Key Takeaways
- CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju corrected his earlier claim that hedge funds had flipped net long, saying CFTC Total Reportables, not leveraged funds, are modestly net long.
- Leveraged funds remain net short about 36,200 BTC in standard CME futures, although that structural short has fallen roughly 50% over the past year.
- Their Micro Bitcoin futures position is only +394 BTC, roughly 1% of the standard-contract short, while a weakening basis trade may explain much of the broader shift in positioning.
A widely shared bullish signal from CME Bitcoin futures has been corrected, but the revised data still points to a notable change in institutional positioning.
CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju initially reported that hedge funds had flipped net long Bitcoin futures, calling the move rare because funds have historically remained structurally short through the CME basis trade.
Hours later, Ju corrected the analysis, explaining that he had mislabeled Total Reportables as Leveraged Funds.
The distinction materially changes the headline.
CFTC Total Reportables, which capture large reportable traders across several categories, are modestly net long Bitcoin futures as of Aug. 4. Leveraged funds, the category more closely associated with hedge funds and other leveraged strategies, have not turned net long.
What has changed is the size of their shorts.
Leveraged Funds Remain 36,200 BTC Net Short
Leveraged funds held 4,243 long contracts against 11,483 short contracts in standard CME Bitcoin futures as of Aug. 4, according to the figures highlighted in Ju’s correction.
That leaves a net short position of 7,240 contracts.
Each standard CME Bitcoin futures contract represents five BTC, putting the net short at approximately 36,200 BTC.
The CFTC’s Traders in Financial Futures framework specifically separates positions held by dealers, asset managers, leveraged funds, and other reportable traders, making it more appropriate for assessing hedge-fund positioning than the broader legacy categories.
However, Ju’s more important observation is the trend: leveraged funds’ net short exposure has fallen by roughly 50% in Bitcoin terms over the past year.
That suggests one of the biggest structural sources of CME Bitcoin shorts is fading, even if hedge funds have not become outright bullish.
Micro Bitcoin futures provide little evidence of a directional reversal, either. Leveraged funds are net long roughly 3,943 Micro contracts, equivalent to just 394 BTC, because each contract represents 0.1 BTC.
That is only about 1% of their 36,200 BTC standard futures short.
Why the CME Basis Trade Is Unwinding
The decline in shorts may have less to do with funds making a straightforward bullish bet on Bitcoin and more to do with the declining profitability of the basis trade.
The strategy typically involves buying spot Bitcoin or a spot Bitcoin ETF while shorting CME futures, capturing the premium between futures and spot prices without taking a large directional exposure.
Earlier this year, CME Bitcoin futures open interest fell below $8 billion, reaching about $7.2 billion in early April, while March futures volume dropped to $163 billion, nearly 50% below its January 2025 peak. The contraction coincided with a sharp compression in the futures basis.
At the time, the annualized rate was around 5%, versus roughly 4.5% for risk-free yields, leaving little incentive after accounting for financing and capital costs.
Ju now argues that the basis has fallen below Treasury yields, making the trade even less attractive.
That means shrinking leveraged-fund shorts could reflect carry-trade unwinds, more bullish directional positioning, or both. The CFTC numbers alone cannot separate the two.
Does This Put $100K Bitcoin Back in Play?
Bitcoin traded around $64,210 at the time of writing, leaving BTC roughly 56% below the $100,000 threshold.
The corrected futures data does not establish a $100,000 target. But it removes one persistent feature of the institutional derivatives market: increasingly large hedge-fund shorts created by profitable basis trades.
The bullish signal is therefore narrower than Ju initially suggested.
Hedge funds have not flipped long. Their structural shorts have simply been cut roughly in half, while the broader group of large CME traders has moved modestly net long.
For $100,000 to become more than a derivatives-positioning story, that shift would still need confirmation from sustained spot buying, ETF demand, and expanding liquidity.
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Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
