Bitcoin Price Slumps On Eve Of Coinbase Halving

July 7, 2016

Update: Headline updated to reference the halving of miners’ coinbase rewards.

Bitcoin price has taken the low road as the market sells off prior to the block reward halving. Bitcoin price, how low will you go?

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Bitcoin Price Analysis

Time of analysis: 15h00 UTC

OKCoin BTC/USD 15-Minute Candle Chart

From the analysis pages of, earlier today:

Bitcoin price has done the expected unexpected and stepped over the edge.

Those lucky so-and-so’s at had a Sell trade open at 04h15 UTC when a valid sell signal (red arrow) was emitted across the timeframes we track (signal restricted to subscribers).

Fib extension targets for the declining price wave are near $600 and $550. The Fib extension tool is drawn across the length of the declining wave that starts at the top-left of the chart.

A wave count for the initial declining wave is annotated: i-ii-iii-iv-v. Now that we have another declining wave unfolding, it is possible to apply Elliott Wave principle to the chart: the initial declining wave is assumed to be wave 1 of decline. A triangle (magenta trendlines) formed wave 2 – a classic bitcoin chart pattern that has defied wave counts since 2012 – its two potential termination points are labeled “B/2”.

Presently we’re in wave 3 of decline – its speed and distance fits with 3rd wave behavior and we can further anticipate that wave 3 will decline to one of the Fib extension targets mentioned above.

Note that today’s wave 3 to the downside does not yet exhibit subwave articulations as we see in wave 1. This implies that it is still in its own internal subwave i with subwave ii now forming and we expect subwaves iii and v (each to the downside) to haul great distance.

An alternate wave count (not annotated) might see the current small upside correction as subwave iv with only one more downside subwave v to follow.

To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate. – Jesse Livermore


That additional decline is due in the bitcoin price chart is not a maybe. The present (15h00 UTC) price pattern and chart indicators are unequivocally bearish. Potential targets await at $600 and $560. Hopefully, we get a bounce from either of these levels when that first unfortunate miner receives his measly half-portion in the coming days.

Bitfinex Depth Chart and Buy/Sell Volume

Click here for the CCN.LA interactive bitcoin-price chart.

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The writer trades Bitcoin. Trade and Investment is risky. CCN.LA accepts no liability for losses incurred as a result of anything written in this Bitcoin price analysis report.

Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
Image from Shutterstock.

Last modified (UTC): July 8, 2016 10:30

Venzen Khaosan @venzen

Market analyst and Open source developer with a keen interest in blockchain technology, consensus mechanisms and the decentralizing effect. He has found a solution to the PKI mechanism. Email me to discuss.