Kalshi traders are betting on a price fall below $50,000. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Kalshi traders see rising downside risk.
Benjamin Cowen backs the four-year cycle.
Cowen still sees further downside.
Prediction market traders are increasingly betting that Bitcoin could revisit the $50,000 level before the end of 2026, even as the crypto attempts to stabilize following its sharp June selloff.
The renewed bearish positioning comes as widely followed crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen argues that Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle remains, suggesting the current market continues to follow previous bear-market patterns.
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On Kalshi, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $50,000 this year has climbed to around 49%, while traders continue to price in meaningful odds of an even deeper correction.
According to Kalshi data, traders currently assign:
66% probability that Bitcoin falls below $55,000
49% probability that it drops below $50,000
41% probability of falling below $45,000
30% probability that Bitcoin declines below $40,000
The market has attracted more than 51,000 forecasts and approximately $4.6 million in trading volume.
While prediction markets are not forecasts in the traditional sense, contract prices reflect what traders are collectively willing to pay based on their expectations of future outcomes.
The latest positioning follows a slight recovery in Bitcoin’s price, though analysts have warned that further downside is likely.
Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Remains Intact
The growing bearish sentiment coincides with renewed support for Bitcoin’s long-debated four-year market cycle from crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen.
In a post on X, Cowen said he had previously dismissed the theory before changing his view after repeated historical evidence.
“I did not always believe in the four year cycle for Bitcoin.”
“I used to think it was silly, and that the market had to be more complicated than that.”
Cowen said Bitcoin’s historical price action ultimately changed his opinion.
“But then the market proved me wrong. So I admitted I was wrong, learned from my mistakes, and became a better investor.”
He also criticized investors who continue to reject the pattern despite the latest downturn.
“This cycle, a lot of new Bitcoiners faded the four year cycle and relentlessly mocked anyone calling for the bear market.”
Cowen said the egos of these analysts and traders would likely cause them “to repeat the same mistakes in the future.”
In a follow-up post summarizing his latest video, Cowen said Bitcoin continues to exhibit the same four-year rhythm seen throughout its trading history.
He noted how the same bearish price moves have occurred during 2011, 2014, 2018, and 2022—while major bull markets have likewise aligned with Bitcoin’s halving cycle.
Tom Lee Says Bitcoin Has Broken the Four-Year Cycle
Cowen’s view contrasts with comments made by Fundstrat co-founder Tom Lee, who argued late last year that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may no longer accurately reflect market behavior.
Speaking at Binance Blockchain Week in December, Lee said he believes the market is entering a new phase.
“We’re going to shatter the Bitcoin four-year cycle.”
Lee argued that Bitcoin’s recent price action had already diverged from previous cycles, noting that the cryptocurrency rallied strongly earlier in the year before suffering a sharp reversal.
Tom Lee spoke at Binance Blockchain Week on Thursday, Dec. 4 | Source: DARKHORSE
“Crypto was up 36% until Oct. 10, and then it’s gone straight down.”
Rather than attributing the decline to Bitcoin’s historical halving cycle, Lee said the selloff appeared to be driven by broader market dynamics.
“I personally think it has a lot to do with de-leveraging.”
He compared the current environment to the period following the collapse of FTX, suggesting forced unwinding of leveraged positions had become a more important driver of prices than the four-year cycle itself.
Bitcoin Price Could Fall Into the $40,000 Range?
Cowen’s latest comments build on his May warnings that Bitcoin would fall below $40,000, when he argued Bitcoin had not yet completed its bear-market correction.
Speaking on the Mr. M Podcast, Cowen said he expected Bitcoin to revisit previous support levels before moving lower.
“I would argue that the most likely outcome eventually … we kind of come back down and sort of test these prior lows at $60,000, and I would say that there’s a good chance we’ll go below 60.”
His outlook was based largely on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle, which he argued has consistently produced prolonged periods of weakness before the next expansion phase.
“I’m mostly in the time-based capitulation camp.”
“I think we need to give it towards October before I really start to think the market might turn around.”
Cowen said the current market resembles the 2018-2019 bear market, when Bitcoin continued to decline for months after its initial breakdown.
“My guess, unfortunately, is that the bear market is unlikely to be over.”
He argued that a decline toward $40,000 would still be modest by historical standards.
“If Bitcoin were to drop to $40,000, that is about a 68% drop from the high.”
“You would still have diminishing losses. If we only have a 68% drop, that is still the best bear market we’ve ever had.”
Beyond historical price cycles, Cowen cited other deteriorating conditions as a catalyst for the weak BTC price, including:
Persistent inflation
Weakening labor market
Recession risks
He also pointed to Bitcoin’s realized price and balance price, metrics that have historically been breached during previous bear-market bottoms.
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The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
