Over the past year, investors have sold billions more altcoins than they’ve bought on exchanges—a stark sign of a market leaning heavily toward the bears.
Retail investors have largely exited, “smart money” has rotated into Bitcoin, and institutional interest in altcoins remains practically nonexistent.
This prolonged, one-sided selling echoes patterns from past bear markets, suggesting that for now, buyers are nowhere to be seen.
As bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the market, key metrics are signaling that the crypto winter could extend longer than many hoped.
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Over the last 13 months, net selling on spot exchanges totals $209 billion.
At the start of January, buy and sell volumes were near zero, indicating a balanced market.
Over the past year, however, selling has dominated, reflecting heavy downward pressure.
Altcoin selling pressure peaks at a 5-year high. Credit: CryptoQuant.
Retail investors who jumped into altcoins during bull-market hype have mostly stepped back or sold out.
Analysts note that this capital has either moved into Bitcoin or stablecoins, with no signs of institutional accumulation.
“Retail is out. Smart money rotated. No institutional alt accumulation in sight. This is not a dip. It’s 13 months of continuous net selling on CEX spot,” one analyst noted.
CryptoQuant’s Bull Score Index has dropped to zero—the most bearish reading in its history.
Long-term holders are selling near breakeven, and realized losses spiked when prices broke lower.
Analysts warn the altcoin bloodbath could impact Bitcoin, potentially testing $60,000 or sliding toward an “ultimate” bear bottom around $55,000, aligning with the average cost basis of largely unmoved coins.
Lessons from Previous Market Cycles
Since the Oct. 10, 2025 crash, the crypto market has been in a bearish zone—nearly 45% below BTC’s all-time high and more than 80% below most altcoins’ ATHs.
Historically, a decline of over 50% from BTC’s cycle ATH marks a bear market, a level BTC dipped below earlier this year.
Patterns from previous cycles illustrate consistent behavior:
2016–2018: Post-2016 halving, Bitcoin peaked in 2017 at ~$18,000. The 2018 bear saw BTC drop 84%, altcoins even more, with retail panic and absent institutions. Accumulation only started after more than a year of grinding lower.
2020–2022: The 2020 halving led to the 2021 bull run, with Bitcoin at $69,000 and altcoins surging over 1,000% in months. The 2022 bear, triggered by FTX’s collapse, saw sustained altcoin selling and rising BTC dominance. The market bottomed in November 2022 before the next leg up in 2024–2025.
Heavy selling today mirrors past late-stage bear-market behavior, driven by retail exits and institutions moving to safer assets.
Historically, these periods don’t end overnight—they shake out weak hands, and only once selling dries up does accumulation quietly begin, often after widespread investor despair.
Prashant Jha is a seasoned crypto journalist based in Delhi, India, with a Bachelor’s Degree in Computer Science Engineering. Passionate about the evolving world of blockchain and cryptocurrencies, he has been a dedicated voice in the industry since 2018. Prashant’s expertise lies in regulatory reporting, where he unravels complex legal and financial developments with clarity and precision. Before joining CCN in 2024, he honed his craft at Cointelegraph, establishing himself as a trusted name in crypto journalism.
His coverage spans major industry events, including the high-profile collapses of FTX, Three Arrows Capital (3AC), and LUNA, offering readers insightful analyses of their regulatory and market implications. Prashant’s technical background enables him to bridge the gap between intricate blockchain technology and its real-world applications, making his work accessible to novices and experts.
Beyond his professional pursuits, Prashant is an avid music enthusiast, often exploring diverse genres to unwind. A sports lover, he has a particular passion for cricket and frequently engages in discussions about the game. His multifaceted interests and sharp journalistic instincts make him a valuable contributor to CCN, where he continues shaping the crypto landscape's narrative.
