XRP bounced, but structure stays bearish | Credit: Hameem Sarwar
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Key Takeaways
Despite Ripple’s CFTC advisory role and fresh inflows, XRP’s price continues to fall.
Standard Chartered cut its 2026 XRP target $2.80, weakening the near-term narrative.
XRP remains below key EMAs and Fibonacci levels, confirming a broader daily downtrend.
XRP is caught in a messy tug-of-war between institutional validation and a market that still wants to sell rallies.
This has happened despite Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse landing a seat on the CFTC’s Innovation Advisory Committee.
At the time of writing, XRP is trading around $1.47, and the path to $2 this month looks more like impossible.
XRP Prediction Slashed Despite Inflow
The bigger hit to the $2 narrative came from Standard Chartered. On Feb. 16, the bank marked down its XRP outlook, cutting its end-2026 target from $8 to $2.80.
The message wasn’t that XRP is “done.” It was that February’s rout that changed the sentiment.
Despite that, Garlinghouse’s CFTC appointment is still a strategic win, but the market treated it like background noise. The role is advisory, not a fast-track regulatory greenlight, and traders priced it accordingly.
XRP’s price popped briefly, then dropped — a familiar “buy the rumour, sell the news” reaction.
But still, this does not mean that XRP’s price will increase.
Levels to Watch
Looking at the heatmap, CCN observed that large clusters of XRP supply accumulated over time, with brighter yellow bands indicating higher cost basis concentrations.
From mid-2025 through late-2025, a very dense band formed between roughly $2.35 and $2.76. That area repeatedly lit up as price consolidated and traded sideways, meaning a large amount of supply changed hands there.
Below the current price, lighter yet still meaningful accumulation bands are forming around the $1.60 to $1.93 region.
However, you can already see new horizontal streaks forming at the recent lows. That suggests fresh accumulation is beginning to occur at these depressed levels.
XRP Cost Basis Distribution Heatmap | Credit: Glassnode
Therefore, if the altcoin continues to drift lower, that region becomes the next major demand cluster.
Structurally, XRP has transitioned from distribution at the top range to a reset phase. However, a sustained rebound to $2 looks increasingly unlikely.
Negative Sentiment, Falling XRP Price
Amid this, Weighted sentiment provides useful context. During the December and early January push higher, sentiment spiked in step with price strength, suggesting speculative optimism.
However, as XRP’s price dropped, sentiment also printed lower highs, indicating fading conviction on rallies.
The deep negative sentiment reading during the early February flush coincided with the local bottom, which is typical of short-term capitulation phases.
The recent bounce has lifted sentiment back toward neutral. However, it has not reached the extreme optimism levels seen at prior local tops.
That suggests the move so far looks more like a relief rally than the start of a confirmed trend reversal.
Whether this evolves into a sustainable recovery depends on XRP’s ability to reclaim overhead resistance zones. By the look of things, the altcoin might struggle to do that.
XRP Price Outlook: No Recovery
Meanwhile, XRP remains structurally bearish on the daily timeframe despite the recent bounce.
After topping near the 0.786 fib at around $3.11, the price has been printing lower highs and lower lows.
The recent leg down from the 0.5 region ($2.39) produced a selloff of roughly 48%, bottoming near %1.12, which aligns with the macro range low.
That move also came with a breakdown below the 0.382 ($2.09) and 0.236 ($1.72) Fibonacci levels, confirming loss of mid-range support.
Right now, XRP’s price is trading around $1.45, still below both the 20 EMA ($1.53) and 50 EMA ($1.72).
The 20 EMA is below the 50 EMA, and both are sloping downward, which keeps the short- to mid-term trend bearish.
The recent bounce looks like a relief rally into notable resistance rather than a confirmed reversal.
As it stands, this is a counter-trend bounce inside a broader daily downtrend. The macro-range low around $1.12 remains the key support; losing it would reopen downside continuation
For structure to improve, XRP would need to reclaim $1.53 first (20 EMA), then push back above $1.72 (0.236 fib + 50 EMA cluster).
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Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Victor Olanrewaju is a crypto analyst and reporter at CCN with deep roots in on-chain research and technical analysis. His crypto journey began in 2017, but it was the 2020 Uniswap airdrop that sparked a full-time pivot into the space.
With a foundation in copywriting, Victor honed his craft creating high-converting content for leading crypto brokers — most notably an XRP price prediction that ranked #1 on Google during the 2021 bull run.
He later joined AMBCrypto in 2022, where he combined storytelling with technical and on-chain analysis to cover key market narratives.
In 2024, he expanded his expertise at BeInCrypto, collaborating with analysts and using tools like Glassnode, Santiment, and IntoTheBlock to break down Bitcoin and altcoin trends.
At CCN, Victor covers the top cryptocurrencies, memecoins, macro shifts, blending real-time insights with deep-dive metrics.
He holds a Bachelor’s degree in Physics from the University of Ibadan, equipping him to simplify complex data for a wide audience. Follow his work or connect on LinkedIn or X.
