Can Bitcoin's price reach its ATH before 2028? | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
VanEck expects Bitcoin’s price to surpass its all-time high before 2028.
Siegel advises investors to gradually build Bitcoin positions before October.
Not everyone shares the optimism.
Matthew Siegel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, said he expects Bitcoin to trade above its previous all-time high price before 2028.
Speaking on the Wolf of All Streets podcast, Siegel said investors should continue building positions over the coming months while warning that sentiment remains fragile.
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VanEck’s Bitcoin Price Thesis: Three Reasons It Beats Its Previous ATH
Siegel said VanEck continues to respect Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, but believes the long-term investment case remains intact, provided several structural catalysts continue to develop.
“We’re now up to 22 countries that are either mining Bitcoin or holding it at the sovereign level. It basically goes up by like one or two countries a year,” Siegel said.
He argued that continued government participation would reinforce Bitcoin’s role as a strategic reserve asset.
Siegel added that only a reversal in that trend would force him to reconsider his outlook.
“If Bitcoin is not above its all-time high by probably Q1 2028, that forces maybe a thesis rethink. But otherwise just stay the course.”
The second catalyst is potential US government action on a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.
“The White House has been teasing some progress on Bitcoin strategic reserve now since Vegas, and that hasn’t occurred. That could be something,” he said.
Finally, Siegel pointed to improving market fundamentals, saying investors appear to be nearing seller exhaustion following months of heavy losses.
“We’ve also seen the older cohorts, kind of two-year-plus holders, have slowed down their selling. That’s another maybe hint of seller exhaustion.”
He added that realized losses remain historically elevated while downside positioning in options markets suggests investors remain extremely cautious.
“Puts are still really expensive versus calls by historical standards… realized losses are in the 90th percentile historically.”
Siegel Says Investors Should Build Positions Before October
Despite remaining constructive over the longer term, Siegel said he is not yet aggressively buying Bitcoin, preferring to wait for stronger evidence that the market has fully capitulated.
However, he told clients that gradually increasing exposure ahead of October could prove to be a sensible strategy.
“What I’ve been telling clients is that you want to have your full position by October,” he said.
Adding: “So putting in some type of time-based buying where you add a few basis points every month or so until we get into Q4, that seems like a reasonable strategy.”
Siegel also warned that several risks remain, including uncertainty surrounding US crypto legislation and the outcome of upcoming elections.
“The election is probably still out there… you could arguably say the front pages of the newspapers have not really grappled with what a blue sweep would mean for the pro-growth agenda, not to mention the crypto agenda.”
He added that institutional investors remain focused on regulatory clarity before expanding beyond Bitcoin.
“My conversations with institutions around altcoins especially is that the disclosure regime inside of CLARITY is really important.”
Traders Continue Betting on a Bitcoin Price Drop
Siegel’s bullish long-term outlook contrasts with positioning on prediction market Kalshi, where traders continue to assign significant odds to another major decline before the end of 2026.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
