Bitcoin Price Rebounds Above $82K After $729M ETF Exodus: Is the Sell-Off Over?
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Key Takeaways
Bitcoin’s September recovery has pushed BTC back above $85,000, bringing the $100,000 level back into focus.
Polymarket traders currently price a 25-basis-point Fed hike in October at around 65%, compared with roughly 34% for no change.
Bitcoin has already rallied through one rate hike, suggesting liquidity, ETF demand and positioning may currently matter more than the direction of rates alone.
Bitcoin is knocking on the door of $100,000 again. But before it gets there, traders are increasingly betting that the Federal Reserve will deliver something crypto markets typically dislike: another rate hike.
BTC climbed as high as $87,359 last week, its strongest level in eight months, after spending part of September below $75,000. The rebound has been sharp enough to put six figures within roughly 15% of Bitcoin’s recent high.
At the same time, prediction market traders are moving in the opposite direction on monetary policy.
On Polymarket, a 25-basis-point increase at the Fed’s October meeting is currently priced at about 65%, while no change stands near 34%. Outcomes involving a cut or a larger increase are below 1%. The market has attracted around $15 million in trading volume.
Odds of another Fed rate hike in October surge. | Source: @Polymarket
That creates an unusual setup: Bitcoin traders are rediscovering their appetite for risk just as another dose of monetary tightening is being priced in.
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The Fed already raised rates by 25 basis points on Sept. 16, taking the federal funds target range to 3.75%-4.00%. It cited inflation that “remains elevated” while describing economic activity and domestic spending as resilient.
More importantly, the Fed’s own projections did little to close the door on further tightening.
Officials’ median projection puts the federal funds rate at 4.1% at the end of 2026, up from the 3.8% projected in June. Median PCE inflation is expected to finish the year at 3.7%, while core PCE inflation is projected at 3.4% — both still comfortably above the Fed’s 2% objective.
A further hike would ordinarily be an awkward backdrop for Bitcoin. Higher rates can push bond yields higher, increase the relative appeal of yield-bearing assets and tighten the financial conditions that often support speculative markets.
But Bitcoin has just complicated that playbook.
Bitcoin Is Already Rallying Against the Fed
Rather than collapsing after the September hike, Bitcoin accelerated.
The rally has coincided with renewed spot ETF demand, improving regulatory sentiment and a major short squeeze. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted roughly $593 million during one recent stretch, while hundreds of millions of dollars in bearish crypto positions were forced closed as prices jumped.
That suggests the Fed is only one part of Bitcoin’s current equation.
🇺🇸 LIQUIDITY UPDATE: The Fed has paused its reserve-boosting Treasury bill purchases after buying roughly $215 BILLION since December.
The Fed’s balance sheet is still up about $209B over that period, with some banks expecting purchases to restart in October.
If fresh institutional demand continues absorbing available BTC while leveraged traders chase the move higher, another 25-basis-point hike does not mechanically prevent Bitcoin from reaching $100,000.
The bigger test is what happens after the surprise disappears.
Polymarket’s 65% figure means another hike is increasingly being anticipated rather than arriving completely out of the blue. If October tightening becomes fully priced and Bitcoin still holds its September gains, the $100,000 debate may shift from whether the Fed can stop the rally to whether crypto-specific demand is finally strong enough to overpower it.
Disclaimer:
The information provided in this article is for informational purposes only. It is not intended to be, nor should it be construed as, financial advice. We do not make any warranties regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of this information. All investments involve risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. We recommend consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Dr. Guneet Kaur is a senior editor at CCN.com and a Science Fellow at Exponential Science. She is a fintech and blockchain expert with extensive experience in digital finance education, blockchain ecosystems, and cryptocurrency markets. She has worked with global media such as Cointelegraph, as well as education and blockchain platforms, to design and lead strategic content and learning initiatives. As an educator and assessor for top-tier executive programs, she bridges real-world fintech trends with academic insight.
Dr. Kaur is also a published researcher and peer reviewer across fintech and data science journals, including Financial Innovation Journal and International Journal of Big Data Intelligence and Applications. Her work spans data-driven analysis, Web3 innovation, and technical content development. With a strong foundation in both industry and academia, she translates complex financial technologies into practical applications, empowering learners, professionals, and institutions across the rapidly evolving digital finance landscape.
