Key Takeaways
- Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer projects Bitcoin will reach $300,000 by 2029 under his long-term price model.
- The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Sept. 28, while Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed after a $2.39 billion week.
- His latest assessment follows a warning that 2026 could be a “year off.”
Bitcoin could reach $300,000 by 2029, according to Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer, who sees signs that a new bull market has begun after the cryptocurrency’s prolonged downturn.
However, the market now faces the question of whether the recovery can hold as US bond yields climb to levels last seen in 2007.
The US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.24% on Sept. 28, its highest level since 2007, according to the Associated Press.
Rising yields have put pressure on risk assets even as investors return to Bitcoin funds.
Fidelity Strategist’s Model Points to $300K Bitcoin
In his market newsletter dated September 21, Timmer said Bitcoin’s power-law model suggested:
“a new cyclical bull market is underway after holding $60k, targeting $300k in 2029.”
The projection would place Bitcoin at five times the $60,000 support level he highlighted, representing a 400% increase from that reference level.
Timmer’s prediction is a multiyear forecast based on his model. His nearer-term $100,000 target comes from a separate technical setup, with its own breakout condition.
What Changed Since Bitcoin’s ‘Year Off’ Warning?
Timmer entered 2026 expecting a potentially difficult period for Bitcoin.
In his December 2025 outlook, he argued that crypto might have completed another four-year halving cycle.
Previous downturns had lasted roughly a year, leading him to suggest that 2026 could bring a similar pause. He identified potential support between $65,000 and $75,000.
That estimate proved too high, with the lows marked on his September chart being approximately $60,000 and $57,700, both below the earlier support range.
However, Timmer had maintained his longer-term optimism even while warning about a downturn.
In a separate September post, Timmer pointed to Bitcoin’s recovery from the broader $60,000 support zone and a positive turn in the Z-score of its ratio to gold.
The $100K Bitcoin Target Has a Breakout Condition
For the shorter-term trade, Timmer identified resistance around $80,000.
A breakthrough in that area, he argued, would confirm a double-bottom pattern targeting $100,000.
Using rounded levels, a pattern stretching from $60,000 to $80,000 has a depth of $20,000. Adding that distance to the breakout level produces a $100,000 target.
The same distinction applies to the larger $300,000 forecast; it depends on Bitcoin continuing to follow the relationship described by Timmer’s model.
A Bond Market Shock Complicates the Bull Case
Bitcoin pays no interest, giving investors a reason to weigh it against Treasuries yielding more than 5%.
In his September 21 newsletter, Timmer said the “risk-reward math has gotten considerably better” for bond investors.
He also placed “Bitcoin and commodities” among the leaders in his diversified portfolio, even as he warned that the inflation-adjusted Treasury yield had risen above his estimate of US potential growth.
However, investors have continued to buy BTC funds.
Farside Investors recorded $2.39 billion in net inflows last week and a smaller $31 million on Sept. 28.
The next test is whether that demand can sustain Bitcoin’s move above Timmer’s $80,000 breakout level while Treasury yields remain high.
Kurt Robson is a London-based reporter at CCN, specialising in the fast-moving worlds of crypto and emerging technology. He began his career covering local news in Cornwall after graduating from Falmouth University with First Class Honours in Journalism. There, he cut his teeth on everything from council meetings to missing swans.
He quickly rose through the ranks to become a frontline journalist at several of the UK’s leading national newspapers. Over the years, he has interviewed musicians and celebrities, reported from courtrooms and crime scenes, and secured multiple front-page exclusives.
Following the upheaval of the COVID-19 pandemic, Kurt shifted his focus to technology journalism—just ahead of the AI boom. With a natural curiosity and a trained eye for emerging trends, he has found a new rhythm in reporting on innovation.
At CCN, Kurt's work focuses on the cutting edge of crypto, blockchain, AI, and the evolving digital world. Drawing on his background in people-first reporting and his deep interest in disruptive tech, Kurt delivers stories that are insightful, entertaining, and human-centric.
