Benjamin Cowen has reiterated his belief that Bitcoin's price could fall further. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin’s price could still have further to fall.
The famed analyst listed five reasons why Bitcoin’s price could have a long way to go until it reaches its bottom.
His core thesis remains tied to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle structure.
Famed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has warned Bitcoin may still face another major leg lower this year.
Speaking on the Mr. M Podcast with Maurizio Pedrazzoli Grazioli, Cowen said Bitcoin could revisit and break below the $40,000 level before eventually forming a cycle low later in 2026.
“I would argue that the most likely outcome eventually … we kind of come back down and sort of test these prior lows at $60,000, and I would say that there’s a good chance we’ll go below 60,” Cowen said.
The analyst, known for his macro-cycle Bitcoin models, outlined several reasons why he believes the market has not yet fully bottomed.
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Four-Year Cycle Still Points To Bitcoin Price Weakness Into October
Cowen said his core thesis remains tied to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle structure, arguing that midterm years have historically produced prolonged weakness before a new expansion phase begins.
“I’m mostly in the time-based capitulation camp,” he said.
“I think we need to give it towards October before I really start to think the market might turn around.”
According to Cowen, the current setup resembles the pattern seen in 2018 and 2019, when Bitcoin continued drifting lower well after the initial breakdown.
“My guess, unfortunately, is that the bear market is unlikely to be over,” he said, adding that Bitcoin could find a final low “probably in October,” though he noted the timing could vary by “plus or minus a month or two.”
He also linked Bitcoin’s eventual bottom to broader weakness in equities.
“I think that we will likely see Bitcoin find a low later this year, and I think that low will correspond to weakness in the stock market,” Cowen said.
Historical Bear Market Drawdowns Suggest a Lower Bitcoin Price
Reviewing previous cycles, he noted that Bitcoin suffered drawdowns of roughly 94%, 87%, 84% and 77% in prior bear markets.
“If Bitcoin were to drop to $40,000, that is about a 68% drop from the high,” he said.
“You would still have diminishing losses. If we only have a 68% drop, that is still the best bear market we’ve ever had.”
Cowen said investors may underestimate how severe Bitcoin corrections historically become, especially during post-bull market resets.
“For me, I look at this and say, look, I mean, this is a completely normal drop for Bitcoin,” he added.
He also compared Bitcoin’s spot ETF launch cycle to the launch of thematic equity ETFs during prior speculative peaks.
“Oftentimes you will retest those levels,” he said, referencing the January ETF approval zone around $48,000.
Macro Conditions Remain Unfavorable for Crypto
Cowen repeatedly pointed to macroeconomic conditions as a major reason he expects continued downside pressure.
“We’re already seeing inflation come in hot,” he said.
He described the current economy as hinged on slowing labor-market momentum and recession risks.
“The macro is really unfavorable,” Cowen said.
Adding: “The labor market — there’s not a lot of layoffs, but it’s hard to find a job. People aren’t really quitting their jobs; there’s not a lot of job openings.”
Cowen added that while he expects a recession eventually, the absence of a full global downturn so far means Bitcoin’s broader cycle structure may still remain intact.
“I think we will have a recession at the end of the business cycle,” he said.
“But as long as we don’t have a global recession … then I think you just argue that the four-year cycle remains intact.”
Bitcoin Yet To Reach Traditional Bear-Market Lows?
Cowen also pointed to on-chain valuation indicators that historically marked prior cycle bottoms.
According to him, Bitcoin has historically traded below both its realized price and balance price during major bear markets.
“Right now the realized price is $54,000,” he said.
“Historically, we go below that. I don’t see why we couldn’t go into the 40s.”
He added that Bitcoin’s balance price currently sits below $40,000.
“We normally go below that as well,” Cowen said. “I almost wonder if the most likely outcome is to find a low between $30,000 and $40,000.”
Such a move, he said, would likely create an extremely fearful market environment but could ultimately present a long-term opportunity.
“If we go all the way down to $30,000 to $40,000, it’s going to be really scary in that environment,” he said.
“But that might actually be a great buying opportunity.”
Weak Retail Demand
Another key concern for Cowen is the absence of strong retail participation despite Bitcoin’s rally from its 2022 lows.
“Bitcoin went from $15,000 to $126,000, and retail never came back,” he said.
Cowen argued that high interest rates and restrictive monetary policy have limited speculative appetite across crypto markets.
“Monetary policy has been unfavorable for crypto,” he said.
“Until you get much looser monetary policy, until you get much lower rates, it’s hard to imagine that the industry as a whole is going to have a major bull run.”
He added that any future liquidity-driven rally may first require broader financial stress.
“The problem is, in order to get all that stuff, you almost have to have a crisis to get there,” Cowen said.
As a result, he said Bitcoin remains the safest relative asset within crypto during periods of macro uncertainty.
Cowen Previously Warned Bitcoin May Have Already Peaked
Cowen’s latest comments build on warnings he made earlier this year that Bitcoin’s 2025 highs may already represent the cycle peak.
In a January macro risk memo, Cowen argued the market appeared to be entering a prolonged consolidation and “digestion” phase rather than preparing for a new breakout cycle.
He said the rally differed sharply from the euphoric peaks seen in 2017 and 2021 because retail speculation never fully returned.
“Unlike 2017 or 2021, this cycle topped on apathy rather than euphoria,” Cowen wrote at the time.
Cowen said the structure more closely resembled Bitcoin’s 2019 rally, when prices climbed sharply but failed to trigger widespread speculative participation.
He also warned that apathy-driven peaks often produce prolonged, uneven declines instead of rapid capitulation events.
“Apathy-driven declines tend to be choppier and more uneven, characterized by repeated countertrend rallies rather than a single capitulation,” he wrote.
Despite his bearish near-term outlook, Cowen maintained that Bitcoin’s longer-term cycle framework remains intact.
“Bear markets make fools of both bulls and bears,” he said on the podcast.
“It’s all about respecting the cycle, not marrying a single asset class.”
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
