An analyst says Bitcoin's logarithmic growth suggests a $1 million price target is the next natural 10x milestone. Is he right? | Credit: CCN.com
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin whale wallets are surging despite weak price action.
Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying hasn’t triggered a breakout.
Analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s path back to $100,000.
Bitcoin whale wallets have climbed sharply over the past year, even as prices remain volatile and sentiment among smaller traders weakens, adding to renewed debate over whether institutional accumulation could eventually drive the crypto back toward $100,000.
Despite the moves, Bitcoin’s price remains volatile, raising concern that institutional accumulation may eventually push it back above $100,000.
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Data from the blockchain analytics platform Santiment showed the number of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has risen to 20,229, up 11.2% from 18,191 a year earlier.
At current market prices, those holdings are worth roughly $7.7 million per wallet.
📈 The amount of wallets holding at least 100 Bitcoin has risen to 20,229. This is a +11.2% increase compared to the 18,191 wallets holding at least this level a year ago.
🐳 This is a significant long-term trend because wallets of at least this size (currently ~$7.7M or more)… pic.twitter.com/FAlHLnD71K
— Santiment Intelligence (@SantimentData) May 18, 2026
The increase suggests that larger investors have continued accumulating Bitcoin despite repeated market pullbacks and periods of heavy selling pressure.
Santiment said the trend was notable because growth in large-holder wallets persisted even during phases when retail traders appeared increasingly fearful.
Historically, rising concentrations of large holders have been interpreted by crypto traders as a signal of confidence in Bitcoin’s future value.
Strategy’s $2 Billion Purchase
The rise in whale accumulation comes as Michael Saylor’s Strategy intensified its own Bitcoin buying campaign through another multibillion-dollar acquisition.
The company recently raised about $2.03 billion through stock sales conducted under multiple at-the-market programs before deploying roughly $2.01 billion to purchase an additional 24,869 BTC.
Strategy bought the tokens at an average price of about $80,985 each, lifting its total Bitcoin holdings to more than 843,000 BTC.
Bitcoin Price Weakness Persists Despite Large Purchases
However, Bitcoin prices have struggled to respond to the aggressive buying activity.
Bitcoin has remained under pressure in recent sessions, trading well below previous highs despite continued accumulation by corporate buyers and long-term holders.
On-chain data has also pointed to a broader increase in long-term holding behavior.
CryptoQuant data cited by CCN analyst Victor Olanrewaju showed Bitcoin’s long-term holder supply has climbed back to roughly 15.26 million BTC, with more than 316,000 BTC added over the past month.
Analysts generally view rising long-term holder supply as bullish because it suggests more coins are moving into wallets unlikely to sell in the near term.
Adam Livingston: Strategy’s Buying Is Small Relative to Market Volume
Some crypto participants argued that Strategy’s acquisitions, while headline-grabbing, represent only a small fraction of weekly bitcoin trading activity.
Author and Bitcoin commentator Adam Livingston pushed back against complaints from traders questioning why prices were not surging after Strategy’s latest purchase.
“Strategy just bought about 25,000 coins,” Livingston wrote on X, estimating that reported spot BTC trading volume currently averages around 3 million BTC per week across major market trackers.
"HOW IS THE BITCOIN PRICE DROPPING WITH SAYLOR BUYING SO MUCH?!?!?" 😡😡😡😡
The emotions from the crybabies are on full blast today.
Good heavens. Let me break it down for you.
The reported spot BTC volume is roughly 3.0 million BTC per week right now.
“25,000 BTC is about 0.82% of 3.04 million BTC weekly spot volume,” he added.
He argued that the scale of global trade makes it difficult for a single buyer to raise prices immediately.
Other users on X challenged Livingston’s comparison, saying Strategy’s over-the-counter purchases differ from retail-driven exchange activity.
“Strategy buy OTC which is a totally different market to retail which Binance control. Two markets, two prices, different supply and demand,” one user wrote.
Can Bitcoin Price Return to $100,000?
Despite the accumulation trends, some market analysts remain skeptical that Bitcoin will revisit $100,000 anytime soon.
Motley Fool analyst David Jagielski said Bitcoin’s outlook still depends heavily on broader macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments.
“Bitcoin is a speculative asset, and thus, a lot will hinge on the outlook for the crypto markets,” Jagielski wrote.
He said that lower interest rates could support demand for risk assets, while persistent inflation and higher borrowing costs could continue to weigh on prices.
“It’s difficult to determine where Bitcoin may go since a lot ultimately depends on government actions,” he added.
Adding: “While Bitcoin might one day get back to $100,000, I don’t think that’ll happen anytime soon.”
It comes shortly after crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin could eventually revisit levels below $60,000 and potentially fall toward $40,000 later this cycle as macroeconomic pressures persist.
“My guess, unfortunately, is that the bear market is unlikely to be over,” Cowen said during an appearance on the Mr. M Podcast.
Cowen argued that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle structure still points to continued weakness into late 2026.
Despite the bearish outlook, Cowen acknowledged that even a drop toward $40,000 would still represent a smaller correction than Bitcoin experienced in previous bear markets, which saw drawdowns exceeding 70% to 90%.
Bitcoin Price Bulls Remain
VanEck head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel argued last week that Bitcoin remains undervalued relative to gold and equity markets.
He suggested the crypto could climb to around $160,000 if it regains historical valuation relationships tied to the so-called Buffett Indicator.
“Bitcoin looks cheap,” Sigel wrote on X.
Bitcoin looks cheap. If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we're looking at $160k, and that's just catching up to where equities already are. pic.twitter.com/9sYkwg9Ngg
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) May 11, 2026
“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160,000, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are,” he added.
The comments came shortly after Sigel said in a CNBC interview that Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years.
“We think this asset’s gonna reach a million dollars over the next several years,” Sigel said, describing such a scenario as VanEck’s “base case.”
Last month, investor Mike Alfred directly rejected Benjamin Cowen’s prediction that Bitcoin could revisit levels below $60,000.
“You’re going to be wrong this time. Sorry buddy,” Alfred wrote in response on X.
Alfred has repeatedly argued that current market conditions do not resemble a traditional crypto bear cycle,
“You can’t have a real bear market and crypto winter without an actual bull market,” Alfred said in a separate April post.
You can't have a real bear market and crypto winter without an actual bull market. Until you see real unadulterated exuberance, no bear. Simple stuff but so many people got fooled this time. Pure devastation. They will be chasing hard in the coming months as everything rips.
“Until you see real unadulterated exuberance, no bear.”
He added that many investors had been “fooled” by recent price weakness and warned they may end up “chasing hard in the coming months as everything rips.”
Others also pointed to tightening Bitcoin supply and growing institutional accumulation as potential catalysts for a sharp upside move.
Joe Burnett, director of market research at Unchained, suggested Bitcoin could be approaching a major supply squeeze.
“I’m beginning to think we’re on the cusp of the largest BTC price squeeze of all time,” Burnett wrote on X in April.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
