Key Takeaways
- Santiment data shows Bitcoin whales and sharks have cut holdings sharply.
- Benjamin Cowen warned any bounce could be temporary, saying the cycle may not bottom until October 2026.
- Bitcoin slid to its lowest level since October 2024.
Bitcoin slid to its lowest level since October 2024 this week. The drop has deepened fears that the asset may be entering a prolonged bear phase, as large holders continue to reduce exposure even while small retail buyers keep accumulating.
Data from crypto analytics firm Santiment showed wallets associated with whales and sharks have fallen to their lowest share of Bitcoin supply in nine months, a shift they warn is historically linked to longer downturns.
Santiment Issues Bearish Bitcoin Whale Warning
Santiment attributed the latest downturn to a clear divergence between large holders distributing and smaller investors continuing to buy the dip, a combination it said often defines bearish market cycles.
The firm said that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin — often used as a proxy for whales and sharks — now control a reduced share of overall supply.
“Whale and shark wallets holding 10-10,000 Bitcoin now hold a 9-month low 68.04% of the entire BTC supply,” Santiment said, adding that this included “a dump of -81,068 BTC in just the past 8 days alone.”
At the same time, Santiment said smaller “shrimp” wallets holding less than 0.01 bitcoin were still increasing their holdings, suggesting retail demand has not fully capitulated.
“Meanwhile, shrimp wallets holding less than 0.01 Bitcoin now hold a 20-month high of 0.249% of the entire $BTC supply,” Santiment said.
Santiment argued that this divergence is often what creates a longer bear-market dynamic.
“This combination of key stakeholders selling and retail buying is what historically creates bear cycles,” the firm said.
“Until there is a sign of clear capitulation from the crowd, smart money will continue to gladly sell off their bags and not have any urgency to buy back in until the crowd has decided to move on from crypto,” it added.
Analyst Flags October 2026 As Possible Bear-Market Low
As well as a decline in Bitcoin whales, some analysts have pointed to history as a guide for how long the current downturn could last, with popular crypto strategist Benjamin Cowen suggesting the market may not bottom until late 2026.
“Bear markets suck. They don’t last forever though. Better times will come,” he wrote.
“Still think October 2026 is a good candidate for a major market low, but open minded to sooner if the meltdown accelerates,” Cowen added.
Cowen said the current Bitcoin downturn may follow a familiar historical pattern, arguing that even if prices rebound in the near term, any rally is likely to be temporary.
“Every cycle is the same,” Cowen wrote.
“Yes, crypto could bounce. And honestly, it would be great for sentiment if it could. But even if it does, it would most likely result in a macro lower high,” he added.
He pointed to long-term technical levels, claiming Bitcoin historically moves through key weekly moving averages during bear markets.
“When BTC drops below the 50W moving average, it then goes to the 100W moving average, spends a little time there, then goes to the 200W moving average,” Cowen said.
“Every cycle is eventually the same,” he added.
Victor Olanrewaju, an analyst at CCN, said the key question is no longer whether Bitcoin is in a bear market — but how long it may last.
“The bigger question now is duration, not direction,” Olanrewaju wrote. “Analysts are increasingly framing the market as moving from distribution into despair, a familiar late-cycle transition.”
Olanrewaju noted that Bitcoin bear markets have historically produced steep peak-to-trough declines.
“Historically, Bitcoin bear markets carve out 75% to 85% peak-to-trough drawdowns,” he wrote.
“By that measure, the current 50% decline is mild. But the speed is what’s different,” he added.
Olanrewaju pointed to the scale of the recent wipeout as a signal that the market may be shifting into a slower recovery cycle.
“Roughly $500 billion in crypto market value was erased in a single week, a pace that typically leads not to V-shaped recoveries, but to long, grinding accumulation phases,” he wrote.
Bitcoin Future Outlook
Olanrewaju said that whether or not Bitcoin ultimately follows prior cycles, the price action has already shifted the market narrative toward a more defensive phase.
“Whether history repeats exactly or not, one thing is clear,” he wrote. “For now, Bitcoin’s price has fallen to a level that defines the post-2021 recovery narrative.”
He added that Bitcoin remains technically vulnerable unless it can reclaim a key level that traders associate with the previous cycle’s highs.
“Until it reclaims $69,000, rallies are likely to be treated as counter-trend moves,” Olanrewaju wrote.
“What comes next looks less like a bounce and more like the opening chapter of a crypto winter defined by patience, balance-sheet repair, and selective survival,” he added.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
