The Chicago Board Options Exchange announced today that it will not be adding any new Bitcoin futures of any kind this month. They went out of their way to announce as much, likely to tamp down the rowdy crypto press, who have a tendency to latch onto stories and run with them.
CFE is not adding a Cboe Bitcoin (USD) (“XBT”) futures contractfor trading in March 2019.CFE is assessing its approach with respect to how it plans to continue to offer digital asset derivatives for trading. While it considers its next steps, CFE does not currently intend to list additional XBT futures contracts for trading. Currently listed XBT futures contracts remain available for trading.
New contracts were added in many other categories, including Volatility Index futures. Funny, it seems a Bitcoin ETF would fit in nicely there. Except it doesn’t exist, and won’t for an indeterminate amount of time. Index funds are more popular anyway, according to Investopedia.
But the hotly anticipated Bitcoin ETF is the financial vaporware of the past couple years. Everyone wants to know when it’s going to happen. The SEC keeps saying it’s not sure. People get frustrated.
Current Bitcoin futures remain available, as noted. The last one expires on June 19th. XBTJ19, which closes next month date-wise, has a settlement price of $3847. The bears might win those shares, as the last closing price shown on the page was $3850. Bitcoin still has a few weeks to pull upwards, and people like Tom Lee think that process will begin sooner than later, with a crescendo in August.
Futures sellers in that market also have plenty of time to change their mind. But, the people on the bear side were prescient, to say the least.
Note: now we veer into the author’s opinion.
The crypto space is full to the brim with people who call a bottom or a top here and there, depending on their philosophical reasoning. With losses topping 50%, you’ll see people arguing that we’re nearing some critical stage or another.
The best route for the individual investor to take is to trust themselves, just as the loud mouths do.
Bitcoin in its present form is a speculative asset, and playing the futures market is a glorious way to prove as much. You can believe in the long-term viability of a crypto economy but still have a pessimistic short-term outlook.
Or you can decide to play to the base and shout grand predictions from the roof top.
It’s a bit of a gamble, but we live in the grand era of bullshit. “Accountability” seems to be a thing of the past. We have an elected leader who’s provably lied more than 1000 times in public.
So CNBC is likely to continue entertaining the notions of Tom Lee, whether he’s right or wrong.
Other pundits are likely to continue making the cracked-out-bull case instead of the rational argument for Bitcoin: sound money, security, and long-term growth.
The opinions expressed in this article belong to the author alone.