Bitcoin price continues consolidating to resistance at $470 (Bitstamp) and 3000 CNY. Technical analysis looks at the significance of these levels and what they suggest for trend.
Time of analysis: 14h00 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
There are some differences in the relative position of price in the various exchange charts. The CNY exchanges are at their 3000 CNY psych level, whereas most of the USD exchanges are still below their equivalent psych level at $500 – but hitting a horizontal resistance level at the December top. This level is at $470 in the Bitstamp chart.
The current juncture of price is, therefore, one where we can expect to see a reaction – either reversal back into decline, or a large correction before price proceeds higher.
It is easy – in hindsight – to identify the optimal entry points into the advance since 9 April. Yet, it is no crime to find reasons not to trade – and there were many. It is frustrating to sit out a profitable move, but caution, and staying out of the market, has never lost anyone money. Even when in doubt, 50:50 (BTC vs fiat) funds allocation means that half of a bitcoin trader’s holdings (BTC) will appreciate during a price rise when the trader may lack the conviction to trade the chart.
Despite misgivings, low volume and fundamental concerns, price has now reached a chart position with a high probability opportunity for trade. If trend will continue it should do so, parabolically, after correcting at the 3000 CNY level, and the level of the previous high in the USD charts.
Be patient here. The moment for entry is not yet upon us. The 1-hour (not shown) RSI has diverged on each of the 3 most recent wave highs. In the 1-day chart (above) RSI is reverse diverging to the level of the December market top (blue). This combination of indications at different timeframes weighs in favor of an imminent correction or reversal. The price reaction is probably already underway.
Another outcome is that price again enters a consolidation at the present levels before continuing higher. Let’s follow the price action and look out for the signals that will confirm the significant next move in the chart – whichever way it may go.
The bitcoin price chart has price at significant levels – for different reasons – in the CNY and USD exchanges. The CNY charts have reached a psych level at 3000 CNY, although still below the level of the December top at 3100 CNY.
The USD charts are mostly at the level of the December closing high ($470 Bitstamp).
Profit-taking and adjustments to positioning may see price enter a correction, or even reverse back into decline. If price is to continue higher, it should do so after correcting (probably consolidating) below the levels discussed above.
Prudent traders should wait for the market to complete the correction, and then take position in the subsequent trend – whether up or down.
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Last modified (UTC): April 27, 2016 08:42