Eccentric cybersecurity pioneer and long-time cryptocurrency bull John McAfee just hit a major technical hurdle in his gamble that the Bitcoin price will reach $1 million by mid-2020.
On Thursday, the “McAfee Bitcoin Price Prediction Tracker” — which charts the price of Bitcoin relative to McAfee’s ambitious prediction — fell more than two percent below its anticipated growth trend-line.
This appears to be the first time since McAfee has made his bullish bet that the Bitcoin price has dipped below the steady growth trend-line, and it indicates that McAfee is on track to lose his bet — and face the grisly consequences.
Those consequences — pardon the pun — may be more than McAfee can stomach.
As CCN reported, McAfee first put his, err, skin in the game in July 2017, when he predicted that the Bitcoin price would reach $500,000 within three years from its then-level of $1,800.
“If not, I will eat my d–k on national television,” he proclaimed.
He later doubled down on that prediction in December, claiming that Bitcoin would reach $1 million during the same time frame.
“When I predicted Bitcoin at $500,000 by the end of 2020, it used a model that predicted $5,000 at the end of 2017. BTC has accelerated much faster than my model assumptions,” he said. “I will still eat my d–k if wrong.”
Since then, Bitcoin has entered a significant bear cycle, falling from a peak of nearly $20,000 to a present value of $7,493.
Nevertheless, the former MGT Capital executive has not been deterred by the recent price decline. Last month, he tweeted that he will “ABSOLUTELY!!!” hold up his end of the bargain, arguing that it is a bet that he “cannot possibly [lose].”
Of course, this prediction tracker implies that Bitcoin will see steady growth over the course of the bet. Markets, obviously, do not behave this way, so the fact that the Bitcoin price has dipped slightly does not necessarily spell doom for McAfee (or his member).
However, the trend-line appreciates at a rate of ~0.48 percent per day, and this growth will compound quickly. If Bitcoin remains in its recent purgatory for much longer, it could find itself with significant ground to make up to get back on track.
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