Key Takeaways
- Matt Hougan’s $500 trillion DeFi thesis prompted a bullish $398.88 XRP call from analysts.
- Cryptoinsightuk believes XRP’s historically oversold weekly RSI could support a run toward $11.
- XRP at $11 would imply a $689 billion market cap, while $398.88 would imply a $25 trillion market cap.
XRP bulls are circulating two dramatically different price scenarios as the token trades near the psychologically important $1 mark: a technically driven rally to $11 and an ultra-bullish surge to $398.88.
The first case is based on liquidity clusters, potential short liquidations, and a rare weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading.
The second comes from applying a 5% market-share assumption to a hypothetical $500 trillion crypto economy.
Matt Hougan’s DeFi Comments Prompt $398.88 XRP Prediction
The most eye-catching XRP target followed comments from Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan about the potential scale of decentralized finance.
In a post on X, Hougan argued that investors are making two compounding mistakes when valuing DeFi applications.
First, he said the market is treating these platforms as if they are limited to the roughly $2 trillion crypto sector, when their real addressable market could be the estimated $500 trillion global asset market.
Second, he argued that investors assume DeFi protocols have already maximized fee generation, even though, in his view, they are only beginning to explore their pricing power.
XRP commentator Chad Steingraber took the $500 trillion figure and applied it to XRP’s price.
His scenario assumes that crypto eventually reaches a combined market capitalization of $500 trillion and that XRP maintains a 5% market share.
That would give XRP a market value of $25 trillion and, based on about 62.67 billion circulating tokens, a price of approximately $398.88 per token.
Possible XRP Price Run Toward $11?
A separate, comparatively near-term bullish case comes from trader Cryptoinsightuk, who highlighted three features on XRP’s charts: overhead liquidity, a potential short squeeze, and an unusually weak weekly RSI.
According to the trader’s liquidity analysis, XRP would need to gain about 197% to reach the first major liquidity pools above its current price.
A wider sweep could extend the move to roughly 330%.
From a starting point near $1, those gains would correspond to prices around $2.97 and $4.30, respectively.
The trader also estimated that a move to $1.48 could liquidate approximately $727 million of leveraged XRP short positions.
“All I’m going to be doing is screaming bullish,” the trader said of a scenario in which XRP first sweeps the remaining liquidity below its price.
The second part of the $11 thesis rests on XRP’s weekly RSI.
Cryptoinsightuk previously flagged that the indicator had entered oversold territory for only the second time in XRP’s history.
The analyst calculated that XRP rose about 1,085% from that earlier weekly RSI signal to its subsequent local high.
Repeating a move of similar magnitude to the recent low would put XRP near $11.
“I’m not saying this is definitely going to happen,” the trader cautioned.
What Would Need to Happen for XRP to Reach $11 or $398.88?
The two targets require very different sequences of events.
XRP Price to $11?
For the technical case to strengthen, XRP would first need to defend or quickly reclaim the $1 region, then push through $1.48 with sufficient volume to trigger the anticipated short squeeze.
It would also need sustained spot buying after the forced-liquidation impulse fades.
A weekly bullish RSI divergence would add evidence that a durable bottom is forming.
From there, XRP would need to clear the overhead liquidity zones identified around the 197%-330% rally range, break its previous all-time high near $3.84, and establish that former resistance as support.
Reaching $11 would ultimately require a new price-discovery phase backed by broad crypto-market strength and retail demand.
Based on the current circulating supply, $11 in XRP would imply a market capitalization of about $689 billion.
At the 100 billion-token maximum supply, its fully diluted valuation would be $1.1 trillion. That is an enormous increase from current levels.
XRP Price to $398.88?
At the current circulating supply, $398.88 XRP implies a market capitalization of approximately $25 trillion, nearly 400 times its present valuation.
To support a valuation of that size, XRP would likely have to become a major piece of global financial infrastructure rather than benefit from a crypto bull market.
The XRP Ledger would need to capture a meaningful share of tokenized assets and cross-border settlement.
Just as importantly, that activity would have to create sustained demand to hold or lock XRP.
The scenario would also require broad regulatory acceptance and enough long-term demand to absorb tokens entering the circulating supply.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
