity providers, or later returned to escrow.
What Is Ripple’s XRP Escrow?
Ripple introduced the escrow system to make the release of its large XRP reserves more predictable.
In 2017, the company locked 55 billion XRP into 55 on-ledger contracts, each containing 1 billion tokens.
The contracts were designed to expire monthly, with unused XRP placed at the end of the escrow queue.
The XRP still exists, but it cannot be transferred until the conditions set out in the relevant contract are met.
SBI Reaffirms Ripple XRP Bet
SBI Holdings addressed the weakness in crypto markets during its first-quarter earnings presentation.
The Japanese group said its crypto business remained subdued as investors awaited progress on the US CLARITY Act.
The segment recorded a ¥1.4 billion pretax loss, although institutional market maker B2C2 remained profitable.
An SBI executive said XRP’s price appeared “sluggish” as if the market were waiting to see whether the legislation would pass.
The presentation also highlighted Ripple’s $41.2 billion valuation. Ripple was valued at $40 billion in a $500 million investment announced in November 2025.
SBI’s comments are significant for XRP.
The group has worked with Ripple for a decade, operates SBI Ripple Asia, and has helped expand Ripple-linked products in Japan.
Motley Fool Contributor Warns XRP Could Collapse to $0.18
The bearish end of the debate was set out by Motley Fool contributor Anthony Di Pizio in a July 19 analysis.
Di Pizio argued that XRP continued to face structural obstacles despite Ripple’s progress in cross-border payments.
Banks can use parts of Ripple’s payment infrastructure without holding XRP, while fiat currencies and stablecoins can provide alternative settlement assets.
He also argued that XRP’s function as a bridge currency did not automatically create long-term demand.
Di Pizio based his $0.18 scenario on XRP’s previous market cycle.
After the token’s 2018 peak, it lost approximately 95% of its value by mid-2020.
Applying the same decline to the $3.65 level he used for XRP’s 2025 peak produces a price of roughly $0.18.
“I think the token will be trading well below $1 five years from now,” he wrote.
Could XRP Still Surge to $21 or $152?
Other analysts have issued considerably more bullish projections.
In June 2025, technical analyst Javon Marks argued that XRP’s long-term chart resembled the structure that appeared before its historic 2017 rally.
“$XRP can be setting up here to deliver its next wave up towards the 1.618 Fib Level,” Marks wrote on X.
Marks said the breakout could extend by more than 800% to approximately $21.
He argued that the move might not stop there.
If XRP repeated the structure of its previous long-term breakout, Marks said it could eventually reach the 2.272 Fibonacci extension above $152.
Fibonacci extensions are charting tools used to identify potential targets after an asset moves beyond its previous range. However, they cannot determine whether the buying pressure required to reach those levels will materialize.
Marks’ forecast relied on similarities between two long-term formations. The first preceded XRP’s explosive rally in 2017, while the second developed before its 2024 breakout.
The projection, therefore, assumed that XRP would broadly repeat its earlier price cycle.
That has not happened so far.
XRP traded near $2.20 to $2.50 when Marks published the analysis. It climbed to approximately $3.65 the following month but failed to continue toward $21 and subsequently reversed.
At approximately $1.07, XRP is now trading at roughly half the level seen when Mark issued the forecast.
The Path to $0.18
From a current price of $1.08, a decline to $0.18 would represent a further loss of approximately 83.3%.
It would also place XRP 95.1% below the $3.65 peak used in Di Pizio’s analysis, almost perfectly repeating the post-2018 collapse on which his scenario is based.
At the current circulating supply of approximately 62.5 billion tokens, a price of $0.18 would imply a market capitalization of roughly $11.3 billion.
Technically, sellers would first have to break the recent $1.05 low and the psychologically important $1 level.
XRP would then need to lose a series of lower support levels rather than fall directly to $0.18 in a single move.
The Path to $21 and $152
A rise from $1.08 to $21 would require a gain of approximately 1,844%, meaning XRP would have to increase to more than 19 times its current price.
Based on today’s circulating supply, $21 would imply a market capitalization of approximately $1.31 trillion.
Its fully diluted value, using the fixed maximum supply of 100 billion XRP, would reach $2.1 trillion.
The $152 extension would require an even more extreme transformation.
From $1.08, XRP would need to rise by almost 14,000%, or more than 140 times.
At today’s circulating supply, that would give the token a market capitalization of approximately $9.5 trillion and a fully diluted value of $15.2 trillion.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
