Another bullish Bitcoin prediction has dropped — not everyone is convinced. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
VanEck’s Matthew Sigel said Bitcoin’s price could climb to $160,000.
Sigel’s bullish outlook comes shortly after he predicted Bitcoin could reach $1 million within five years.
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has pushed back on aggressive Bitcoin forecasts.
Bitcoin is undervalued relative to gold and equity markets, according to VanEck’s head of digital assets research Matthew Sigel, who said the crypto could climb to $160,000 if it regains a historical valuation relationship tied to the so-called Buffett Indicator.
The comments come shortly after the executive predicted Bitcoin could reach $1 million in five years, a bullish forecast that drew some pushback within the community.
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“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160,000, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are.”
The comments come as Bitcoin trades near $81,000 while gold prices hover around record highs, leaving the current Bitcoin-to-gold ratio at roughly 17x.
Sigel argued that the ratio remains well below historical levels seen during periods when US equities traded at elevated valuations relative to gross domestic product.
A chart shared by Sigel compared the BTC/XAU ratio against the Buffett Indicator, which measures the total value of the US stock market relative to GDP.
Bitcoin looks cheap. If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we're looking at $160k, and that's just catching up to where equities already are. pic.twitter.com/9sYkwg9Ngg
— matthew sigel, recovering CFA (@matthew_sigel) May 11, 2026
It showed a widening divergence through 2025 and 2026, as equities climbed to 230% of GDP while Bitcoin lagged.
Some traders, however, questioned Bitcoin’s weaker performance in recent months despite broader optimism around digital assets.
“Wondering what is your take on the constant underperformance these last few months?” one X user asked.
“Other things in the market are more interesting right now,” Sigel responded.
At the time of reporting, Bitcoin trades at around $80,846, up around 13% in the last month.
However, it continues to trade 35.89% below its all-time high, and volatility is expected to remain elevated.
Debate Over Buffett Indicator Comparison
Sigel’s analysis sparked debate among market participants, with some traders arguing that comparisons between Bitcoin and the Buffett Indicator may not provide a reliable framework for valuing the cryptocurrency.
Some argued that Bitcoin’s price behavior remains driven by liquidity conditions rather than by traditional equity valuation metrics.
Others argued that gold’s recent rally and persistent strength in technology stocks may have distorted historical relationships between Bitcoin.
“It’s been left behind. Tech, commodities, energy…tough couple of years for BTC,” one X user wrote.
VanEck’s $1 Million Bitcoin Forecast
The latest remarks follow another bullish projection from Sigel earlier this month that Bitcoin could eventually reach $1 million within five years.
Speaking in a CNBC interview on May 6, Sigel said VanEck views Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation as its “base case.”
“We think this asset’s gonna reach a million dollars over the next several years,” Sigel said.
He added that a five-year timeline for Bitcoin reaching seven figures was “possible,” citing growing institutional adoption and rising interest from younger investors.
“We now have the first central bank buying Bitcoin for its reserves,” Sigel said.
Sigel compared Bitcoin adoption to the expansion of the video game sector, arguing that younger generations are increasingly likely to treat digital assets as long-term holdings.
“When you look at the demographic trends and the intentions of young investors to allocate to Bitcoin, it can be like the video game industry,” he said.
“People don’t quit Bitcoin,” he added.
Despite the optimistic outlook, Sigel acknowledged that Bitcoin remains highly volatile.
“There are no bailouts in Bitcoin, so there will be cycles along the way,” he said.
Peter Brandt Not Convinced
Bitcoin’s path to $1 million may take far longer than some bullish investors expect, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt, who said such valuations would likely require significant weakness in fiat currencies.
Speaking on Cointelegraph’s Chain Reaction program, Brandt said forecasts calling for Bitcoin to reach seven figures by 2030 were unrealistic under current economic conditions.
“2030, we don’t go to a million,” Brandt said.
The famed trader argued Bitcoin would need more than speculative momentum or institutional adoption to justify a move of that scale.
Instead, he said, such price levels would likely coincide with a steep decline in the purchasing power of major currencies.
“For Bitcoin to go to $1,000,000, that’s basically … a 10x move for fair value,” Brandt said.
He added that while Bitcoin could eventually reach that milestone, it would probably require broader changes to the global monetary system.
“We’ll have to see real destruction of fiat currencies before that happens,” he said.
Bitcoin Price Outlook
In the near term, analysts said Bitcoin’s price action remains constructive despite signs of slowing momentum ahead of key US inflation data.
Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, said Bitcoin was attempting to break out of a rising channel while remaining above the Ichimoku cloud, a technical indicator often used to gauge trend strength.
BTC/USD Daily Chart May 11 | Credit: TradingView
“The Ichimoku setup is constructive overall, with Bitcoin’s price above the cloud and the conversion/base lines curling upward, suggesting momentum is still favoring buyers,” Olanrewaju wrote.
He said a sustained move above $81,000 could open the door for a rally toward the next Fibonacci resistance near $89,400.
However, he cautioned that weakening momentum indicators could increase the risk of a pullback toward support near $69,900.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
