Bitcoin price eeks it out in a narrow range. Some lows, some highs but none of them to a new extreme. The eventual direction of trend remains unclear.
Time of analysis: 12h55 UTC
From the analysis pages of xbt.social, earlier today:
The more this sideways price action unfolds, the less I understand its eventual outcome. Well, it will go either up or down, we know, but due to the fact that price is consolidating, our ability to spot a signal and trade it becomes increasingly unreliable.
The 4hr MAs are compressing to an extent that has not been seen since May 2015, when the resulting sell signal saw price decline from $235 to $220 support, followed by a jagged advance of $100 which was eventually fully retraced.
It is really a case of “price could go either way”. Even decline from current levels may be underwhelming. The bulls are buying every dip, but then sit back – no new high has been forthcoming. The bears are not showing determination either, and the sell-offs appear to be profit-taking from range highs, rather than a campaign of building short positions.
The accompanying chart outlines the current price pattern in a blue rectangle. In one way of looking it resembles a large base for advance, similar to the small rounded rise that precedes an upward spike (e.g. in the magenta circle).
Interpreted in a different way the curving price pattern of lower lows and lower highs resembles the rounded top that often precedes large panicked sell-offs in the bitcoin chart’s history (e.g. inside the orange circle).
The temptation – based on one’s bias – is to interpret the current price pattern as eventually going in your preferred direction. The prudent course of action – with the lowest risk and highest probability of success – is to place a bet on rain only when you hear the thunder and feel the cold squall blowing.
Our tipping points are currently at $432 and $406 (Bitstamp). Either side of these consolidation boundaries lies a potentially profitable trade. In between lies groundhog day.
What do readers think? Please comment below.
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Bitcoin price charts from TradingView.
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