- Bitcoin fell below $76,000 after the US Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.
- Veteran trader Peter Brandt previously predicted an Oct. 4 market bottom, potentially in the high-$40,000 range.
- Bitcoin must first lose a major support cluster near $71,000 before Brandt’s bearish scenario becomes technically credible.
Bitcoin’s price slipped below $76,000 on Wednesday, bringing veteran trader Peter Brandt’s warning of an October plunge into the high-$40,000s back into focus.
The world’s largest crypto traded near $75,877, its lowest level in almost four weeks, after losing nearly 4% during Tuesday’s session, according to CoinMarketCap.
Bitcoin has now surrendered most of its September recovery and sits roughly 40% below the record high of approximately $126,000 reached in October 2025.
Peter Brandt’s Oct. 4 Bitcoin Price Prediction
As CCN reported in July, Brandt made an unusually specific prediction that Bitcoin’s bear market would bottom on Oct. 4.
“I’ll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th. So we’ll see,” he said during an interview with Cointelegraph.
Brandt based the forecast partly on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle.
Previous bull markets have often peaked between 16 and 18 months after a halving, then entered a downturn lasting approximately one year.
Bitcoin’s latest record was set on Oct. 6, 2025, about 18 months after the April 2024 halving. A bottom in early October 2026 would therefore arrive almost exactly one year after the peak.
Brandt’s accompanying price scenario placed Bitcoin in the high-$40,000 range.
A fall to around $48,000 would represent a 62% peak-to-trough decline and require another drop of roughly 37% from current prices.
A fall all the way to $40,000 would require Bitcoin to lose approximately 47% from $76,000.
CLARITY Act Defeat Hits Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s latest decline accelerated after the Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act.
The procedural vote ended 49–50, leaving the legislation 11 votes short of the 60 required to overcome the Senate threshold and proceed.
Three Republican senators joined Democrats in opposing the motion.
Despite some bulls remaining, its failure forced markets to remove some of the regulatory optimism that had supported Bitcoin’s late-summer recovery.
Institutional demand also weakened.
US-spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded approximately $450 million in net outflows on Tuesday, reversing the previous session’s $160 million inflow, according to SoSoValue data cited by FXStreet.
The setback came as investors also await the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate decision.
What Stands Between Bitcoin and $40K Price?
Despite the deteriorating outlook, Bitcoin remains far above Brandt’s target and continues to trade above several important moving averages.
The 50-day exponential moving average sits near $73,567, while the 200-day EMA is close to $73,105.
The 100-day EMA provides additional support around $71,384, analysts said.
Together, those levels form a considerable demand zone between approximately $71,000 and $74,000.
However, Brandt is also not alone in identifying October as a potential turning point.
CCN previously reported that NYDIG modeled a historically based scenario in which Bitcoin falls to between $38,000 and $39,000 in early October.
Brandt Remains a Long-Term BTC Bull
Brandt’s short-term warning should not be confused with a permanently bearish view of Bitcoin.
The trader has predicted that Bitcoin could reach between $250,000 and $300,000 during its next major cycle in 2029.
However, with Oct. 4 less than three weeks away, his remarkably precise prediction is about to face its decisive test.
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
