Key Takeaways
- Ripple has secured full MiCA authorization in Luxembourg.
- Finance Magnates analyst Damian Chmiel warned XRP could eventually fall to $0.29 if it loses the $1 level.
- Not all analysts share the bearish view.
XRP has come under renewed bearish scrutiny after analysts warned the token could fall as low as $0.29, despite Ripple securing a major regulatory milestone that expands its business across Europe.
Ripple Expands Across Europe With MiCA Approval
Ripple said it has received authorization from Luxembourg’s Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework.
The authorization follows preliminary approval announced in June and allows Ripple to offer its regulated crypto payments services across all 30 countries in the European Economic Area.
The company said the approval makes its end-to-end crypto payments platform available to financial institutions, corporates and businesses throughout the region.
“This CASP authorisation means Ripple enters the post-transitional MiCA era fully compliant and ready to scale,” Cassie Craddock, Ripple’s Managing Director for the UK and Europe, said in a statement.
“The institutions we work with across Europe are looking to build their digital assets services alongside regulated partners, and Ripple is licensed and ready to meet that demand.”
Ripple said the authorization adds to more than 75 regulatory licenses it holds globally and complements its existing European electronic money institution license.
Analyst Warns XRP Price Could Fall as Low as $0.29
Despite Ripple’s regulatory progress, some market analysts believe macroeconomic forces remain the dominant driver of XRP’s price.
Damian Chmiel, senior analyst and editor at Finance Magnates, said XRP’s recent weakness reflected a market-wide liquidity event rather than token-specific developments.
“The June decline was a broad-market event, not an XRP story,” Chmiel said.
“Bitcoin fell roughly 20% on the month and slipped below $59,000, and Ethereum, Solana and BNB dropped with it. When the largest tokens fall together, the selling reflects liquidity rather than any single asset.”
Chmiel said four factors are currently weighing on XRP:
- The broader crypto selloff
- Weaker institutional sentiment following Strategy’s roughly $216 million Bitcoin sale
- Delays to the US CLARITY Act
- Dependence on Bitcoin’s direction
Based on those factors, Chmiel outlined downside targets of $0.67, $0.47 and ultimately $0.29 should XRP lose the psychologically important $1 level.
He contrasted that outlook with more optimistic long-term forecasts, arguing they depend on catalysts that have yet to materialize.
Bearish XRP Price Outlook Follows Positive Ripple Developments
The latest bearish forecasts come despite several recent positive developments surrounding Ripple and the XRP ecosystem.
Earlier this month, Ripple announced it would match donations made to the Call of Duty Endowment, a nonprofit organization that helps military veterans secure civilian employment, with XRP contributions of up to $10,000.
The initiative formed part of Ripple’s “Giving 4th” campaign, which encourages charitable giving around US Independence Day.
Ripple invited supporters to donate using cash, stocks, XRP or its US dollar-pegged stablecoin RLUSD, with the company matching eligible donations in XRP.
The Call of Duty Endowment says it has helped place more than 165,000 veterans into employment and aims to reach 200,000 placements by 2030.
Santiment Data Shows XRP Holders at Record Losses
The cautious sentiment also follows bearish on-chain data published by blockchain analytics platform Santiment at the beginning of the month.
Santiment said XRP holders were experiencing the deepest average unrealized losses recorded across both short- and long-term timeframes in the token’s history.
The firm said XRP’s 30-day Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio had fallen to approximately 45%, while the 365-day MVRV ratio dropped to around -47%.
“When combined, XRP has NEVER shown lower average returns across these timeframes in its 12-year trading history,” Santiment wrote on X.
The analytics firm said the data reflected exceptionally weak investor sentiment.
“This tells us fear and frustration are extremely stretched right now,” Santiment said.
Although Santiment acknowledged XRP could still decline further, it argued that historically, such periods of maximum pessimism have often preceded stronger long-term opportunities.
Not All Analysts Are Bearish on XRP
Other market commentators remain optimistic about XRP’s longer-term prospects.
Motley Fool analyst Dominic Basulto recently argued Ripple’s continued expansion into areas such as tokenization and enterprise blockchain infrastructure could eventually support a significant recovery.
“Things could be about to turn around for XRP,” Basulto wrote.
“Investors will need to be patient, but XRP has the potential to soar in value within the next three years.”
Basulto said financial institutions increasingly view blockchain-based infrastructure as “easier, cheaper, and faster” than traditional payment systems.
He also pointed to other ambitious forecasts circulating within the crypto industry.
“A new XRP price target, for example, is $27,” he wrote.
“And some ultra-bullish analysts even think XRP might hit $100 soon.”
However, Basulto cautioned that XRP’s large circulating supply makes such valuations difficult to justify under current market conditions.
“The math really doesn’t work right now for double-digit price predictions,” he wrote.
Is a Fall to $0.29 XRP Price Likely?
A decline to $0.29 from XRP’s current price of around $1.08 would represent a drop of roughly 73%.
For that scenario to unfold, several negative catalysts would likely need to occur simultaneously.
First, Bitcoin would probably need to suffer another major decline.
Second, US regulatory momentum would likely need to deteriorate further.
Third, institutional demand would need to weaken materially.
Although spot XRP exchange-traded funds have recorded several consecutive weeks of net inflows, these flows would likely need to reverse before a dramatic move down.
Finally, technical support around $1.05, $1.00 and subsequent lower levels would need to fail.
CoinMarketCap’s market analysis identifies the $1.05-$1.07 region as XRP’s first major support zone, warning that a sustained break below it could open the door to a retest of June’s low near $1.01.
While the $0.29 prediction has attracted attention because of its severity, it remains an extreme downside scenario.
In the near term, most analysts are instead watching whether XRP can hold above the $1.05-$1.07 support area.
If buyers defend that range, the probability of a collapse toward $0.29 would diminish significantly.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
