Bitrue found XRP gained over 90 days in 12 of 17 oversold cases, with a median return of 9.1%. | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
XRP gained over 90 days in 12 of 17 historical oversold cases, with a median return of 9.1%.
Recoveries often involved further losses: the median deepest decline within those windows reached 21.8%.
Bitrue identifies $1.1803 as a recovery confirmation level, while a break below $1.0365 could signal further weakness.
XRP traded higher 90 days after an oversold signal in 12 of 17 historical cases, according to the Bitrue Research Institute, offering a potential precedent for recovery as the token faces renewed selling pressure.
The exchange’s research arm found a median 90-day gain of 9.1% after those signals, compared with 3% across all eligible trading days.
However, the report cautions that recoveries often followed further declines and that current trading volumes have yet to confirm accumulation.
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It defined an oversold event as the first day on which the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) closed below 35, with signals separated by at least 10 days.
The study identified 18 events, including 17 with a complete 90-day follow-up window.
XRP finished higher after 90 days in 70.6% of those cases, exceeding the 53.5% positive-return frequency across all eligible days.
XRP/USDT since late August, Bitrue AI levels and 2026 volume by price. | Credit: Bitrue Research Institute
Shorter periods produced mixed results. After 30 days, XRP had gained in 11 of 18 cases, with a median return of 2.6%. At 60 days, only half the observations showed gains, and the median increase narrowed to 0.5%.
The path also involved substantial volatility. Within the 90-day windows, the median deepest decline reached 21.8%, while the median highest gain reached 32.5%. These figures measure extremes during each period, rather than closing returns.
Four of the five negative 90-day outcomes occurred between October 2025 and January 2026, illustrating how a broader downturn can overwhelm an oversold reading.
Current Indicators Show Selling Pressure Still Dominates
XRP traded around $1.10 on Bitrue on the morning of Nov. 9, approximately 55.2% below its one-year high of $2.5808.
Bitrue’s daily RSI reading stood at 32.3, below the study’s oversold threshold. Its AI trading system placed the four-hour RSI at 24, indicating particularly intense recent selling.
Oversold conditions alone do not establish that a bottom has formed, however.
The report’s 20-day ratio of volume on rising days to volume on falling days stood at 0.45, meaning declining sessions attracted more than twice as much volume.
XRP’s change 90 days after each oversold reading, 2023-2026. | Credit: Bitrue Research Institute
On-balance volume also fell by approximately 510 million XRP over 20 days. Average daily trading volume over the latest 30 days reached 82.2 million USDT, below the 2026 average of 127 million USDT.
Bitrue identifies several potential confirmation signals: a sustained volume ratio above one, improving on-balance volume, and a daily close above $1.1803.
However, the volume ratio crossing above one alone preceded a higher price 30 days later in only 41.7% of historical cases. The institute therefore treats these indicators as a combined checklist.
Base Building Could Precede a Sustained XRP Rebound
The report places XRP in a transitional market state, with sellers retaining the stronger directional signal.
Across 139 historically similar days, a confirmed downtrend emerged first within 10 days in 49.6% of observations. A trading range formed first in 43.9%, suggesting stabilization frequently preceded recovery.
Bitrue’s current working range spans $1.0365 to $1.1803. Holding that band while directional momentum weakens would fit its base-building scenario.
Share of 2026 entry days on which XRP stayed inside the band, by holding period. | Credit: Bitrue Research Institute
A stronger recovery would involve a daily close above the upper boundary alongside improving volume and directional indicators. Above that, the report highlights $1.32-$1.48, where approximately 46.9% of its estimated 2026 trading volume occurred.
Conversely, a daily close below $1.0365 with strengthening downward momentum would support an extension of the decline, bringing $1 and the 2026 low of $0.93 into focus.
The findings rely on a single exchange and a small sample of events. They describe historical tendencies rather than establish the probability or timing of XRP’s next recovery.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Giuseppe Ciccomascolo began his career as an investigative journalist in Italy, where he contributed to both local and national newspapers, focusing on various financial sectors.
Upon relocating to London, he worked as an analyst for Fitch's CapitalStructure and later as a Senior Reporter for Alliance News. In 2017, Giuseppe transitioned to covering cryptocurrency-related news, producing documentaries and articles on Bitcoin and other emerging digital currencies. He also played a pivotal role in establishing the academy for a cryptocurrency exchange website. Crypto remained his primary area of interest throughout his tenure as a writer for ThirdFloor.
