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Benjamin Cowen’s 60% Bitcoin Dominance Prediction Realized — Altseason Delayed

Published
Valdrin Tahiri
Published
By Valdrin Tahiri
Edited by Ryan James

Key Takeaways

  • The Bitcoin Dominance Rate (BTCD) finally reached 60% on Oct. 29.
  • The Altcoin Market Cap (ALTCAP) is breaking out from a channel.
  • Is there any hope left for the beginning of an altcoin season?

The Bitcoin Dominance rate finally moved above 60% on Oct. 30, validating the three-year prediction by well-known trader Benjamin Cowen. The high was made inside a confluence of Fibonacci resistances.

At the same time, the Altcoin market cap is breaking out from its descending parallel channel. What do these two signs mean for the possibility of an altseason? Let’s find out

Bitcoin Dominance Reaches 60%

The Bitcoin Dominance Chart has increased in a five-wave upward movement since September 2022. The increase led to a high of 60.12% on Oct. 28, the highest price in over 1,300 days.

Despite the upward movement, several bearish signs have developed, predicting a BTCD breakdown and decline.

The wave count is bearish. It suggests that BTCD is in the fifth and final wave of the upward movement (white). The fifth wave developed into an ending diagonal, as evidenced by the ascending wedge pattern. The sub-wave count is in black.

BTCD has also reached a confluence of Fibonacci resistances. It reached the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement resistance level, while sub-wave five had the same length as sub-wave one, making it likely the upward movement has ended.

BTCD Upward Movement
BTCD Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

Finally, technical indicators show weakness. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) have both generated bearish divergences (green), and the RSI has reached overbought territory.

Despite these bearish signs, Bitcoin’s dominance is still increasing. So, while a bearish trend reversal could be near, it has not started yet.

What Analysts are Saying

Cryptocurrency trader Benjamin Cowen has been the biggest proponent  of a BTCD increase to 60%. The prediction was finally realized on Oct. 29. He has been predicting this increase for nearly three years while also predicting an ETH/BTC decline.

He now believes that Ethereum has bottomed against Bitcoin, and BTCD will begin to fall soon.

Cryptocurrency investor and analyst VirtualBacon believes  that Global Net Liquidity is the best predictor of Altcoin season. More specifically, he states that Global Net Liquidity is inversely correlated with the Bitcoin Dominance Rate, and the increase in liquidity triggered altseason in the previous market cycle.

Altseason
Altcoin Market Cap | Credit: X 

EtherNasyonal posted a fractal  of the Altcoin Market Cap that shows the breakout from the current descending parallel channel will trigger a massive altseason, similar to how it did in 2020.

Let’s analyze the altcoin market cap chart to confirm the breakout.

Altcoin Market Cap Breakout

While the Altcoin market cap has made several attempts to break out from its descending parallel channel, the breakout has not yet been confirmed. Rather, ALTCAP made a breakout attempt last week, which was unsuccessful (black icon).

Even though ALTCAP did not break out, technical indicators and the wave count are both bullish. The wave count indicates ALTCAP has started its upward movement’s fifth and final wave.

The RSI and MACD also give positive readings. The RSI increased above 50, while the MACD made a bullish cross (black circles). Both are signs of a bullish trend.

Altcoin Market Cap
ALTCAP Weekly Chart | Credit: Valdrin Tahiri/TradingView 

If ALTCAP breaks out, the next target will be $1.61 trillion, nearly 70% above the current price.

However, this chart does not affect the BTCD decline since even if the ALTCAP breaks out, the Bitcoin price could increase even faster, maintaining the BTCD increase.

Mixed Altseason Signs

The Bitcoin dominance rate has reached 60%, as predicted by Benjamin Cowen.

While bearish signs are in place, a bearish trend reversal has not started yet. On the other hand, the Altcoin market cap looks ready for a breakout.

Disclaimer: The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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