Negotiations for the CLARITY Act have advanced — and Bitcoin's price is back in focus. | Source: CCN.
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Key Takeaways
Donald Trump has reportedly accepted CLARITY Act ethics restrictions.
Polymarket traders give the legislation a 43% chance of becoming law before the end of 2026.
FM Intelligence’s bullish scenario puts Bitcoin at up to $200,000, while Eric Balchunas said renewed ETF demand could cause “price explosions.”
President Donald Trump has agreed to the proposed ethics restrictions in the CLARITY Act, potentially removing one of the largest obstacles to the crypto market structure bill advancing through the Senate.
The reported breakthrough comes as lawmakers race to finalize the legislation before the Senate begins its five-week summer recess on Aug. 10.
However, the White House’s acceptance does not guarantee that the bill will pass, and Polymarket traders continue to put the likelihood of the legislation becoming law in 2026 at below 50%.
Despite the decline, analysts have argued that Bitcoin’s price could potentially reach $200,000 if the CLARITY Act passes, while a Bloomberg analyst argued “price explosions” could be on the horizon.
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Trump has reportedly accepted proposed ethics language that could restrict how senior government officials benefit financially from crypto, according to Republican Sen. Bernie Moreno.
“The president has agreed to the most aggressive ethics language in the history of the United States,” Moreno said, according to CNBC Washington correspondent Emily Wilkins.
On crypto – Moreno told me this evening that "The president has agreed to the most aggressive ethics language in the history of the United States."
"It’s up to Democrats whether they want to accept yes for an answer," he added.
Moreno said it was now up to Democrats to accept the proposal, adding that Republican and Democratic negotiators planned to meet on Tuesday.
Crypto in America host Eleanor Terrett separately reported on X that the White House had agreed to an ethics package and sent the proposed wording to several Senate Republicans.
The details remain unclear, while the updated version of the CLARITY Act had not been released at the time of writing.
🚨NEWS: I’m hearing from multiple industry sources that the White House has agreed on an ethics package for the Clarity Act and sent the language to certain Senate Republicans this afternoon.
It’s still unclear what the details of the agreement are (I’ve reached out for…
However, the development marks a potential breakthrough after conflict-of-interest protections became one of the most difficult remaining issues in the negotiations.
Democrats have demanded tighter restrictions on crypto holdings and business activity involving the president, vice president, members of Congress and other senior officials.
These concerns intensified following scrutiny of crypto investments and businesses connected to Trump and his family.
Meanwhile, Republicans have argued that the legislation already contains significant protections.
Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, meaning they would need at least seven Democratic votes to overcome the expected 60-vote procedural threshold.
Why Are the CLARITY Act’s Polymarket Odds Still Below 50%?
Despite the reported ethics breakthrough, Polymarket traders remained unconvinced that the legislation would complete its journey through Congress this year.
The prediction platform gave the CLARITY Act a 43% chance of becoming law in 2026 on Tuesday.
More than $2 million had been traded on the market.
The contract will resolve positively only if H.R. 3633 passes both chambers of Congress and is signed into law by Dec. 31.
The below-50% probability reflects the number of steps that remain rather than simply the likelihood of Senate approval.
Polymarket odds are still low. | Source: Polymarket
While Trump’s acceptance of the ethics language represents another step toward a possible Senate vote before lawmakers leave Washington for recess on August 10.
However, lawmakers must still release the revised text, secure sufficient Democratic support and find time for a floor vote.
Novogratz urged Republican senators to increase pressure on the White House while calling on Democrats to accept that a digital asset bill could not eliminate every form of government corruption.
The Clarity Act is essential for America’s future. We are down to “word smithing” around an ethics clause. US citizens don’t want politicians financially getting a better ‘edge’ than the common citizen has. Both Republicans and Democrats know this. They both see the polls.…
The research group assigned a 50% probability to its base-case range of between $95,000 and $130,000 over the following 12 months.
From Bitcoin’s current price of approximately $66,000, reaching those targets would require gains of around 44% and 97%, respectively.
FM Intelligence’s more optimistic scenario puts Bitcoin between $135,000 and $200,000, although the group assigned that outcome a lower probability of 25%.
While the CLARITY Act would not automatically produce that rally, its potential impact would come from establishing clearer rules for crypto exchanges and financial institutions.
However, its bearish scenario shows how another legislative collapse could restrict Bitcoin’s recovery.
FM Intelligence assigned a 25% probability to Bitcoin trading between $60,000 and $95,000 if the ethics dispute prevents the bill from securing the 60 Senate votes needed to advance.
That scenario also assumes the midterm campaign consumes the remaining legislative calendar, industry groups reject the final wording and Bitcoin ETFs record net outflows of between $5 billion and $15 billion.
Bitcoin ‘Price Explosion’?
The legislative breakthrough comes as Balchunas has drawn a comparison between Bitcoin ETFs and the volatile history of gold funds.
In an X post, the Bloomberg analyst argued that the 22-year history of gold ETFs could provide a roadmap for Bitcoin investors.
The SPDR Gold Trust launched in 2004 and briefly overtook the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust to become the world’s largest ETF in 2011.
However, the gold fund subsequently spent around eight years below that level before recovering.
IBIT briefly surpassed $100 billion in assets when Bitcoin reached its record high in October 2025 before declining alongside the crypto.
Balchunas said restricted supply meant a sudden increase in investor demand could produce “price explosions.”
However, he warned that demand could be “fickle and come in waves,” exposing investors to “spectacular gains, painful drawdowns” and prolonged recoveries.
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Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
