Key Takeaways
- Peter Brandt predicts Bitcoin will bottom on Oct. 4, potentially after falling into the high-$40,000 range.
- NYDIG’s historical model targets $38,000–$39,000, while Michael Terpin expects a milder bottom near $57,000.
- AI models produced scenarios ranging from an already-recorded $57,700 low to a fall to $38,500.
Famed trader Peter Brandt has predicted that Bitcoin’s current bear market will bottom on Oct. 4, placing the potential turning point just 75 days away.
The forecast comes as several institutional researchers and market analysts have also identified October as a possible turning point, although their price predictions range from approximately $38,000 to $57,000.
CCN turned to three leading AI models to assess their views on how low Bitcoin could fall—and when.
Peter Brandt Says Bitcoin Will Bottom on October 4
Brandt made the unusually precise prediction during an interview with Cointelegraph.
“I’ll go out on a limb and say we bottom on October 4th. So we’ll see,” he said.
His forecast is based partly on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle.
Bitcoin reached its latest record high of approximately $126,000 on Oct. 6, 2025, around 18 months after the April 2024 halving.
Previous Bitcoin bull markets have frequently peaked between 16 and 18 months after a halving before entering a downturn lasting roughly one year.
If that pattern continues, a bottom in early October would arrive almost exactly 12 months after the latest peak.
An 80% decline from $126,000 would take Bitcoin close to $25,200, although Brandt did not explicitly predict a fall to that level.
His nearer-term downside scenario instead pointed toward the high-$40,000s, which would represent a peak-to-trough decline of approximately 62%.
Brandt also argued that market sentiment remained too resilient for a lasting bottom.
Despite his bearish near-term outlook, Brandt remains bullish over a longer horizon.
He has predicted that Bitcoin could reach between $250,000 and $300,000 during its next major cycle in 2029.
Other Bitcoin Bottom Predictions Target October
Brandt is not alone in identifying October as a critical month for Bitcoin.
In its latest quarterly review, NYDIG outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin falls to between $38,000 and $39,000 in early October.
The digital asset investment firm is based on the duration and severity of Bitcoin’s previous two major bear markets.
Those downturns lasted 363 and 376 days and produced losses of 84.3% and 77.6%, respectively.
Because Bitcoin’s corrections have generally become less severe, NYDIG modeled a shallower decline of approximately 70% from the $126,000 record. That would put the crypto close to $38,000.
However, the firm emphasized that the calculation was a historical scenario rather than its central forecast.
NYDIG said several on-chain indicators had not yet reached the extreme levels associated with previous cycle lows. It also warned that leveraged positions were rebuilding before a convincing recovery in underlying demand.
ChatGPT’s Base-Case Prediction
ChatGPT identified $49,500 as its base-case estimate for Bitcoin’s final bear-market low.
“My base case is a final Bitcoin low near $49,500 between late September and the middle of October,” ChatGPT said.
“That would represent a decline of approximately 61% from the $126,000 peak—large enough to clear excessive leverage without repeating the 77% to 84% collapses experienced during earlier cycles.”
The AI argued that a brief move below $50,000 could produce the capitulation Brandt believes is currently missing.
Falling through the psychologically important level could trigger stop-losses, forced liquidations and another deterioration in investor confidence.
However, the model expects institutional demand and greater market liquidity to prevent Bitcoin from remaining below $50,000 for an extended period.
“Bitcoin’s market is structurally larger than it was during previous crypto winters,” ChatGPT said.
“That does not prevent a sharp washout, but it makes another sustained 80% decline less convincing without a major financial or industry-specific crisis.”
Gemini’s Shallow-Bottom Scenario
In a more optimistic scenario, Gemini said Bitcoin may have already reached its lowest price during the July decline, at approximately $57,700.
“If ETF demand continues to recover and Bitcoin maintains support above $60,000, the July low could remain the lowest trade of the entire cycle,” the AI said.
“In that scenario, Oct. 4 would be closer to a confirmation date than the date of a new price low.”
Gemini said Bitcoin could trade between approximately $58,000 and $72,000 over the coming months, gradually exhausting sellers without producing another dramatic collapse.
A sustained recovery above $70,000, accompanied by stronger spot ETF inflows, would increase the likelihood that the bottom had already formed.
However, repeated failures around that level would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another decline.
“Time can complete a bear market even when price does not make a substantially lower low,” Gemini added.
“A prolonged period of sideways trading could produce the exhaustion Brandt expects without requiring Bitcoin to crash into the $40,000s.”
Claude Capitulation Scenario
Claude placed a deeper bear-market scenario near $38,500, broadly in line with NYDIG’s historical model.
The AI said such a decline would likely require more than ordinary market weakness.
“My severe downside scenario is a short-lived fall toward $38,500, representing a decline of approximately 69% from Bitcoin’s record high,” Claude said.
“That outcome would probably require a liquidation cascade combined with renewed ETF outflows, tighter monetary conditions or significant selling by large Bitcoin treasury holders.”
The model argued that the $38,000 to $40,000 range could attract value investors, as it would bring the current correction closer to the shallower pattern identified by NYDIG.
“Bitcoin can reach $38,500, but it probably needs a catalyst powerful enough to turn cautious holders into forced sellers,” it said.
“Without that catalyst, a bottom somewhere between $49,000 and $58,000 appears more defensible.”
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
